Smith '08: Dan Gardner is out.

Yesterday, the Portland Tribune speculated that freshly re-elected Labor Commissioner Dan Gardner might make an excellent candidate to run against Senator Gordon Smith.

In the ninth comment on the ensuing BlueOregon discussion, Dan Gardner posted a comment that included this quote: "I have no intention of running for [the] US Senate at this time."

Here at BlueOregon HQ, we verified that it really was the Labor Commissioner - and he followed up with this comment:

If I were considering it, I would have been working on it for more than a year now. Let me make it clear: I have not been working on it. ... It is flattering to be mentioned. If I truly considered it, I would be in it to win it. But at this time, [it's] not my time, not my race.

By our count, it's:

Kitzhaber: Out.
Gardner: Out.
Everybody else: Still thinking about it.

Discuss.

  • TomCat (unverified)
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    How about running Kari Chisholm?

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    Don't forget-- Sources Say: Full of Shit.

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    TomCat, seriously. No more crazy talk like that.

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    I renew my call for the Honorable Secretary of State Bill Bradbury to stand against the Neo-Con running on the Republican ticket..

    The U.S. Senator that ran in '02 against Mr. Bradbury will not be the same U.S. Senator that runs in '08! His hollow rhetoric will be free campaign adds against him in '08!!! Smith is tied at the hip to corporate lobbyists and will have an impossible hill to climb justifying his record since the last election. I see no better way to hightlight, and take advantage of this weakness than to have the same man stand at the podium that was their when these lies began!!

    Flip-Flop, Flip-Flop that cost Oregonians blood and treasure, Flip-Flop, Flip-Flop that ran American prestige in the world in the ground, Flip-Flop, FLip-FLop that was the worst Congress and Senate in American history thanks to Republicans that most certainly include Gordon Smith!!!

    Bill Bradbury stands a head above the proposed candidates aside from DeFazio, and Blumenauer, and I don't think the state or the nation will be well served for them to surrender their valuable committee assignments, and seniority!

    Happy Thoughts;

    Dan Grady

  • Walker - Texas Ranger (unverified)
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    I still see a huge sake up about the happen...Blumenauer and Defazio both ran state-wide adds for the 2006 primary. That says they are running state wide for something in 2008.

    Let’s see, both have been in the house for long time, both are beloved in their home districts and both see that Oregon is shifting from a "Mountain West Blue State" to a "West Coast Blue State."

    An opportunity has shown itself and in 2008 I believe to very ambitious men are going to try to take that opportunity (Also this could be the most contentious democratic primary in Oregon's history with the Republic of Eugene facing off against the Republic of Portland...Good times).

    So if my theory is right then Oregon will have two vacant Congressional seats. The Forth congressional will be wide open, which will not be a lock for a democrat and it will take a very politically moderated democrat with great credentials on land use to win. (Candidates include: Susan Castillo, Kitty Piecey, Bill Dwyer, Vicki Walker, Lee Beyer and major Dark Horse: Former Roseburg Legislator....John Kitzhaber).

    And the Third Congressional will be open and it will be a bloodbath. But this is where Gardner comes in (not to mention every Democrat who has served in office higher then city dog catcher in the greater Portland-Metro area and Steve Novick).

    This should be fun to watch...but one scary thing is if this happens coupled with an open Treasure's and Sec of State seat in 2008, Oregon Dems could lose 70% of its up an coming Democrats to higher office and/or contentious primaries.

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    So if my theory is right then Oregon will have two vacant Congressional seats.

    I think both men would be fantastic candidates, but I can't possibly see them running against each other in a primary.

    As many have noted, it's a big risk -- giving up a sure House seat (sorry Feldkamp) for a US Senate race. Here's the flipside: even if the Democrat ends up losing closely to Gordon, he'd instantly became the favorite for the governor's race in 2010.

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    Posted by: Walker - Texas Ranger | Dec 21, 2006 9:39:26 AM

    Do you not think that a strongly endorsed candidate by the existing SOS Bill Bradbury would not have the sway to put another Democrat in the seat??

  • Walker - Texas Ranger (unverified)
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    Kari,

    I would like to agree with you that the two of them wouldn't square off against each other...but...Wyden isn't leaving anytime soon...this will be the last chance for both of them to make it to the U.S. Senate.

    Maybe they will both just play chicken and then one will back down at the last minute....but neither of these guys are known for blinking.

    I also don't believe losing an elections makes you a favorite next time (unless you're Gordan Smith)....the only thing losing an election makes you is a loser.

  • Walker - Texas Ranger (unverified)
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    Dear Mr. Grady,

    No.

    Sincerely,

    The 70% of Oregonians who don't know that Oregon even has a Secretary of State.

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    I strongly suspect that Peter DeFazio and Susan Castillo are both considering a bid for this seat. I wouldn't be surprised if Bluemenauer took a shot, but I'd be shocked if Bradbury went for it given his health problems.

  • Aaron (unverified)
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    I still think Blumenauer would make a much better gubernatorial than senate candidate. And DeFazio's "as independent as Oregon" catchphrase is tailor-made for a statewide senate race. We'd have heavyweights like Castillo or Bradbury who could run in OR-04. If DeFazio really doesn't want to do this, Westlund would be a good choice. I'd like to see some polling on this race.

  • Rural Voice (unverified)
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    If we want to have ANY chance against Gordon Smith, it can only happen with someone with huge state-wide name recognition (Kulongoski, Kitzhaber, and Wyden are about the only three who fit that bill) or a clear path to winning a county that Smith must win (like Clackamas or Marion counties).

    If Ted and John are out, we need to look for someone like Senators Kurt Schrader or Rick Metsger or House Majority Leader Dave Hunt.

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    Random thoughts: Blumenauer's seat is safely Dem, should he leave it to run for the Senate, but the same can't be said for DeFazio's. But wouldn't DeFazio be a better statewide candidate?

    I don't think Bradbury is a viable candidate, given the enmity he has among the right--I think his candidacy would only galvanize supporters of Smith and potentially sway swing voters. (He has the unearned rep for a partisan.) Also his health is an issue.

    Finally, if Westlund was looking forward to '08 when he decided to switch to the Dems, he may have been playing a pretty good hand. It's not a sure bet--call it an inside straight--but if the cards start falling right for him with primary candidates, he might find himself in a good position.

    If, however, Blumenaeur or DeFazio run, he might have a hard time getting through the primaries.

    Would Pete Sorenson throw his hat in the ring after '06?

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    Health Issue??? What are we talking about her, I had no idea that Bill Bradbury was ill??

    Also, how did Bradbury get branded a partisan, and why??

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    The 70% of Oregonians who don't know that Oregon even has a Secretary of State.// Posted by: Walker - Texas Ranger | Dec 21, 2006 10:30:41 AM

    Every business, every ballot, every security, every license process dealing with money touches the SOS and you think 70% of the Oregonians don't know we have a SOS???

    You have a very low opinion of Oregonian! As a newer resident I have observed a much greater awareness than that, and I think Bradbury is seen as anything but partisan as well as elections go off around the state!

  • peter (unverified)
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    bradbury has multiple sclerosis.

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    bradbury has multiple sclerosis.// Posted by: peter | Dec 21, 2006 1:32:05 PM

    This is a condition people live with for many years, so I'm wondering if he knew about it before his 2002 bid for the US Senate, as well I don't see him slowing down as the SOS!!

    A debilitating medical condition doesn't mean they are unable to serve in a political office!! There are many examples of a vast range of medical conditions that has little to do with the service of many Representatives, and Senators!!!

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    Yo, Westlund! In or out? Get on this trail!

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    Yo, Westlund! In or out? Get on this trail!

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    I'm with Dan on this. While it's well-known that Bill has MS, and he's less mobile than he used to be... I've seen him many times in recent months, and he's in great spirits and still sharp as a tack. He shows up to more political events than any other elected official I know. He'd be just fine on the campaign trail.

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    If anyone's going to beat Gordon Smith we need to beat the living hell out of him NOW. For instance, how many of us are writing letters to the editor to the Oregonian pointing out that their "More troops? Are you crazy?" editorial today failed to mention that Smith has said that he's for EITHER "more troops" OR "fewer troops," he seemingly doesn't care which? I agree with Kari on Bradbury - he's fine. Westlund worries me against Smith for the same reason every Presidential Democrat other than Gore and Obama worry me -- I'd rather have a contrast to Smith who can say "I was against the war from Day 1." If it's Ben, much as I love him, Smith can say: "You can change your mind on everything, why can't I?" Ben was still with George W in '04.

  • Aaron (unverified)
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    I agree with Steve 100%, we need to campaign against him starting now--but not only too say:"Well he was doing what the other R's where doing, or He is a yes-man for Bushco, or He is just a neo-con R." Get the facts on why each of the votes hurts Oregon and USA at the same time. Make him defend himself on this and we can have a good shot of taking him out. If we wait or just do the typical anti-Bush statements--we will be crushed.

    The SOS would be the best possible candidate to run against Smith, since he did it before-great statewide name-and he has worked on the other side of the aisle of him.

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    I personally believe that for a Bradbury or anyone we are mentioning to run against Smith the support of the national net-roots that we saw with Lamont or in Montana or in VA this year would have to happen.

    The DSCC is not engaged in this race right now. We will have to make them engaged with early $$$ and support of whoever runs.

  • peter (unverified)
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    hey, i was just answering the question about what bradbury's health issue was. i think he'd be a wonderful candidate.

    and steve's hit the nail on the head about gordo's potential oppenent. nothing is going to change with respect to iraq at all until january 21, 2009 at 12:01, the second a new president is in power.

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    Whoever runs, they'd better have a better campaign pitch than "Gordon Smith votes his conscience instead of what the polls tell him." That was Bradbury's brilliant strategy last time.

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    Peter -- That's January 20 at 12:01 p.m. Don't go giving Bush another 24 hours to screw things up. :)

  • TomCat (unverified)
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    Kari, my apologies for not realizing you have too much integrity to consider a political career. ;-)

    Whoever opposes Smith may have a unique opportunity. I'm convinced that Bush's new way forward will closely follow the plan put forward by his neocons: escalation, more death, and bigger failure. The Democratic Presidential candidate in the aftermath of that will likely have long coat tails.

  • Mike (unverified)
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    If I posted twice, apologies.

    I'll take anyone-but-Smith. Would someone who has a chance kindly run against him in '08?

    I'm all in and I think there are a lot of people who want Smith out.

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    When I mentioned Bradbury's health, it wasn't to suggest this should somehow eliminate anyone's support for him. I just wonder whether he'll want to run for an office where the first term won't end until eight years from now. If he decides to give it a go, I will of course trust his judgment on that. I think the bigger problem there is that as Secretary of State, Bradbury was constantly targeted by righties as a partisan who tried to rig things for the Dems--both in redistricting and in the way the Secretary of State's office managed petitions. (See here for the kinds of things I'm talking about.) I don't blame Bradbury for this--it seems to be part of the job of being Secretary of State.

    In any case, I hope a front-runner emerges relatively quickly and crafts a positive campaign with a coherent message for change. I think that's how to beat Smith.

  • Scott (unverified)
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    I think Smith can be defeated by the right candidate.

  • Baker Everud (unverified)
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    Bradbury's illenss is something to consider. Every case of MS is different, but most who have it encounter enormous fatigue issues. I wonder if he would have stamina for a concerted campaign effort, or for the stresses of serving in Washington.

    Some MS sufferers also have cognitive difficulties, but Bradbury is enough of a mensch that I think he would be honest about that if it becomes an issue.

    DeFazio is too left for statewide consumption. Blumenauer is a more astute politician, astute enough to determine whether he can knock off Smith.

  • DAN GRADY (unverified)
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    I find the postings regards to "whether" Gordon Smith is beatable or not puzzling!

    I find the record of this Senator of little backbone as mostly a punch board version of a Senator that has shown himself to be without a genuine version of him. A follower, certainly not a leader!! The speech against the war timed liked a teenager's last attempt to avoid grounding! This kind of leadership in a Senate seat insures a partisan rubber stamp with no spine when a party, or president, or colleague needs to be stood up to for things like WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The man has spoken out of both sides of his face for the 12 years he served, and I dare say a strong campaign pointing this out would be impossible to overcome!!

    No matter his previous support in rural counties, this Senator is more than just vulnerable, and his record is packed full of castasropic failure!! The man sez he’s a conservative that has overseen the worse budgetary Senate in history, insane foreign military adventures, environmental decimation, and the most prolific attack against our civil liberties in American History , and stood silent, always silent!?!

    If we can’t field a winner against this guy, war chest overflowing or not, we don’t deserve to lead!! Affability should have been worn out long ago on the most devoted Republican, and if your likeable or not should not be a hurdle with a simple contrasting of how “likeable” they kept saying Bush was!!!! The two have been tied to the hip until Gordon found the waters to deep and noticed his mentor drowning in his own rhetoric.

    This other Senator has been a dismal example of Oregon leadership, and Oregonian values that I have observed, and I don’t think it should be to difficult to make a case that which party you belong to should have nothing to do with whether he should be sent back to Washington!!

    Happy Thoughts;

    Dan Grady

  • Aaron (unverified)
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    "DeFazio is too left for statewide consumption. Blumenauer is a more astute politician, astute enough to determine whether he can knock off Smith."

    DeFazio is no further left than Blumenauer. In fact, he's probably more conservative on social, environmental, and immigration issues. And he's shown that his brand of economic populism can win over rural swing voters.

    Again, the only way we beat Smith is by weakening his argument that he provides regional and ideological balance to our Senate delegation.

  • Grant Schott (unverified)
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    HOw about Barbara Roberts? She is one of the best campaigners in the state, is well known, and could have EMILYS List support?

  • LT (unverified)
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    Let's ask the folks in the 2nd, 4th and 5th Cong. Districts how well they think she would do. Or for that matter, would all residents of Washington and Clackamas County be receptive?

    <h2>Not to mention whether she would want to re-enter elective politics. This is serious business, and how do we know that someone who has left elective politics would fit 2008 and would want to do it?</h2>
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