Saxton's 10-Second Stopwatch, Kulongoski's Comeback, plus a new poll!
Kari Chisholm
Three weeks ago, Ron Saxton debuted his first ad of the campaign season -- an attack ad illustrated with a stopwatch and the question: "Can you think of anything Ted Kulongoski accomplished?" Watch it here. (WMV).
Why would a campaign make an ad buy in late August - when most voters aren't paying attention to politics? That's easy - desperation. The only reason that makes sense is that you've got some bad polling, and the national boys aren't being forthcoming with the cash you so desperately need.
So, you make an ad, run it large, do a new poll, and start making waves nationally. But it hasn't exactly worked out so well for Ron Saxton.
After an $800,000 ad buy, Saxton's poll numbers have barely budged. In July, Kulongoski led 49-42 in the Zogby Poll. Today, Ted's beating Ron 48-43 in Zogby's head-to-head. (Details here.) (And, incidentally, when they toss Mary Starrett into the mix, it's 47-40, with Mary at 4.5.)
So, why didn't the massive ad buy work? Maybe because the stopwatch ad just didn't ring true with Oregon voters.
After all, it was an absurd concept - the notion that Ted Kulongoski hadn't accomplished anything. Here at BlueOregon, our comments were chock-full of people rattling off accomplishments.
And now, the Kulongoski folks have responded with a video of their own. Just 10 seconds of the Governor's accomplishments -- in rapid fire succession. (And a super-slo-mo edition, so you can read it all.) Watch it here.
[As usual: I built TedForGov.com, but I don't speak for the Governor or his campaign.]
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9:19 a.m.
Sep 12, '06
I have random thoughts about the Saxton campaign which I considered putting into a post, but maybe this is a better location.
Sort of off topic, but generally within the larger sphere. And I didn't have to yammer on in a post.
1:51 p.m.
Sep 12, '06
I think it's even worse for Saxton than that; Zogby's polling is unreliable. Rasmussen's is, and Ted is consistently holding a double digit lead. And Survey USA puts Ted's favorability at his best in 10 months.
So don't believe Charlie Cook's outfit (or the media who listen to them) when they say the race is still a tossup. That's crap.
Sep 12, '06
The thing I like about the ad is this: every time I play it for someone who is not a politico, they laugh out loud. The ad more than adequately responds to Saxton's attack while staying relentlessly positive and upbeat. And it makes people laugh.
3:58 p.m.
Sep 12, '06
I agree with Bert. Ted's ad is a head on response to Saxton's allegations, which is important, but the playful humor is what makes it work. I hope it starts a trend.
Sep 12, '06
Remember that Barbara Roberts spent her entire media budget in August, which got her enough traction to raise enough money to get a media budget back. Her campaign was a little freakish because there was a more viable third candidate, but she knew she was losing and that she'd have to leverage some momentum or the ship would go down fast. My guess is that Saxton is reading the same tea leaves. My thought is, the more he represents himself in those commercials, the worse the numbers will look. Oh, while I'm at it, I HATE it when people explain that their funding mechanism is "efficiency" and then give you NO detail about where those efficiencies might be found. I wish there was a way to package that criticism neatly in a 30 second spot, but doubt it'd be a big hit.
4:35 a.m.
Sep 13, '06
To add to his accomplishments, in Republicanese, we could also say that Ted kept the Iraqi terrorists from attacking our state EVER. Which is a better record than the President achieved.
Sep 13, '06
From the web page: ...to name what Ted done Should read. ...to name what has Ted done
10:31 a.m.
Sep 13, '06
Why would a campaign make an ad buy in late August - when most voters aren't paying attention to politics? That's easy - desperation.
I don't know about that, Kari. I think it has more to do with making his name a familiar household item people are familiar with, and thus comfortable voting for. I've had a Kulongoski bumper sticker on my car for months and another in my front window, but the only other one I've seen is on my wife's car. (L'il help, Dems?) Meanwhile the building I work in has a huge Saxton banner on the side wall I drive by every morning.
If you've met the governor, then you know he's an energetic, ass-kicking firebrand. But for those who haven't met him or who don't follow the ins-and-outs of politics, they're apt to be wondering "Hmmm...who's this Saxton fellow I keep hearing so much about?"
The Kulongoski campaign needs to make sure their side of the conversation is getting heard.
Vote for Ted!
Sep 13, '06
Kari, quite a story on KGW about Ted's response and the "Saxton Stupid Stopwatch ad" on YouTube. Did you like the short interview soundbite of you?
11:59 p.m.
Sep 13, '06
Always hard to get interviewed extensively and then see your comments slashed to nothingness. Especially when they cut it to imply that you disagree with the other guy quoted... which I didn't.
Sep 14, '06