Riley Poll: Kulongoski Up 11
The details, courtesy of the Associated Press:
A new independent poll suggests that Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski has pulled ahead in the Oregon governor's race, leading Republican challenger Ron Saxton by a margin of 47 percent to 36 percent.The Riley Research Associates telephone poll of 445 likely voters found that Kulongoski has made significant gains among independent voters, the fastest-growing sector of the Oregon electorate.
Fifty-three percent of such independent voters said they planned to vote for Kulongoski, up from just 32 percent a month ago. Just 21 percent of independent voters said they were leaning toward Saxton.
The poll also shows that Democrats, some of whom had been publicly lukewarm about Kulongoski's candidacy during the primary, appear to be coming home, with 74 percent saying they'd vote for the incumbent, up from 67 percent in September.
But Saxton, the poll shows, has lost ground among his core voters, with 68 percent of Republicans saying they'd vote for him, down from 75 percent in September.
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9:22 p.m.
Oct 25, '06
Good news. Now lets campaign like he's eleven points down.
Oct 25, '06
There is a god! But Bear's right...we can celebrate on the night of November 7.
10:01 p.m.
Oct 25, '06
Holy crap!
Oct 25, '06
Bear, you said it! But after seeing the debates, I have no doubts that this poll accurately reflects what voters are thinking.
10:21 p.m.
Oct 25, '06
This is not the time to kick back. GOTV! Support Ted! I am so concerned aboout Rob Brading.....he just has to whip Karen Minnis's.....a.........
Oct 25, '06
Don't choke my chain...I'll play it out like it's a dead heat. Saxton is wrong for this state and Ted is right. Keep talking to anyone you hear about the real Saxton. I've got 3 votes for Ted now all from people that just didn't think he really did anything for people in Oregon. Everyone needs to talk to their coworkers and friends. Find out what they're thinking. Hold a ballot party...do anything.
Oct 26, '06
This poll affirms that although Saxton got The O's endorsement (well, sorta), Kulongoski has the voters' hearts. Let's work hard to get the voters' votes!
Oct 26, '06
On the primary election day, Mike Riley called the race for Mannix. Four weeks ago Riley's poll was the only poll showing Saxton with the lead. His polling has consistently been the least accurate.
Kulongoski may well have the lead, but the Riley poll, for some reason, is just not very good.
8:56 a.m.
Oct 26, '06
sasha's right--you can't trust Riley's numbers. On the other hand, you CAN assume that he used the same general methodology to get those numbers as last time. And so you can rely on internal logic to make a reasonably assessment of the race based on the trend.
In other words, I'm not sure Kulongoski is winning 47-36 any more than Saxton was winning 39-37 before--but what I do know from the second poll is that Ted has definitely made gains, and Saxton has slipped a little. And not only can Saxton not afford to slip, he can't even afford to stay at the same level as before, so this is a flat out disaster of a poll for Ron.
Can't wait to see what the next Rasmussen holds!
Oct 26, '06
“...Kulongoski has the voters' hearts.”
Now there’s a stretch!
I don’t doubt K will win re-election but it is not out of love from the voters due to a job well done. More like the usual “lesser of two evils” mentality, coupled with the power of the incumbency.
This election is a good argument for alternate party candidates and working to dissolve the lock Dems & Republicans have on the system.
Oct 26, '06
So the Lesson we have all learned...When Ted speakes even a two-bit chump like Saxton can make a race against Ted, but less voters see of Ted the higher his numbers climb.
So please someone, anyone, lock Ted in a closet (alone) until 8:00pm Nov 7th.
Thanks,
The people of Oregon!
11:36 a.m.
Oct 26, '06
er, what? Has Saxton been debating by himself all month?
Oct 26, '06
I'm shocked. I would have thought this race would be neck and neck.
If this poll is right, it means that Saxton's focus on the immigration issue is backfiring with independent voters. It also means K is finding success in his criticism of Saxton's tenure on the Portland School board.
As a registered independent, I've received about a dozen mailers from Saxton harping about immigration mostly. I have yet to receive a single Kulongoski flyer.
But I just voted yesterday so I should stop getting flyers any day now.
Oct 26, '06
Sasha is wrong on a number of points, our polling has been consistently accurate (visit RileyResearch.com to see past polls for yourself), and to correct another misstatement, we didn't even poll this year's primary. My Mannix comment wasn't poll-based, it was made with regard to the question of whether Atkinson supporters would capitulate and vote for the more radical righty (silly me).
What is noteworthy about the current poll is where Kulongoski's newfound support has come from. Although he has become slightly more popular among Ds (and Saxton slightly less among Rs), Saxton's numbers are virtually unchanged (39% a month ago vs. 37% now).
This means K's surge has come from non-partisan voters. His campaign has kicked into high gear and moved a lot of previously undecided voters to his side. But Oregonians are voting later each cycle, so the question now becomes - can Kulongoski keep them? It's a snapshot.
12:35 p.m.
Oct 26, '06
I think you have it 180 degrees backwards. The debates and ads on the air have increased Ted's visibility and shifted the numbers in his favor, the exact opposite of your thesis that the key to his re-election is him going into seclusion.
12:37 p.m.
Oct 26, '06
C'mon now Mike--is 2004 a memory you have hidden away from your brain?
Let's remind ourselves about the polling history for OR that year.
Do you happen to notice whose polls stick out? There are only 7 pro Bush polls from March to the end of October. Three of them are yours. From October on, when LV polls start to hold currency, yours is the ONLY ONE to claim a Bush lead--and the other polls conducted at roughly the same time all have Kerry outside the margin. Speaking of margins, Riley Research was among the least precise of all pollsters, particularly in October. Everybody else was able to get at least 500 LV; you got 400.
And of course, let's not forget the more salient point: snapshot or no, Bush didn't win by 5 points; Kerry won by 4.
Presidential races are the easiest to poll. And you still blew it.
12:40 p.m.
Oct 26, '06
This statement is based on?
I have been hearing reports that Multnomah County Democrats are turning in ballots in much larger numbers already than at this point in previous cycles, so this would seem to me to be contrary to your assertion about voters handing in ballots later and later with each cycle.
Not saying you are wrong, but would be interested to hear on what you are basing your statment on.
12:53 p.m.
Oct 26, '06
Can't say myself about Multno Dems vs previous years, but all voters in the county did tally up almost 11,000 ballots yesterday.
However, after three days of tabulating, the daily return is running behind 2002's first three days.
Whether that means they're turning them in later, I can't say, although the cumulative returns across the last few elections don't seem to indicate any real pattern.
Oct 26, '06
Thank you torridjoe for your vault-like memory, and God bless the Internet, where a 2004 mistake can and will live forever.
Regarding when people vote, I've heard anecdotally that some people vote early to get off the call/mail lists, but we're hearing directly from others that they need all the time they can get to absorb the information (ballot & tax measures, as well as candidates), and some have indicated that they plan to hold their ballot until the last minute out of fear that a) it could get misplaced, or b) that another "shoe will drop" after they send it in.
2:51 p.m.
Oct 26, '06
man, your cordial reply and admitted mistake sure took all the fun out of showing you up!
:)
(good show!)
Oct 26, '06
TED, TED, TED...has anyone else noticed that DeFazio may actually have a tightening race??? His opponent is using the Rove playbook, and the GOP wants him to WIN. He's got money and support and sleaze in abundance. Get a deFazio sticker on your bumper, right now!
2:08 a.m.
Oct 27, '06
Byard -- Don't be such a transparent GOP troll. Go back and tell your boss, Mr. Feldkamp, that you got one over on those lefty rubes at BlueOregon. And then leave us alone.
<h2>I've just made another Troll Defense Fund donation. Keep it up, and the money will keep on flowing!</h2>