Ted could still lose. Get to work.

Former Congressman Les AuCoin knows a thing or two about close elections. In 1992, he beat Harry Lonsdale by a few hundred votes in the Democratic primary election - only to barely lose to Bob Packwood (because the Oregonian didn't reveal what it knew about Packwood's behavior.)

Today, he's warning Oregonians that Ted Kulongoski's seemingly-healthy poll numbers yesterday may not predict victory.

My friends over at Blue Oregon are saying the KATU/Oregonian poll’s Kulongoski-Saxton spread (45-38%) is great news for Ted. I can’t agree. Any lead with just over three days to go is, of course, better than a deficit. But to understand the mood of the voters, you have to look deeper than the 45-38 snapshot. I think the poll points to a squeaker that could go either way. ...

[If] the poll is correct, slightly more voters oppose Ted than support him (45-46%). What about the uncommitted 9%? They’re shoppers. After almost all the arguments have been made—and despite knowing the incumbent well—something is keeping them away from the governor. In my experience, up to three-fourths of undecided voters break against the incumbent.

Which means Ted’s ceiling is probably 47.25%, and that makes me uncomfortable.

So, what do you do? You spend the weekend pulling out all the stops. Get to work, folks.

Read the rest.

Comments

  • (Show?)
    [If] the poll is correct, slightly more voters oppose Ted than support him (45-46%).

    Huh?

    Where does that come from? Not from that poll. 51% have favorable views of Ted and 62% are either favorable or neutral. So where does the more oppose Ted than support come from?

    I agree nothing is in the bag and GOTV is crucial in the closing few days, but I don't see what Mr. AuCoin is talking about with those numbers. Am I missing something?

  • (Show?)

    Aucoin added up all of the votes for the other candidates to get to the 46% in opposition. When you have five candidates running it is hard to get over 50% in a purple state like Oregon. Aucoin's attempt to motivate us is a little disengenuous in his polling analysis since the votes for the minority candidates is not going to drift toward Saxton. However, I agree with Les that getting out and capturing every possible vote will make a difference in a lot of the elections that will determine our future for both the legislature and on ballot measures. If we get those Democratic ballots in it will also help Ted. We could still lose if we are complacent because the Republicans in Oregon are still motivated, even if they aren't in other states.

  • J Jacobson (unverified)
    (Show?)

    The watch-phrase for voters and volunteers now is GOYA: Get Off Your Apathy. Fight the urge to become over-confident or complacent. Get out there and work.

    Please inform voters that neo-cons like Ron Saxton represent the wealthiest one to two percent. Saxton stands NOT for we the people!

    Saxton and his allied extremists running for the Legislature symbolize the same cronyism and corrupt, failed policies of the federal regime. Don't allow them to repeat those failed policies in Oregon.

    Big money interests backing Saxton are the same scandalous gang advocating disastrous Ballot Measures 41 and 48.

    Saxton marches lockstep with CheneyBushCo on the discredited invasion, war and occupation of Iraq. It's time to terminate the politics of fear at the national AND local levels.

    Your volunteer services and dollars are necessary now. Election volunteerism is a winning formula for progressive candidates across the state such as Ted Kulongoski.

    Remind voters that non-profit, public interest, environmental, labor and civil/human rights organizations are endorsing Progressive candidates!

    Remember that extreme factions are intent on suppression of voter turnout. Don't lapse into that negative stupor!

    Thanks for anything you can do to motivate, energize and Get Out The Vote. If we do our jobs, we'll prepare Oregon for a positive future!

    <h2>J Jacobson, Eugene</h2>
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