Hooley vs. Erickson: David Reinhard, delusional again.
Kari Chisholm
David Reinhard's latest prognostication is downright hilarious.
Yes, it takes some getting used to. Oregon has one of the nation's competitive congressional races, and it's a Democratic incumbent at risk. ... But Hooley has won five congressional elections there. What's different this time? Erickson's candidacy and -- relatedly -- Hooley's vulnerability."All the stars are lining up," Erickson says. "I'm hopeful we can win this." It's easy to dismiss this as the October happy-talk of another star-crossed GOP candidate in another Oregon congressional race. But Mike Erickson and the dynamics of this year's 5th Congressional District race just won't let you do that.
I haven't scoured the entire internet yet, but I'm pretty sure that there's not a single serious pundit who thinks Oregon-5 is a toss-up.
* On Friday, the National Journal released its latest ranking of the Top 50 seats most likely to change parties. Nope, Oregon-5 isn't on it.
* Congressional Quarterly's Election Forecast puts races on a seven-part scale - and Oregon-5 is at the blue-est end: Safe Democratic.
* The Cook Political Report has 79 races listed as "competitive" and Oregon-5 is among the ten most "Likely Democratic".
Even more hilarious: Reinhard on Erickson...
Erickson is, in short, a dynamo. He's articulate, abrim with energy and ideas, and as eager to make the case for himself as he is to point up how Hooley is "out of touch with our district." ... A new rising star in Oregon politics.
With all kinds of crazy rumors swirling around Mike Erickson, it's only time before the media substantiates one, two, three or more of them. And then, his campaign will come crashing to an end.
And David Reinhard will, once again, be exposed for the GOP mouthpiece that he is. At least he's a relatively loyal mouthpiece, because he's a lousy pundit.
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
10:29 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
I considered a post on that bizarre article, too, but I concluded that the more we pay attention to Reinhard, the longer he appears to matter. If the Oregonian seriously wants him as their conservative pundit--if they think their conservative readers are well-served by his, ah, commentary--I say carry on. But I no longer bother to read any but the most bizarre of his articles. It's just too predictable.
Oct 9, '06
Actually, I bet he wrote it because he learnt a new word (abrim) and really really wanted to use it.
But that's just my theory.
Although the word did liven up his typically banal writing. As someone once said of Tom Lehrer: "Seldom has any point to make but obvious ones."
11:06 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
Let's not jump to the conclusion that Hooley's is a safe seat. It would be if the media did its job and actually did real reporting. It may be time to call in the Washington Post so that the Oregonian will be reminded of their job. Anyone at the Oregonian remember Bob Packwood?
However we have to fight this campaign with the media we have not the media we would like to have. Given this reality, Hooley is suffering a big funding raising gap. Ericson is outspending Darlene by a large margin and it is a Republican district. She needs help with $ and feet on the street.
Oct 9, '06
John, as someone who has known Darlene since she was a legislator, I am offended by the comparison to Packwood.
If people really hate Darlene's voting record, they should find a serious candidate (one who has lived in the 5th District as a permanent resident for many years) for a primary challenge. Legislators have been the most successful Democrats in this district.
What people need to realize is that this is the woman who defeated Jim Bunn and who is representing a "purple" district. Her voting record may not please pure Democrats, but her constitutent work is second to none. Or at least that is the way it is seen here in this part of the 5th Dist.
Reinhard is delusional if he thinks a guy so stupid he has a website which takes about 5 minutes to load on a dial up connection -- and then when it does load has more flashy graphics than substance -- is a rising star.
Veterans are never mentioned on Erickson's website that I saw. Of course that wouldn't bother Reinhard.
And Erickson will "clean up Congress" as a member of the party of Hastert, DeLay, et al? Does he think tax cuts for the rich will pay down the deficit, or is he a pay as you go man?
Or doesn't this matter because it is all about R vs. D in an area with so many Indep. voters?
11:37 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
We had to go with Kari on this one--too ridiculous not to mention. My favorite part was relying on Moore Information polling, and the money dumps by EFF and NRCC, as evidence that things are going well for Erickson.
John, Erickson doesn't sit on that much more of a warchest than Hooley. She had almost 900K in the bank in July, so it's not like she's being plowed under by oppo money. Let's go ahead and jump to the conclusion that it's a safe seat, because there's not a single indication it isn't.
11:42 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
John wasn't comparing Hooley to Packwood. He was referring to the Oregonian's coverage of Packwood late in 1992 election, and the fact that it was the Post who broke the story about Packwood's activities shortly after that election.
Oct 9, '06
Check out the Sunday Stateman Journal endorsement of Hooley. The SJ views Erickson as so questionable that it urged voters who don't want to vote for Darlene to vote for one of the minor party voters. The editorial board stated that having Erickson in Congress wasn't worth the chance. Heck, it even implied that they urge voters to cast their ballot for the crazy Constitutional Party candidate instead of Erickson.
Now that takes some talent on Erickson's part.
Oct 9, '06
John, as someone who has known Darlene since she was a legislator, I am offended by the comparison to Packwood.
i think he was comparing erickson to packwood. there's so many ugly, ugly rumors about him out there. eventually the right reporter will actually interview some of the people who have been emailing them tips.
anon is right abou that editorial - the statesman journal knows but they're not reporting it yet.
11:53 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
We're working on some of those rumors at LO, trying to get some of the principals on the record, but anyone who wants to see some of the controversy that has followed Erickson since college, needs only to stop by PSU's library and peruse the back issues of the Vanguard from March and November 87, and September 88.
11:56 a.m.
Oct 9, '06
LT,
Yes, Wayne and Frank understood the meaning of my comment correctly. Perhaps I was too subtle. My problem is with Ericson, not Hooley.
Oct 9, '06
Thank you for clarifying, John.
I hear regularly from a Republican friend who is undecided about this and about Gov. I think that says a lot. There may be some unhappiness about Dem. campaigns, but if Republicans are having a problem with defection ("wanted Westlund but if the only choices are Saxton and Kulongoski, I'll vote for Kulongoski" from an old Republican friend) or apathy, that isn't a good sign for them.
Oct 9, '06
I guess I should have looked here before I put a very similar post to this one in my blog. I made a similar argument to your "I haven't scoured the entire internet yet, but I'm pretty sure that there's not a single serious pundit who thinks Oregon-5 is a toss-up." One obvious place to look that you didn't list (better than me I didn't list any, it was a rushed post) is Larry Sabato's chrystal ball, which, also does not list the OR-5th as competitive. This article was downright hillarious.
5:25 p.m.
Oct 9, '06
Just to be clear... I'm not opposed to the very concept of a conservative columnist at the Big O. Rather, I wish they had one with a fleeting acquaintance with reality, an ability to critically evaluate conservatives (and liberals), and do some research once in a while.
George Will, for example, is a great one. Sure, it's not fair to compare a guy who has been the national stage for multiple decades to a local yokel... but it wouldn't it be nice if the comparison was completely laughable?
Oct 9, '06
Samuel John Klein:
Are you British? That seems to be the only rational explanation for using the word "learnt" instead of "learned".
I'm also surprised to see the word "banal" used by any progressive given the etymology of the word (not to mention the difficult pronunciation).
I believe Rep. Hooley may have shat in her mess kit if she's drawing comparisons to Packwood in this venue.
Oct 9, '06
Why does the Oregonian continue to employ Reinhard? Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper to just print releases from the Republican party? You know, cut out the middleman.
10:44 p.m.
Oct 9, '06
Editing my comment above...
<h2>...but wouldn't it be nice if the comparison was NOT completely laughable?</h2>