Election Day Open Thread

Here we are. It's finally here. Make sure you get your ballots in, and check in with your co-workers, friends, family, and neighbors -- get their ballots in.

Still holding your ballot? Here's a statewide list of ballot drop boxes.

Use this space to make predictions, talk about any race you like, and look ahead to the fall.

Discuss.

Comments

  • LMAO (unverified)
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    Horse racing:

    I predict Sam Chase wins by a nose. Ted Wheeler over Diane Linn: 58% to 35% Saltzman over Fritz: 54% to 42% Sten over Lister: 49% to 30% Kulo vs. Saxton in the general election

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    If anything it will be interesting to see what the percentage of people who actually vote is. I think it will be between 43-46%. Anyone else want to take a shot and predicting it?

    Also, if anyone hears whether a local news station will be doing webcasts on election night please let me know. I'd like to be able to sit here and watch it (because I'm Korea) while eating my lunch.

  • Steve (unverified)
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    40% - People are realizing even if they vote it doesn't make a difference in politician behavior. At least that is the consensus among my friends, unenlightened as we are.

  • Rural Democrat (unverified)
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    I predict that Dan Davis will win the Second CD race to take on "Go Along Greg" Walden. The question is this--- Will the leaders of the Dem Party - From the Governor on down- Call him on Wednesday to offer campaign apperances and support? Will the DPO get a jump start and right away start directing money and expertise to this candidate?

    I also predict that Ted will barely win tonight. And maybe he won't.

  • Brian (unverified)
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    Kari - How do we see the results of the punditology survey?

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    It's going to be emailed later this morning to those who responded to it.

  • MarkDaMan (unverified)
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    Could the 'low turnout' that everyone is talking about be because a record number of new voters were registered in the '04 presidential election? I have to think that many people that turned out just to vote against George Bush two years ago might not be the kind of voter that turns out for anything but major presidential elections.

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    Mark,

    Nice observation. Yes, based on what we historically know, you are right. Turnout is always lower in mid-term contests, and it's going to be especially low if new voters were pulled into the system by a high profile, high intensity contest (as in 2004).

    Another cause may be voter unhappiness. Much as we hear about voters penalizing incumbents, in general it's hard to get citizens to turn out to vote AGAINST someone. It's much easier to mobilize voters to cast a positive vote FOR someone.

    == My prediction:

    1) I'll finally meet Kari and Jeff face to face at the Mult. Co. Dem. headquarters.

    2) I'll nail down Kulo vs. Saxton debate at Reed College this fall. Ha ha ha!

  • Ben Dover (unverified)
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    How can people be so lazy as to not fill out, sign and mail their ballots? Oregon has made it so easy and inexpensive to vote, there is no excuse for those failing to do so. I remember having to take time off work to stand in long lines at the local elementary school to cast my votes. Man, people are so apathetic these days, it's ridiculous!

  • Barbara Capelci (unverified)
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    Two runoffs for City Council:

    Fritz and Saltzman Sten and Burdick

    If an "anti-tax gadfly" (credit to Kari on that one) like Lister can make a run-off, which I doubt, he'll be crucified in the scrutiny of Portland politics. Lister (paraphrasing): "I've never debated anyone in my life." "I don't think there is a homeless problem." "I moved my business to save $3300 a year, and now I'm mad at the City because of how much it costs to commute." Let's get him and Boyles together on Blind Date and see if there's a love connection.

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    It amazes me how people's cynicism gets in the way of actually electing someone we can all support. I've heard over and over again from friends and aquaintances that they were interested in Jim Hill, but were not going to vote for him because he had no chance. Well, guess what? Jim could have had a real chance if everyone who said they thought he was interesting would cast their ballot in his favor. Good, well intentioned democrats sabotaged Howard Dean and will do it to Hilary Clinton as well because of some witches brew of Monday morning quarterbacking and a healthy dose of "punditry." Sometime we just have to "release the cheeks" and think outside the box, friends.

    On another note, I know it's not likely that Diane Linn will win her race. But I want to point out that the woman went out on a long, skinny limb to grant marriage licences to our GLBT friends. That is no small feat. It takes bold, bold moves to create change and that one tops my list. If one group fails to reach the top, we all fail - she recognized that. That deserves reward and another chance to do it all better.

  • Kim (unverified)
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    Karol - I agree w/you regarding Diane. But I'm not voting for Hill - not because I don't think he has a chance in the general, but because he ran a terrible campaign. I heard why he thinks I shouldn't vote for Ted but not why I should vote for him. I'm voting for Ted.

  • Winston Wolfe (unverified)
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    Linn beats Wheeler 48% to 47% (Tom Cox gets 5% of the vote to upset Wheeler)

    Saltzman best Fritz 58% to 40% (Fritz manages to Miss Congeniality award)

    Sten wins with a plurality of the vote (Burdick/Lister split the Anti-Miss Congeniality award after the Oregonian runs conversation where they are quoted saying (Burdick) "I can't believe that Gap-toothed 12 year old won" (Lister) "Yeah I heard that garden Gnome actually took a last minute donation from Emily Boyles")

    Kulongoski wins 45% to 42% over Hill (Sorenson forever know as the poor man's Tom Cox)

    Mannix wins 33% to 32% over Saxton (Only decided after a month long recount and hanging chads in Morrow County. Unfortunately for Mannix his Sugar Daddy, now impotent Loren Park, dies because of the stress of the recount and lack of sex. Even worst Parks leaves his vast fortune the Mustang Ranch so he can have his ashes scattered there.)

    SD 13: Larry George (60%) beats Charles Starr (40%) (Bruce Starr refuse to sit by him at lunch in the Republican caucus room.)

    SD 17: Avakian wins barley against Chase 54% to 46% (Voters side with Avakian because of the final debate where Avakian used his patented "No, I'm smarter than you times infinity, plus one!")

    SD 24: In the biggest heart-break for the Blue Oregon Crowd Jesse Cornett loses to the shady Rod Monroe 60% to 40% (Jefferson Smith goes on a 4 day bender when he realizes that he really isn't that important).

    HD 27: Reed beats Bohan by a nose 51% to 49% (Oregonians are shocked at Reed's acceptance speech when he rips off the rubber mask he as been wearing to reveal....Phil Knight! The next morning Nike invades Beaverton!)

    HD 44: Tina Koteck wins over Mark Kirchmeier 50% to 43% (Mark doesn't mope to long after Gary Hanson gives him his collection of Hawaiian shirts.)

    HD 46: Big Labor candidate Mary Botkin manages to win with less than 25% of the vote in a very crowded primary (the only way labor unions still can have an effect in elections)

    HD 51: 22 year old Ryan Olds wins overwhelmingly in this swing district (Future Pac sends their congratulations which is the last thing they give him until they send there condolences on November 8th.)

    "If I get my car back any different than I gave it, Monster Joe's gonna be disposing of two bodies."

  • LT (unverified)
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    A friend just sent me this email:

    OregonLive/AP have tonights election nights posted – testing computers or hell has frozen over?

    http://www.oregonlive.com/elections/electioncoverage/?ALLraces

    Some of the results I like (none of the 3 major GOP candidates wins GOP Gov. primary which is funny) and some I don't (Chuck B. deserves a lot better results than he has there, and Jesse C. loses).

    Will be interesting to see how long that stays on the website.

    And for David English, Statesman-Journal.com is having an election night blog, and KATU.com, KGW.com etc. might be worth checking out.

  • keyfur (unverified)
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    karol says: It amazes me how people's cynicism gets in the way of actually electing someone we can all support. I've heard over and over again from friends and aquaintances that they were interested in Jim Hill, but were not going to vote for him because he had no chance. Well, guess what? Jim could have had a real chance if everyone who said they thought he was interesting would cast their ballot in his favor.

    i agree 100%, but replace hill's name with sorenson's. hell, i guess i even agree with hill's name still in the comment. it is one of the things that makes me mad about our current system - people will not vote for the "best" candidate because of political gamesmanship. am i niave to think that once in our distant past people voted for ideas and not for strategery?

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    Ben-I agree with you, but the truth is apathy is sometimes a reason. I guess laziness could be as well.

    Karol-I was actually thinking about voting for Hill before the last debate. As someone who wasn't very happy with Kulongoski, I wanted to be excited about another candidate. I'll tell you that I thought Hill was stiff as a board in my opinion and didn't seem to know his stuff. Maybe it was poor preperation on the part of his campaign staff, but it really turned me off. Long story short, it wasn't the fact he can't win, it's the fact he failed to attract voters.

    Winston-I think your a bit off on your numbers...I'd put Kulongoski's win at 8-10 points. The Republican side will be aweful close though.

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    Thanks for the tip LT! I'll definately be online here in Seoul watching the results.

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    Winston

    Tom Cox is running for Metro not County Chair so it will be hard for him to spoil things for Ted. Ted Wheeler Wins by your logic. Plus Jesse's race will be a ton closer because Jefferson is more important that you think. I think it’s too close to call. Not how important Jefferson is but is Jesse or Rod will win.

    Other than that I think you are a genius.

  • LT (unverified)
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    OK, all you fans of Future Pac, explain why Winston is wrong about this --not the election result which we don't know yet, but about the perception many have of FP:

    "HD 51: 22 year old Ryan Olds wins overwhelmingly in this swing district (Future Pac sends their congratulations which is the last thing they give him until they send there condolences on November 8th.)"

  • My Eyes Hurt (unverified)
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    I predict we all spend way too much time here flattering ourselves. That being said - I'm still here?

  • Kim (unverified)
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    Winston: What in the world does Jefferson have to do w/that race? Seriously?

  • David (unverified)
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    My Projections:

    Governor (D): Kulongoski. After all that, Teddy cruises to a relatively easy win.

    Governor (R): Mannix. This one is practically impossible to call at this point and surprsingly even Atkinson could win this one. Still, Mannix has the best grassroots organization and the support of nearly all of the important conservative interest groups, so my guess is he wins.

    Schools: Castillo outright. It won't even be close.

    Supreme Court: Linder/Hallman Runoff. Linder will likely finish first, the question is does she get enough votes to avoid a runoff. My guess is the unqualified Roberts languishes to third.

    State House 27 (D): Read. Mike has put up a bit of a fight but I think Read wins this one fairly comfortably.

    State House 44 (D): Kotek. Tina noses out Mark for the nod.

    State House 46 (D): Cannon. Rhodes Scholar Ben Cannon leaps to the top of a crowded field due to the fact that he stands alone in several categories.

    State Senate 13 (R): Starr. He's a bit past his prime but my bet is the R's don't rock the boat and renominate him.

    State Senate 17 (D): Avakian. Many other years Sam Chase would win this race, but Avakian is simply too talented and strong a candidate not to win here.

    State Senate 24 (D): Cornett. Political oldtimer Rod Monroe has won and lost more races than probably the rest of all the candidates combined. This time, however, he will be nosed out by Oregon Bus Project (www.busproject.org) co-founder and all around awesome guy Jesse Cornett.

    Portland (Sten's Seat): Sten outright. With the complete collapse of Boyles and the surprising ineptitude with which Burdick has run her campaign, Sten will at worst get 45% of the vote and has a 50-50 chance of avoiding a runoff.

    Portland (Saltzman's Seat): Saltzman outright. Well-meaning yet unrealistic challenger Amanda Fritz has put on a good try but she falls well short here.

    Multnomah County (Chair): Wheeler outright. When Linn's biggest supporters are only half heartedly supporting her, you know she's probably gone.

    Multnomah County (Dist. 2): Cogen/Hansen runoff. No one will come close to a majority in the primary but I think this fall's runoff will be that.

    Multnomah County Auditor: Griffin-Valade outright. Unfortuantely Steve March has picked the wrong race to run at the wrong time. He loses a close one.

    Multnomah County Sheriff: Giusto outright. Giusto streamrolls the two idiots who trying to take him down.

    Metro Dist. 4: Harrington-Cox runoff. My guess is this race will not produce a primary winner but will instead feature a runoff between what are clearly the two top candidates.

    Metro Auditor: Flynn outright. I love Alexis, and she has been unfairly smeared IMHO, but I just can't see her winning this one.

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    Predictions I wouldn't wager a nickel on:

    Ted by over 15%. Saxton by over 10%. I don't think these will even be close.

    Wheeler creams Linn despite not getting a single LGBT vote. Another single-issue group once again gets the shaft thanks to their political naivete.

    Sten gets a convincing plurality, but I think 50% is just out of reach. S: 48%, B: 19%, L: 27%

    Saltzman gets by Frist though, 52%-45%

    Avakian beats Chase.

    Cornett beats a warmed over Monroe.

    Kotek beats Kirchmeier.

    With women and labor splitting all over, Cannon emerges from the crowded pack.

    I see a lot of folks thinking Charles Starr has finally had it, but being from out that way I can't believe it; Crazy Chuck is just such a fixture. I think he ekes this one out too.

  • Winston Wolfe (unverified)
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    Thanks Joe,

    But regardless if Cornett wins or not Smith will still go on a four day bender.

    Kim,

    Jefferson Smith is founder of the Oregon Bus Project which gets the majority of its support in SD 24. If Smith can't pull out a win in his backyard with a great young candidate...well then the bus looks rather ineffective, thus Jefferson is not that important.

    LT,

    In defense of Future Pac Olds has as much chance winning as Darth Vader has in beating Dan Gardner for Labor Commissioner (which isn't that bad...LITTLE KNOW FACT: Darth Vader is a member of SEIU.)

    "How about you Lash Larue? Can you keep your spurs from jingling and jangling?"

  • NNW (unverified)
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    I think Wheeler suppoters have a big surprise in store...

    Rich boys rarely walk in p-town!

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    Ok, I have thought that the odds were always on the side of Mannix in the R primary. Yet some things are changing. My sources say the Mannix campaign fired a few people over the weekend and that is never a good sign. There is also always a latent conservative vote that does not show up in tracking polls. That is between 10 and 20% in the Republican primary. That hurts Saxton.

    So, first long shot... 33% Atkinson, 32% Saxton, 31% Mannix. The rest to Ames.

    Kulongouski wins pretty easily.

    Larry George wins by 15%

    Linn defeats Wheeler.

    Saltzman and Sten hold on.

    Hansen will regain his old seat. Maybe not in the primary but in the end he will. He fits his district.

    Second long shot... Cornett wins. It is a new generation all around.

    yip yip

  • Winston Wolfe (unverified)
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    Nice to see you off reservation Coyote.

    I hope Atkinson wins your primary. There is nothing more fun then beating the crap out of a silver spooned Frat Boy.

    But your numbers don't add up. According to all the polls 6% to 10% of respondents are going to vote for "The Others" in the race. Those guys are the true believers (I.E. HARD CORE CONERVATIVES!). Don’t they suck off the base of Atkinson’s (and Mannix’s) support?

    Good Luck tonight.

    "Now I drive real f**kin' fast, so keep up."

  • LMAO (unverified)
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    "Linn defeats Wheeler"...In the primary?

    What are you smoking and where did you buy it?

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    Survey USA (KATU)just released new poll results from yesterday. It is an automated poll and in fact I was called and participated in the poll. The Results:

    Kulongoski 48% Hill 27 Sorenson 17 Undecided 17

    Saxton 36 Atkinson 26 Mannix 24 Other 11 undecided 4

    Let's compare this tonight. Keep in mind that when the call came in at least half of the vote was already in.

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    Winston wrote: Jefferson Smith is founder of the Oregon Bus Project which gets the majority of its support in SD 24.

    Dude, you are smoking some seriously wacky weed. The Bus has volunteers from all over the metro region.

  • Clinton (unverified)
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    Nate Currie said: "Wheeler creams Linn despite not getting a single LGBT vote. Another single-issue group once again gets the shaft thanks to their political naivete."

    I know at least one gay man, two lesbians, and an otherwise queer individual that voted for Wheeler. (I would also count my two straight parents that voted for Wheeler since I can't).

    I wouldn't call it naivete. I'd write that sentance like this: "Another Single-Issue Group draws out a single issue- Sexual Orientation (identities in general) are not the only things Multnomahites, LGBT or otherwise, care about."

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    I'm auto dialing for Jesse (perhaps I shouldn't be doing both at the same time) but think he's in a strong position to win. The responses in the past 48 hrs have been overwhelmingly positive.

    LT, I don't think you're likely to see that much of a spirited defense of FuturePAC here today as most FuturePAC fans are actually out campaigning and phone banking.

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    I was under the impression that the sexual minority vote was pretty solid in support of Linn. The two things making me think that were the very forceful Just Out endorsement and the number of times it's been implied that I'm a homophobe for suggesting that Linn is incompetent.

    The naivete comment was more in reference to the last two years in general more than just this election. I feel like BRO and others have put all their eggs in what anyone can see is a basket that doesn't have a whole lot holding it together. It's a cause that I firmly believe in (despite my lack of support for Linn) and it saddens me to see it struggling to find traction, and even losing ground, in an environment that is clearly trending towards tolerance and acceptance of sexual minorities.

  • MCR (unverified)
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    Saltzman rolls over Fritz, probably garnering more than 60%. Sten wins plurality, ends up in runoff with Burdick. Unfortunately for county residents, Wheeler wins easily. Kulongowski, Saxton. Voters in HD46 get suckered in by Ben Cannon.

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    1) I'll finally meet Kari and Jeff face to face at the Mult. Co. Dem. headquarters.

    Lure me from my safe lair? Seems unlikely! But it does remind me that whilst perusing the ballot for precinct committeepeople, I did happen to see one Kari Chisholm listed in district. An apparatchik in the making!

  • Chris Nicholson (unverified)
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    Conventional Wisdom has everything correct, except Sten wins it outright, Starr keeps his seat, and Ryan Olds wins (the conventional wisdom gave it to him by only 1 vote, so its essentially a tie). I'm not sure how many of them I got right (outside of the big races where I actually knew the candidates). 4:17 minutes till popcorn time. It's a shame I can't get KGW in California.

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    A long and unblemished* tradition: the predictions.

    Kulongoski 56%, Hill 34%, Sorenson 8% Saxton 44%, Mannix 35%, Atkinson 30% Voison 37%, Davis 32%, Butcher 24%, Silver 7% Jesse Cornett 60%, Rod Monroe 40% Ben Cannon 33%, Mary Lou Hennrich 24%, Mary Botkin, 22%, Wheeler 57%, Linn 43% Sten 48%, Burdick 32%, Lister 20% Saltzman 54%, Fritz 44%

    Now you know what's NOT going to happen.

    <hr/>

    *By accuracy.

  • Lars K. Larson (unverified)
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    [Comment falsely impersonating Lars Larson deleted. -editor.]

  • Wesley Charles (unverified)
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    OK, I'll bite . . .

    Mult Co Chair: Wheeler 53% - Linn 42% - Others 5%

    BlunderWoman falls to Richie Rich who, along with the male winner of County 2, will join Lonnie Roberts and together the Three Amigos will restore some small measure of testosterone to the county commission.

    County Commission 2: Hansen 37%, Cogen 35%, Patterson 18%, Frederick 10%

    No one strong enough to capture 40% in this one. In November, Cogen will need to spend every dime and more to overcome Gary Hansen's long and familiar relationship with this county commission district, which he used to represent before county charter term limits sent him to Salem for rehab.

    City Council #2: Sten 42% - Burdick 29% - Lister 21% - Boyles & Others 8%

    If more of "East Side Guy" Lister's lawn signs had been planted on Eastside residential lawns instead of spaced every 100 yards on public right-of-ways like old Burma Shave ads, this might have been more interesting.

    City Council #3: Saltzman 48% - Fritz 38% - Others 14%

    This field is too crowded, and Fritz too strong, for Dan to win outright. Besides, making the general will give Amanda another $200,000 of city tax dollars.

    Senate 24: Rod Monroe 54% - Jesse Cornett 46%

    This is easily the most interesting metro Senate primary, in part because of how these two made the ballot on March 7. Low turnout will hurt Jesse in this district. Those Mid-East County Dems are a more conservative lot than their inner city cousins. This race is a lot like Gary Hansen-Jeff Cogen. Aging, familiar veteran against promising young idealist. East of I-205, those middle-class voters prefer the familiar over the untested.

    • Wes
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    Damn, Jeff, that was pretty good. I'm at home watching the kids anyway. Guess election night partying will have to wait until november. You smoked Winston almost as bad as Wheeler smoked Linn!

    But now Charlie and I can argue about Burdick vs. Sten for a whole summer and fall!

  • Winston Wolfe (unverified)
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    Congrads MCR,

    You nailed every one you called.

    The Wolfe

  • MCR (unverified)
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    Thanks Winston, you didn't do too badly yourself.

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    Winston said, "I hope Atkinson wins your primary. There is nothing more fun then beating the crap out of a silver spooned Frat Boy."

    Well you didn't get your wish, but I'll nominate you for best insult of the year. That actually was pretty funny.

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    Paul wrote: But now Charlie and I can argue about Burdick vs. Sten for a whole summer and fall!

    With Sten getting over 50%, looks like this won't happen after all -- perhaps the real winners in this are the Blue Oregon readers who won't have to wade through these exchanges. :)

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    Winston--

    The Bus did not endorse nor get involved in Senate District 24 race -- as it doesn't get involved in primaries in general -- and your analysis of the bus "getting the majority of its support in SD 24" is just totally wrong. A large part of SD 24 is the Gateway area -- most bus volunteers live close-in SE & NE.

    Jesse Cornett and his large army of dedicated volunteers should be proud of the campaign they ran given the extremely short amount of time they had to take on a 30 year veteran of east county politics.

  • Kim (unverified)
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    Winston - You're a dolt. I know who Jefferson Smith is as I do not live under a rock. The Bus Project had nothing to do with that race because it doesn't get involved in democratic primaries. Clearly you don't know what in the hell you're talking about.

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    Charlie, So let me buy you a beer sometime. I already owe Jeff A.

    Now we can argue my typically wishy washy academic statement that I supported VOE for symbolic reasons but predicted that it would not make a a difference in Portland.

    First VOE election: More diverse candidate pool? Give that a yes. More diverse winner pool? Definitely no. More voter turnout? No. More issue based discussion? unknown. More voter contact? unknown.

    When is our second case? 2007?

    besides, the real goal now is to hold the governorship and pick up seats in the House, right?

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    Paul, I'd like that -- and I'm already starting to waffle on my early morning pledge to never actually drink beer again.

    Some quick VOE observations: 1) Grass roots campaigns=very important. Sten couldn't have gotten over 50% otherwise, and I just didn't see any other candidates put together the same type operation. 2) More diverse volunteer/activist pool. Sten may have been a known commodity among politicos, but a lot of the people showing up to canvass, phone bank & get involved were fresh faces. Certainly that appeared true with Amanda Fritz too. I hope they stick around & stay involved! 3) Using VOE support as a wedge issue against a candidate=NOT a profitable line of attack.

    But yes, you are right. Now's the time to take back the House & do battle with the forces of darkness. Onward!

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