Would Hillary Clinton lose Oregon?
After all, Oregon was the 10th closest state in 2004 - with John Kerry defeating George W. Bush by a vote of 51% to 47%, or just 76,000 votes. In 2000, with the addition of Ralph Nader, Al Gore defeated George Bush by only 7000 votes.
Over at DailyKos, a blogger named "pdxattorney" takes note of a recent Rasmussen poll. Quoting Rasmussen:
If New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in Election 2008, it may take some work to keep Oregon in the Democratic column--51% of the state’s voters currently have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner.
In general election Match-ups with top Republican candidates, the Oregon landscape looks very competitive. Clinton currently trails Arizona Senator John McCain by three percentage points. The former First Lady holds a statistically insignificant single point edge over both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thomson while leading Mitt Romney by five.
And the conclusion by "pdxattorney"?
Oregon is an interesting state demogaphically in that the democrats tend to be pretty far to the left while the republicans tend to be almost libertarian. Centrist democrats don't win. Just as fiscal or traditional religious-type republicans don't make much headway either. To win in Oregon, a democrat really must energize the base, keep the Nader types in the fold. That's not Hillary.
Hillary's unpopularity in Oregon is also a particular problem this cycle given the possible detrimental impact she could have in our effort to unseat longtime republican senator Gordon Smith. His numbers have been declining and this could be a real democratic pickup opportunity in the senate assuming that lack of enthusiasm for Hillary doesn't hurt the downticket democratic candidates.
Read the rest at DailyKos. Discuss.