Former Congressman Les AuCoin knows a thing or two about close elections. In 1992, he beat Harry Lonsdale by a few hundred votes in the Democratic primary election - only to barely lose to Bob Packwood (because the Oregonian didn't reveal what it knew about Packwood's behavior.)
My friends over at Blue Oregon are saying the KATU/Oregonian poll’s Kulongoski-Saxton spread (45-38%) is great news for Ted. I can’t agree. Any lead with just over three days to go is, of course, better than a deficit. But to understand the mood of the voters, you have to look deeper than the 45-38 snapshot. I think the poll points to a squeaker that could go either way. ...
[If] the poll is correct, slightly more voters oppose Ted than support him (45-46%). What about the uncommitted 9%? They’re shoppers. After almost all the arguments have been made—and despite knowing the incumbent well—something is keeping them away from the governor. In my experience, up to three-fourths of undecided voters break against the incumbent.
Which means Ted’s ceiling is probably 47.25%, and that makes me uncomfortable.
So, what do you do? You spend the weekend pulling out all the stops. Get to work, folks.