Smith '08: David Wu is out (again), Bill Bradbury also out
The AP and the Oregonian report what was first reported by OPB back on January 31 (and noted here at BlueOregon)...
David Wu won't run for the US Senate in 2008.
Wu has two young children and leads a subcommittee as part of the new Democratic majority in the Congress, spokeswoman Jillian Schoene said."It's just not right for him right now," she said.
According to The Hill newspaper, Secretary of State Bill Bradbury has also ruled out a run.
Discuss.
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May 19, 2007 |
in the news 2007 | Comments (27 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: Phil Johnson | May 19, 2007 7:04:01 PM
I am left to draw one conclusion. With all the polling that these guys all do I have to believe that the ability to move Gordo's numbers is limited.
With DSCC only releasing the head to head and not showing how various liabilities move Smith downward it has to mean that the attacks (for the war before he was against it, assisted suicide, and choice) just don't make people vote for our guys.
Who is left that can turn this race down? By my count the following are out:
Wu
Blumenauer
DeFazio
Hooley
Kulongoski
Kitzhaber
Westlund
Brown (Kate)
Walker (Vicki)
Castillo
Potter
Aucoin
Bradbury
Am I missing any others?
In fact, I think Novick and Bates are the only two names mentioned that have not turned the race down at this point.
Posted by: Bradley Dunn | May 19, 2007 11:30:13 PM
I would just like to let everyone know that I am also out of the 2008 Senate race.
Posted by: Matthew Sutton | May 20, 2007 7:49:09 AM
The one guy that has decided to run, attorney Steve Novick, is extremely intriguing, and a fighter if ever there was one. Other than lacking national experience, what is the knock on this guy? I think that he is someone that people could really rally behind.
Posted by: The Amazing Karnack | May 20, 2007 9:45:37 AM
State Senator Alan Bates, should he make it official, will defeat Gordon Smith in '08.
Posted by: Beaverton Voter | May 20, 2007 12:29:39 PM
BlueNote, if one of these guys should ever come knocking at my door asking for support, I will remember that they put practicality and the preservation of a slim Democratic majority ahead of an ego-driven and suicidal run against Smith that wouldn't help anything except their own name recognition.
I voted for Wu to do a particular job in DC - not because I expected him to jump off whatever cliff seemed particularly heroic.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 20, 2007 5:01:32 PM
Phil Johnson, I don't believe that Ted Kulongoski, Kate Brown, and Vicki Walker have publicly removed themselves from consideration. I could be wrong, and plenty of people have said to me that they're not in (and I certainly can't imagine the Governor getting in), but I haven't seen a public statement from those three.
In fact, I think Novick and Bates are the only two names mentioned that have not turned the race down at this point.
Here's my big list of everyone that's been "mentioned" somewhere out there:
In:
Steve Novick
Considering:
State Senator Alan Bates
Out:
Fmr. Congressman Les AuCoin
Secretary of State Bill Bradbury
Congressman Earl Blumenauer
Supt. of Public Instruction Susan Castillo
Congressman Peter DeFazio
Labor Commissioner Dan Gardner
Congressman Darlene Hooley
Fmr. Governor John Kitzhaber
John Kroger
City Commissioner Randy Leonard
Mayor Tom Potter
Congressman David Wu
Unknown:
State Senator Brad Avakian
State Senator Kate Brown
Representative Peter Buckley
State Senator Margaret Carter
State Senator Peter Courtney
State Treasurer Randall Edwards
Paul Evans, 2006 State Senate candidate
House Majority Leader Dave Hunt
Neal Keny-Guyer, Mercy Corps
Governor Ted Kulongoski
Representative Greg Macpherson
Clatsop County DA Josh Marquis
Jack McGowan, SOLV
Tony McPeak, ret. USAF General
House Speaker Jeff Merkley
Attorney General Hardy Myers
Fmr. State Senator Charlie Ringo
Fmr. Governor Barbara Roberts
House Speaker Pro Tem Diane Rosenbaum
Jefferson Smith, Bus Project
State Senator Vicki Walker
State Senator Ben Westlund
Posted by: Yamhill county Mitch | May 20, 2007 6:11:12 PM
Governor Ted Kulongoski would get CRUSHED if he ran against Gordon Smith, his poll numbers right now are abysmal to say the least, his numbers are of the ranks of George Bushes. He could not raise the money nor could he convince the Oregon voter that he is a good leader, everyone knows he is not a leader he is a puppet to special interest, the people that voted for him know this and seem to be OK with it, he would not have a chance against Gordon Smith though, not a chance.
Posted by: Neal Patel | May 20, 2007 6:18:39 PM
Defeating Smith is difficult but doable.
He is no Santorum- right wing extremest
He is not going to face a tough primary challenge like Chaffee. He is not senile and corrupt like Conrad Burns. He does not have the Macaca Moments like George Allen.
Smith's is in the same category as DeWine- a maverick conservative. Ensign- friendly relationship with his homestate collegue from the other party(Ensign/Reid or Smith/Wyden).and Talent- could lose due to candidate recruitment of national trend.
Kitzhaber is the 800lb gorrilla. He is a former popular statewide elected official with close to universal name id. and at least 2/3 personal favorable ratings. He starts out with a double digit lead over Smith. Kitzhaber could have ran in 2002 when he was about to leave office and Smith was a freshman who narrowly got elected in 1996 against a political novice. I am not surprised that Kitzhaber took a pass.
DeFazio is a stronger general election candidate than Wu,Bluemanauer,and Hooley. DeFazio comes from Eugene-central part of Oregon. He represents a swing district. DeFazio could have ran in 1996 when it was an open seat(Hatfield). I am not surprised that DeFazio took a pass.
Between Wu and Bluemenaur-both Portlanders- Bluemanauer is more Senatorial than Wu. Bluemenaur is less controversial. Bluemenaur will be labeled as a Portland liberal.
Bradbury and Randall Edwards are more interested in running for Governor.
Bates is a credible challenger against Smith than Novick. Bates is a member of the Oregon State Senate Leadership position. His State Senate District is outside of the Portland Metro Area. He is a Vietnam Veteran and a Doctor.
Posted by: Phil Johnson | May 20, 2007 7:00:37 PM
Kari,
I looked back at the Willamette Week article and you are right. Kate Brown said she would not run for Earl's seat if he ran for Senate.
Since Kulongoski says he will not campaign AGAINST Smith. I have taken that to mean he will not RUN AGAINST Smith either.
I will look back and find a link on Walker being out. I know I read that somewhere.
Posted by: Scott Jorgensen | May 20, 2007 8:55:13 PM
I interviewed Sen. Bates last week about the revenue forecast. Once we were done with that conversation, I asked him about the likelihood of him taking on Sen. Smith.
Sen. Bates said he still needed to talk with his family, but did not seem opposed to the idea at all. I strongly urged him to run, and pledged my complete and total support for his candidacy.
In terms of his statewide electability, I think Sen. Bates could do rather well. He has quite a bit in common with another former rural doctor--that Kitzhaber fella--who keeps being mentioned as a candidate (except unlike our former governor, he isn't responding 'HELL NO' when asked if he'd consider running).
Sen. Bates is also a Vietnam veteran, which gives him credibility on the war issue.
There's no doubt that Steve Novick would do well in Portland. But I think it would be easier to convince rural folks to vote for Bates than Novick, as rural folks already vote for Bates. Besides, Bates would get the Portland vote anyway, because he has a "D" by his name.
Run, Alan, Run!
Posted by: torridjoe | May 20, 2007 8:56:17 PM
Ted's poll numbers are abysmal? By who's polling??
Survey USA tells a different story...his disapproval numbers are at a two-year LOW. If you recall, Bush is about 30% approval. How Ted's 51% is "of the rank" of Bush's, I have no idea.
Yeah, he couldn't convince Oregon that he's a good leader...except for the 53% of voters he convinced last year. They must have all moved.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 21, 2007 12:58:28 AM
TJ is exactly right, Yamhill Mitch. Ted's approval/disapproval is basically on par with Gordon Smith's -- and much better than Dubya's. You seem to have forgotten that we had an election last fall, in which Oregonians got to take another close look at Governor Kulongoski, and they decided that they liked what they saw.
Kulongoski: 51/43
Smith: 51/41
Bush: 29/70
Ron Wyden, btw, is at 59/31.
Of course, Ted's numbers are highly partisan - 64/33 among Dems; and 28/66 among GOPers. He's strong with indies too, 60/34.
By contrast, Smith is OK with his base - 64/31 - and pulling a split with Dems, 47/46, and indies, 44/44.
Some might see that as problematic. I don't. I see it as an opportunity. Bring the Democratic base home, and he's beat.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 21, 2007 1:00:55 AM
Neal Patel wrote: Bradbury and Randall Edwards are more interested in running for Governor.
Got a source for those assertions, Neal?
Posted by: Bill R. | May 21, 2007 8:51:08 AM
Steve Novick got some good press today in the Statesman-Journal. This has the beginnings of a winning upset narrative for him.
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070521/STATE/705210316
Posted by: Dan Grady | May 21, 2007 9:03:15 AM
SAVE DEMOCRACY, VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT!!
"Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D) will not run again after losing to Smith 56-40 in 2002, spokeswoman Mary Conley said."// THE HILL
I am to say the least disheartened by this news; I would like to hear this from Mr. Bradbury. I don't imply that the citizens of Oregon deserve an explanation because the process, and commitment needed is more than anyone can be expected to accept unless they should be completely committed.
If the reason was because of the butt-kicking he took in 2002, I would submit that this is the best reason for him to jump into the race! A vote in 2002 for Gordon Smith comes from a remorseful Republican & Independent that wants their opportunity for redemption. I believe that aspect of a Bill Bradbury candidacy would account for the gap of 16 points in the 2008 election and then some!
I like the sentiment of a Steve Novick; I like his slant on issues as a pundit, or writer! I have issues with his credentials in an election facing an incumbent Senator with a horrendous war chest! I believe a vigorous, impassioned Democratic endorsement of a Bradbury would give the Democrats an opportunity to use the 2002 election for fund raising that would tap into the complete spectrum of donations, from both side of the isle. I don't see the candidates bringing these sort of advantages to the table.
He could have the support of the DSCC to polish his delivery in T.V. appearances, and have the kind of PR professionals he did not in the 2002 election.
I would enjoy hearing Bill Bradbury's explanation for his reluctance to run, not that he owes anyone.
I have for a nauseating number of occasions expressed my support for his candidacy and do so not for reasons specific to the man Bill Bradbury, but for the opportunity his candidacy will bring to the race, a winner!
Happy Thoughts;
Dan Grady
Posted by: LiberalIncarnate | May 21, 2007 9:43:41 AM
Wu's Klingon speech on the House Floor pretty much does him in, among other things. I love Star Trek, but I am firm believer in the separation between Trek and State. Wu crossed that line.
I believe that those who worship the Trek should do so in the privacy of their own homes or at a convention suitably dressed up.
Posted by: Neal Patel | May 21, 2007 10:46:03 AM
Kulongoski is term limited he will be leaving office in 2010.
Bradbury and Edwards both statewide elected officials. took a pass at challenging Smith.
Posted by: lestatdelc | May 21, 2007 12:01:00 PM
Kari,
you forgot Ty Petit is also officially in and was even before Novick announced.
Posted by: Grant Schott | May 21, 2007 12:27:44 PM
Two names not on Kari's list are Beverly Stein and Jim Hill. Although both did poorly against Ted K. in the 2002 gov. primary, they were both hard working candidates who raised a lot of money. Jim probably didn't help himself by challenging Ted last year, but a lot of Dems did want an alternative at the time.
I am also going to throw out (again) the name of Jim Rassmann from Florence, the Vietnam vet who John Kerry pulled into his swift boat in 1969 and who helped Kerry win Iowa. I don't know if Rassmann would want to run, but I think he could be a good candidate.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 21, 2007 4:26:28 PM
you forgot Ty Petit is also officially in and was even before Novick announced.
Yeah, and so is Pavel Goberman - but just filing paperwork and launching a website doesn't make you a real candidate.
Certainly, a real candidate would have updated their website more recently than October 2004. Ty Pettit is still trying to get people to vote for John Kerry for President.
Posted by: Susan B. | May 22, 2007 5:47:40 PM
I gotta say that Evans and Bates would both be really strong candidates. Both veterans, so they can nail Smith on the Iraq war issue in a way Novick never will be able to. Though I would really hate to see Bates drop the good work he's doing in the State legislature right now. Personally I think you need to attack Smith on the war issue, and only a veteran is going to be able to do that job properly. Out of the people speculated to run that leaves, I really see Evans as the best. Once you meet him you immediately know why too. He's got strong convictions, isn't afraid to go on the attack, and can appeal statewide. And from what I've heard he can pull in lots of national money which will really make a difference.
Posted by: Adrian R | May 22, 2007 5:58:45 PM
I dunno, Pavel Goberman's website looks pretty spiffy. Simple, defined platforms. And the photo section? Awesome.
Posted by: Pavel Goberman | May 23, 2007 10:36:11 PM
Republicans, Democrats and etc. What is the difference? Same garbage! In the Constitution of the USA is written: "We the People....". The blood of our soldiers in Iraq is on Republican, Democratic Parties and on the media. They did everything to block my election. They are enemies of us, the People. They are creating bribery, corruption and political prostitution.
I have a plan to bring our troopers from Iraq not in a few years, but in 2-4 months. And bring them home with the victory and with minimum loss of our soldiers, but President Bush and Secreatry of Defense Gates do not listem to me. And people are dying.
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator
www.getenergized.com/vote.html
Posted by: James Thivierge | May 24, 2007 1:10:47 PM
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator is
A far left extremist, narcissistic who lacks logic and reason to be a Senator of this Great State of Oregon or these United States of America!
He is historically ignorant, spiritually dead and a Leninist at heart! Just what we need the Government controlling every aspect of our lives! Can’t we do things on our own without the Government telling us how to do it, when to do it and taking my money to support this Leninist Government?
He thinks with his heart not his brain!!
Posted by: Pavel Goberman | May 25, 2007 12:02:24 PM
James Thivierge said that I'm Leninist. What I could say about this shit? I was a small part that destroyed the Communist Party and the KGB. I was going to die for my idea.
And now this an idiot with a brain of a very small bird is talking and does now what he is talking about. These kind of people, brainwashed by the Republican and Democratic Parties and the media, elected and reelected "experienced" morons in government and because of it our sons and daughters are dying
in Iraq. Ignore this garbage!
"For the wages of sin is death" (saying)
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator
www.getenergized.com/vote.html
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Posted by: BlueNote | May 19, 2007 6:45:12 PM
It is interesting to hear that all of the Oregon Dems in the US House of Representatives love their House jobs too much to ever consider becoming a member of the US Senate. I hope that they (and we) remember this in the future - just in case there is an election for an open US Senate seat or an appointment by the Governor or whatever.
Being somewhat cynical, I tend to believe that every one of the current Oregon Dems in the US House would trade their first born child and/or spouse and/or significant other to be elevated to the US Senate, but each and every one of them is too afraid of giving up their safe Dem seat to run against Gordo, because they don't think he can be beaten. They may or may not be correct but whatever happens I hope that these chicken-hearted Dems won't be knocking on our doors in 2 or 4 or 6 years asking for support to run for the US Senate. Oregon needs them NOW but each and every one of them has refused the call, and they don't deserve our support in a future US Senate campaign.
My rant for the day. Bring me my medication.