Poll: Kulongoski leads... big

The Oregon AFL-CIO has released a memo outlining the results of a poll (PDF) conducted July 10 to July 13 by Grove Insight.

The poll simply asked respondents whether they viewed the gubernatorial candidates favorably or unfavorably, and whom they would vote for if the election were held today.

On the horse race, Governor Ted Kulongoski leads Ron Saxton 42% to 25%. Ben Westlund clocks in at 5% and Mary Starrett at 2%. 23% were undecided.

On the favorability question, Kulongoski has a 50%/39% split - for a +11 margin. Ron Saxton is viewed favorably by 32%, and unfavorably by 33%, for a -1 margin. Westlund and Starrett have favorables of 15% and 16% respectively, with unfavorables of 11% and 14% -- roughly similar in size.

Discuss.

Comments

  • (Show?)

    One more note: There's a healthy amount of discussion on this over at Loaded Orygun.

  • JHL (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Well this is unexpected... the guv's own consultant does a poll that comes with a full 2-page summary and it's positively glowing? Color me impressed. Maybe next week he'll nab that coveted Easter Bunny endorsement.

    Come on Ted-Campaign! Let's put some work into getting the external polling up instead of focusing on the Potemkin Polls.

  • (Show?)

    JHL, if it's done by Lisa Grove, it's a serious poll. That's her business, and she has a very good reputation.

    Besides, it makes complete sense. Ted has been in trouble with his base for his at times painful devotion to fiscal responsibility while managing the state through these last two years of economic crisis.

    Who are his opponents? One, Westlund, who probably would have acted much like Ted did. And the other, Saxton, who would have acted much much worse.

    There's nothing giving you that old Democratic religion than seeing the very real possibility of electing a modern-day (i.e. idiotic) Republican.

  • Huey (unverified)
    (Show?)

    I know the horse race stories get a lot of attention, but perhaps this poll can be explained by some of the good work Ted's doing: helping build the hydrogen economy, protecting roadless areas, investing in oregon’s infrastructure, cracking down on predatory lenders, fighting for Oregon fisherman, or working to lower price of prescription drugs.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Who is Mary Starrett?

  • anon (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Who is Mary Starrett?

    A candidate within Westlund's margin of error.

  • (Show?)

    Who is Mary Starrett?

    The Constitution Party candidate, former Portland morning TV host, right-wing extremist, and a very serious candidate for Governor. She's going to be a bigger story in this race than Ben Westlund.

  • (Show?)

    Kari,

    Bigger story then Westlund? Wow! Do you mean because the possiblity of her pulling votes of the more conservative Republicans from Westlund?

    I feel so out of the loop being over here. Election night will be crazy and I'm going to miss it! Drats!

  • JTT (unverified)
    (Show?)

    LOL Kari...you're hilarious. Are you bitter that Westlund is gaining momentum or do you really think that? Sounded like something so flippant a teenager would say...

    I haven't heard a peep from Starrett since her announcement. Westlund has been in the papers and on TV ever since.

    Starrett could possibly draw a significant number of votes from Saxton, but she's got to get the money for the ads and the earned media on her campaign. I just don't see it.

  • (Show?)

    4% is gaining momentum? Sounds like spin.

    Please call me when he breaks the 30% mark.

  • (Show?)

    My unscientific survey of Southern Oregon media shows positive Kulongoski coverage. Support for Ted comes from the large highly organized enviro's. Ted's playing well by supporting protection of the Biscuit Fire area and the Kalimeopsis wilderness area. He's also playing well among those who recognize his efforts and successes in economic development. The results of the recent poll accurately reflect that Westland, Saxton and Starrett will divide the Republican vote between them. There has never been a better time in Oregon's history to be a Democrat. Bush bashing trickles down to state and local voters.

    Support Rob Brading. Kick Minnis out of the legislature.

  • (Show?)

    I haven't heard a peep from Starrett since her announcement. Westlund has been in the papers and on TV ever since.

    Uh, JTT, don't you think that supports Kari's point? Starrett hasn't gotten any attention from the press while Westlund has been bathed in it for months and yet they're in a dead heat. We decide elections by votes, not press coverage.

    That said, I am rather shocked that so few people know Westlund--and that so many know Starrett. I think Starrett may well be the major story of the campaign. Interesting...

  • spicey (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Paulie: Support Rob Brading. Kick Minnis out of the legislature

    Hi Paulie, I'd like to see a BlueOregon blog post on this race that talks about what's going on. If you or someone else out there could put it together, it would be much appreciated. How is the campaign going, website address, how people can plug in, what the issues are, etc.

    Spicefully yours....

    btw, neighborhood night out tonight! See you in the park :) Wilshire Park :)

  • Levon (unverified)
    (Show?)

    After reading today's Oregonian (which takes about 5 minutes these days), one wouldn't be too surprised if 18% thought Schwarzenegger has a good chance of holding on to Oregon's gubernatorial seat.

    State and local politics appear to have become just another obscure endeavor with a small band of seriously devoted practitioners and followers.

    While Americans have been historically largely uninvolved and ignorant of state and local politics, the current "national entertainment state" and offspring of the baby-boom generation seem particularly self-absorbed and oblivious to the link between policymaking and their daily lives.

    Ok, gotta' get back to downloading my ipod and catching up on the latest on Mel Gibson.....

  • Jesse O (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Well, if Ted's unfavorables are at 39%, and Saxton's only at 33%, we've got some work to do. Ted's numbers, for an incumbent, aren't that great, and Saxton's within striking distance.

    It's gonna get ugly when Saxton goes full-bore on Ted, and Ted goes full-bore on Saxton. I wouldn't be surprised if both ended up with more unfavorables than favorables.

  • JHL (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Yeah... I guess Kari's right. After all, remember how Jesse Ventura was polling in single digits all the way through September in 1998... And sadly, there was never a poll that showed him winning.

    (I stopped watching after that point. How badly did he get beat?)

  • Zak J. (unverified)
    (Show?)

    JHL, I was in Minnesota when Jesse Ventura won. He won because in Minnesota you can register to vote at the polls on election day and Jesse inspired many, many first-time voters to come out and vote for him. (His campaign ads were brilliant, btw.)

    Also, Jesse's competition was a Democrat (Hoover) who ran on his record of shaking down tobacco companies (not really that popular in MN) and a Democrat-turned-born-again-Republican, Norm Coleman. Both of those candidates took their bases for granted and pandered in ways even the most gullible citizen would see through.

    But Jesse ended up proving what Westlund would: Independents in an executuve position have no power whatsoever to promote their agendas. True, Jesse was terrible at developing a consensus or getting "buy in," but his lack of a party or base would have hamstrung him in any case.

  • JHL (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Zak - as a former Ways & Means Chair, Westlund has more legislative prowess than Ventura did... but the thread is not about effectiveness in office, it's about the gov touting a poll, and I assert that it bears less meaning than suggests it does.

    You said that one reason for Ventura's victory was: Both of those candidates took their bases for granted and pandered in ways even the most gullible citizen would see through.

    Hmm... Do tell.

  • (Show?)

    Ventura was also polling in the single digits until he did a televised debate with the major-party candidates, effectively convincing a plurality that he was competent enough to lead. I see people trot out Ventura as evidence of a lot of things, but it's very hard to compare a national wrestling celebrity with a state legislator from Bend. Not to say Ben wouldn't wow people in a televised debate, but you're comparing apples and oranges.

  • Anon (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Who ever posted this poll is not helping Ted because its clearly full of s***.

    United we stand....huh?

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Kari, I have to disagree with you on the Starrett factor. Quite a few of the far right Republicans embraced Starrett initially, but she has since come out with a couple zingers that are remindful of Ross Perot's paranoid fit over his daughter's wedding. Her initial support, which was basically the extreme right to life faction, are concerned by her statements concerning Bush foreign policy and the use of the National Guard. I don't think she'll get beyond the single digits.

    Westlund, on the other hand, is going to be a major factor in this race, and I believe he will pull way more votes from the governor than from Saxton.

    But what the heck do I know....

  • Billy Joe Bob (unverified)
    (Show?)

    I agree that Starrett will be a major factor, but not because of how well she does. She will get single digits. But, if Saxton loses to either Teddy or Ben by single digits, you could say the Starrett factor spoiled it for Ron.

    Further, the GOP will do very well in legislative races, and Starrett will help, not harm, them. About 10% of the conservative base is just sick of Saxton, for a variety of reasons. Many of these voters might sit out the election, but for a far-right alternative like Starrett. In close legislative races, a few percent could turn a blue district red. If Starrett on the ballot gets these far-right voters voting, odds are most of them are going to also vote for GOP candidates in local races.

    Considering that Westlund will also bring in other "disenfranchised" Republicans, having both Starrett and Westlund on the ballot in addition to Saxton might be good news for Teddy K's re-election bid, but bad news for our legislature.

  • Zak J. (unverified)
    (Show?)

    With both Parental Notification and TABOR on the ballot, I wouldn't expect the conservative base to stay home, at least not in Oregon. Every vote is going to matter.

  • (Show?)
    <h2>Hoover ran for Governor of Minnesota? It was Hubert Humphrey III.</h2>
open discussion

connect with blueoregon