Punditology 2006: which political nerd reigns supreme?
Kari Chisholm
Every two years, I run a little betting pool (no money) among my friends. This year, I'm opening it up to all of you -- my new group of friends, some known only through BlueOregon.
It's called the Punditology Challenge - and ya gotta pick the winners of a bunch of races around the state. Deadline is midnight Monday night, and folks who enter will find out early Tuesday what the conventional wisdom is. (Which is usually right, except when it's wrong - and then it's spectacularly wrong.)
Remember: you're trying to pick the winners, not simply pick who you wish would win. This won't affect the outcome of any campaigns, so there's no sense spinning it. Rather, if you pick 'em right - you'll be hailed as a genius, a pundit par excellence, a prognosticator for the ages...
You'll be up against some of the most connected lobbyists and well-informed professionals in the game -- so good luck.
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2:28 p.m.
Oct 31, '06
Ah predictions, my great forte ...
Oct 31, '06
I predicted Jeff would say that.
4:10 p.m.
Oct 31, '06
Big money! Big Money! No Whammy's annnnnddddd.... (hits button)
Nov 1, '06
This came across my wire. Bob Erikson predicts a 32 seat Dem pickup.
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/06/10/erikson.html.
Nov 3, '06
Love how BlueOregon keeps on attaching the (R) label to Ben Westlund, despite even his endorsement of the Governor.
10:30 a.m.
Nov 5, '06
All this focus on predictions reminds me of a scam more than a century old. A confidance man sends out 1024 letters, claiming that he has a "secret system" for predicting stock picks; in half, he predicts some stock will go up, half to which it will go down. After the day passes, he was right on one of his predictions, so for those 512, he makes another two predictions. And so on, and so on.
After nine iterations, he gets down to 4 marks for whom he has delivered 9 perfect stock picks. To those, he sells his "system" (something random he makes up) for a huge amount of money.
These predictive contests don't have the financial motive, but they're much the same. Make a hundred random predictions, and one of them is bound to be correct. But there's little intelligence behind them. Only luck.
Unless I happen to win. Then it's pure skill.
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