Reading the Tea Leaves One Year Out

Jeff Alworth

We are a year from the election, give or take.  Let us pause for a moment to consider what we know as we head into the rapids of the Presidential primary and the subsequent long ride toward November.  I have been studying some of the polling data (what did armchair hacks do before the internet?!), and there are some interesting nuances you may not be hearing about in the mainstream press.  In short, the Democrats are still more popular than reported, represent the majority position on issues voters care about, and have fielded more-popular candidates.

General Attitudes
Tell me if you've heard this meme from the mainstream press: although Americans disapprove of Bush, they disapprove of Democrats in even greater numbers.  This view is parroted in today's US News and World Report:

That's a sobering critique, but given the dismal approval ratings of President Bush and Congress, these results aren't too surprising. "A lot of leaders are really impotent in changing the direction of things," says Brown University Prof. Arnold Ludwig, author of a book on political leadership. He points specifically to Congress. "People are frustrated as to why the Democrats can't stop the war, why they can't curb the president. Leaders are supposed to get things done."

It is true that according to one gross measure--Congressional approval--things look for Democrats.  But dig a little deeper, and it turns out that the blame is not equally placed on both parties.  Last week Pew released findings of a survey of 2,000 adults suggesting that Americans cut the Dems a lot more slack than the MSM realizes.   In four surveys since the Dems took over after the 2006 midterms, Pew has asked the question "Are you happy or unhappy the Democratic Party won control of Congress in last year's election?"  By a 35-point margin, respondents said they were happy Dems control Congress (54% to 29%).

In another important dimension, voters express faith in the Democrats.  When asked to compare Democrats and Republicans across a variety of measures--competence, empathy, ethics, ability to deliver change--the Dems maintained the same advantages (ranging between 12 and 30 percentage points) they've held since October 2006.  This is further evidence that voters are able to distinguish between current performance and overall capacity.

There are two things driving low Congressional approval.  One is party affiliation--by overwhelming numbers, Republicans disapprove of Democrats (76%).  But Democrats find disapproval from their own party and from independents on the Iraq issue, driving their numbers lower.  Two-thirds of Democratic voters and 48% of independents say Democrats are not challenging Bush enough on Iraq.  So the aggregate disapproval for Dems consists of two very different constituencies, and is a poor predictor of how Americans will vote in '08.  All in all, things aren't that bad for Democrats after all.

Major Issues
In nearly every major poll that asks about issues, three issues dominate voters' attention: Iraq, health care, and the economy.  The war on terror continues to lose ground in polling and is currently a second-tier issue, polling in the high single-digits along with immigration, education, and the environment.  When the question is asked open-ended (that is, pollsters don't provide a menu of issues to choose from), Iraq becomes even more pronounced--cited by an average of 30% of the people in three recent national polls as the issue they'll be voting on. 

In all three, Iraq, the economy, and health care, voters trust Democrats by substantial margins to fix the problem.  In similarly-worded questions, Democrats are favored by at least 15% in every poll to address the situation in Iraq.  On issues ranging from taxes to the budget deficit to general "economy" questions, Dems are favored by 15% to 40% in every poll.  In no poll and on no issue related to the economy do Republicans match the Democrats in voters' eyes.  On health care policy, it's not even close--Americans overwhelmingly support Democrats, by margins of 30% and up.  (These numbers came from the indispensable Polling Report.)

The only issues where Republicans hold a recognizable (but declining) advantage is on terrorism and immigration.  But even here, the issues are complex enough that Americans are divided on solutions.  It's not clear how the GOP could engineer these issues into a winning strategy in 2008.  And finally, formerly powerful GOP issues--gay marriage, abortion, stem cell research and other social issues--barely register on the polls.  These were key reasons the GOP mustered wins in '02 and '04, but even conservative voters no longer identify them as most important.

Presidential Race
Despite much concern about the electability of Hillary Clinton, there appears to be no combination of candidates in which the Democrats do not beat the Republicans in 2008.  Recent polling follows a similar trend of the past few months; in contests between any combination of the three front-runners from the Democratic and Republican Party, the Democrat wins head-to-head matchups in all but one--Rudy versus Hillary.  In that latter matchup, most of the polls put the candidates within the margin of error, though Clinton has a slight lead in the aggregate trend.  Interestingly, Obama runs strongest of all Democrats, crushing Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, and holding a consistent lead over Giuliani.  John Edwards performs nearly as well as Obama.

The MSM seems determined to make the Democratic advantage in 2007 look weak or nonexistent.  Whether this storyline emerges as a result of lazy poll-reading or an effort to stir up interest isn't clear.  But when I look at the numbers and the way they're trending, I can't see how you can conclude anything but that we're on the verge of a major political shift.  (Because this post is already overlong, I didn't go into the Congressional numbers, but they look strong for Dems, too.)

Caveat
Bloggers, for want of material, spend a disproportionate amount of time reading polls and mouthing off about what they mean--as have I, for nearly five years.  Let me share some wisdom: take what you think you know with a grain of salt.  Or take what I know with a grain of salt, anyway.  In November 2003, Dems were dancing with delight over Howard Dean.  Bush's approval was below 50% and Iraq war seemed destined to doom him.  In 2005, Republicans were touting their victory a year earlier as the start of a "permanent majority."  Within a few months, the unspeakable was readily being discussed: not only were the Dems a sure bet to seize the House, they might even take the Senate. 

In other words, things change quickly.  Signs look very good for the Democrats right now, but they may well look different in nine months.  You can count on me to be obsessively following along.

  • (Show?)

    Very interesting analysis, Jeff. Both the head-to-head numbers and the Congressional numbers were particularly interesting to me.

    Another thing to keep in mind when parsing the low Congressional approval numbers is that they've been pretty low for a number of years, certainly predating the Dem takeover by a substantial length of time. Even without digging into the stats as you've done, just looking at the overall numbers it's pretty hard to look at the last several years of approval ratings and get out of it a specific disapproval of just Democrats. In fact I think it would be fair to say that there's a certain degree of disapproval directed towards Congress as an institution based upon a wide variety of factors, not the least of which would be numerous scandals over the last couple decades.

  • mullah cimoc (unverified)
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    mullah cimoc say two thing:

    Giuliani him make big ashame for all ameriki.

    first thing, him take him slut to live in government house while still the marry? Am this "conservative value" ameriki?

    him business partner kerrick Giuliani almost make the homeland security czar of usa but now the investigate and hearing of the whores and the rich man condo on policeman salary. Am him the clean police? Conservative values ameriki?

    him to serving the homosexual and disobey him bible, but still acting the proud. him to wanting man to marry man, man to marry donkey, and woman to marry the woman. so sick and show the destroy of ameriki society.

    him Giuliani to obey every command of masters in tel aviv. him like puppet on fish line. am this make the geo. washington and benjamin frankling proud?

    now the republican of ameriki having so many the gay homosexual like the kink sex act, corruption and cruel---now just opposite---not the family value, this the filthy corruption and amerika to be suffer maybe the earthquaking so terrible?

    second point: How possible for usa media not tell ameriki people him giuliani father "Harold Giuliani" mafia loan shark enforcer serve him time at sing sing prison. usa media not the free. so control.

    for him true info: [email protected] for him aemriki learn.

  • winz (unverified)
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    I haven't taken the specific poll you mentioned, but I can say this: On the polls I have taken you can't really say you don't trust either party. Thats where many of us are at. Bush just doesn't matter much anymore and will matter less as the months go on. One could say he is not relevant anymore.

    There is no easy answer in Iraq, it is going to have to go by feel and change as the need arises. Bush didn't handle it well, but then at the time he was backed by most of Congress in both parties, and the majority of the people. I never thought it was the right "war", but then I thought we should use opportunites to avoid Afghanastan. Iran may become more of an issue, but it seems most people are ok to use military there now.

    Not necessarily the terrorism, but secure borders could become an issue. Most people don't seem to quite understand how porous our borders are. Its not just illegal immigration, or terrorism, or drugs, or crime, its many things, including quite a few weapons going down to Mexico apparently. After reading the GAO reports and a few Congressional Reports, its just astounding how little we do to protect our borders, and how much we overwork the people that actually do the work.

    Illegal immigration is an issue that seems to affect every other economic issue including healthcare. There are those who say illegal immigration is helpful to the U.S. economy, and I suppose it is by some measures. However, most of us don't live our lives by those measures, we live our lives by the measures that are affected adversely by illegal immigration. We live with the fastest growing population in the industrialized nations, it affects our schools, our jobs, our healthcare, our enviornment, and much more of our lives. The Democrats seem to want to "own" these problems without taking for their part in the illegal immigration problem and responsibility for solving it. Their solutions are legalization of those here and tepid enforcement if any. They do not respect the views of the citizens on this issue, rather they slam any view contrary to theirs as "racist, nativist, xenophobic". They are out of touch with everyone but the elite progressive, upperclass on this issue.

    Oh, we also don't care about Guiliani's love life, its his other issues, nor do we care about the Clinton's love life, its other issues. The Republican in the bathroom should have been and should be continued to be treated like any other citizen. Its very ingenous of the Dems to attack him for apparent homosexuality yet say homosexuals should not be treated differently because of thier sexual preference. This type of behavior from the Dems has turned me and others away from them. They do not hold themselves to their own standards, which makes them no different then Bush and the Republicans we were so frustrated with.

    We can go to the polls and blame the Republican's for Bush & cohorts, if we do we will likely end up with the same thing in Democrat clothes. We don't need that. More then anything we need a leader that will do the right thing for this nation, putting the nation and its citizens before the party, a leader that will be trustworthy and honest, and respects all of us. I cannot say that I see that in any of the candidates yet. I do hope that one will show themselves to be what we need in a President, win, and then be that.

  • Mike (unverified)
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    Winz

    Your post is about the best I have seen here. I agree totally. What we need now is a leader who represents all of the people of America and not another politician. Sadly, all we are getting a partisan politicians. Great posting.

  • ETM (unverified)
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    Regardless of how you interpret the polls, what counts in Presidential elections is the ELECTORAL vote, not the general vote. The polling data this early just doesn't go state-by-state so it's basically irrelevant. Much was made in 2000 and 2004 that nobody has won the presidency without carrying at least one southern state (neither Gore nor Kerry did). Florida's demographics have turned more red since 2000, as demonstrated in 2004. The big question I have is: What southern state can Hillary carry? So it all comes back to Ohio again. Rudy and Romney are both northern (supposedly socially moderate) Republicans who may play well in place like OH and PA.

    The Republican base is currently shell-shocked and demoralized and does not seem to approve of any of their candidates. The only way a Republican can win is if Hillary wins and scares them all back to the polls.

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    I have three concerns about our Democratic prospects in 2008. First, that some national security wild card reshuffles the deck making all that polling obsolete. Examples would be a war with Iran, military action in Pakistan to control their nuclear weapons after the government implodes, or military action in the Taiwan Straits. Second, that Congressional Democrats fail to deal responsibly with budget issues. By continuing, for examples, to allow earmarks, excessive agricultural subsidies, and a bloated defense department budget, Democrats do not yet seem economically responsible. And third, that Democrats become increasingly divided over the trade issue.

  • Daniel Spiro (unverified)
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    Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm increasing coming to view Hillary as unelectable, regardless of whether her views are more in line with those of Americans than the views of any Republican candidates. Once the GOP attack machine hits its stride next summer, her negatives will increase still further ... and they're already extremely high. Edwards and Obama drew some blood from Hillary just by getting a little negative. The GOP will draw a lot more blood. They're going to make most Americans view her candidacy the way most progressives currently would view a Jeb Bush candidacy -- you can sum it up in two words, "enough already."

    The list of Republican candidates is so weak it is pathetic, and yet if Hillary runs (just like if Jeb ran), the election would be a referendum on the candidate with the oversized name. In short, if the Dems want to win the White House, they should go for any candidate OTHER THAN Hillary (or Kucinich or Gravel, obviously). Anyone else, in my opinion, would win. And in the cases of Obama and Richardson, they just might win in a landslide.

  • ETM (unverified)
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    Daniel, the Republicans are just as strong if not stronger than the Dems. Edwards and Obama are basically one term senators and that's it. Until 7 years ago Hillary did nothing but be there while her husband held office. And as a senator she's voted exactly the wrong way on Iraq. Giuliani was a successful mayor of NYC and held many offices, Romney was a gov and very succussful in private business. This is going to become a major issue once the election reaches the R vs D stage.

  • (Show?)

    ETM, most states haven't done polling--it's just too early. Looking at the national mood is one data point, and the only one we have.

    As to winning a southern state, it's untrue Dems need to win one. Ohio would have tipped the election.

    Hillary may be unelectable, but her positives are going up and negatives down. Rudy's are going the opposite direction.

  • Admiral Naismith (unverified)
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    Seems to me, every Democrat running would beat any Republican running. That's the trend in every poll I've seen. The difference is that Obama and Edwards would make it a historic landslide, and have the coattails to ensure the defeat of Smith and many, many other Congressional Republicans. Both would put many southern states, even in the deep south, into play, for different reasons (appealing to white, or black southerners while the GOP nominates a non-southerner that they don't trust).

    Clinton would win too, and would carry Oregon handily, but without coattails. The South would mostly go GOP as usual, but some combination from among Ohio, Missouri, West Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona would pull her over the top. And even Clinton would be competitive in the Southern states of Virginia, Arkansas and Florida.

  • backbeat12 (unverified)
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    The difference is that Obama and Edwards would make it a historic landslide, and have the coattails to ensure the defeat of Smith and many, many other Congressional Republicans.

    Thank you Admiral. Absolutely correct. If Mrs. Clinton is the nominee, we can kiss goodbye the prospect of ridding ourselves of that awful 90% bushie, Smith. What is with her economic advisor bragging on cspan last week about her collaboration with Smith? Please, no clinton.

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    Jeff,

    How do you rate the quality of these polling data compared to the ones you gave us last week (or so) which appeared to show immigration as potentially much more significant when broken out, leading you to say it was a "must deal with it" issue? I have my doubts about the practicalities of how to do so, which are as difficult for Ds as Rs, but does that earlier poll give pause about this one, or does this one discount the other?

    Winz, what makes you think "most people are ok to use military [in Iran] now"? Do you think most people are paying attention?

    I hope you're wrong. Apart from being (again) illegal aggression that will further erode international law, and thus morally wrong, it will make what we are facing in Iraq look like a picnic and make the U.S. less secure, not more, even as the Iraq war has done. If the U.S. military is straining under the burden of the war in Iraq, attacking Iran will require huge increases in military spending & perhaps a draft.

    Also Winz, how would you approach the illegal immigration issue? Mike, on another thread eventually made it clear that he is focused on some fairly specific approaches centered on legality, heightened border enforcement and employer sanctions.

    Mike felt I was accusing him of racism by raising the problem of racism in the debate, which I don't believe can be wished away. But for the sake of clear discussion here, let me state clearly that I don't believe Mike to be motivated by racism.

    Mike, I apologize that my expressions about a different issue made you feel you had to defend yourself against that charge (which is an example of how effects, perceptions of the receiving end, tend to trump intentions). I didn't mean to make you feel that way.

    Winz, likewise let me state that in bringing up that past thread mainly becaue I want to have a more informative discussion, I mean absolutely nothing about you. I have no reason to think you are so motivated, based on what you've said so far.

    So, what steps would you like to see taken?

  • Akbar al Zoidberg (unverified)
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    Me is agreeish with mullah cimoc who say thing that is truer. You see soon to. You see

  • genop (unverified)
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    Oh, how far we've fallen. John Adams toiled briefly on his farm when he was informed that he had been elected president. He then hitched up and made the journey to Washington. No campaigning, no $$ spent on getting out the message, etc. Today a campaign is a war-like competition. When the dust clears, we expect those highly contested competitive juices to recede and a spirit of cooperative governing to prevail. Where all points of view are respectfully debated and the resulting legislation, balanced, fair, and most importantly beneficial to our well being. It seems that politically charged competition is at the root of public dissatisfaction with the institution. Perhaps after the election, before the governing begins, we should gather all newly elected officials for a game of dodge ball. You know, just exorcise the demons before starting the session.

  • (Show?)

    Chris:

    How do you rate the quality of these polling data compared to the ones you gave us last week (or so) which appeared to show immigration as potentially much more significant when broken out, leading you to say it was a "must deal with it" issue?

    Good question. I think they're both accurate, but the one last week was a poll of Oregonians. I think what that suggests is that immigration is a regional issue--but among the regions where it is an issue, it's big. New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada are all swing states, so a Dem cannot overlook immigration.

  • (Show?)

    Thanks Jeff, that makes sense. I think it also turning up in some different places than historically, though not all of them are swing-ish -- e.g. North Carolina, Iowa.

  • steven andresen (unverified)
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    Hi,

    I'm not at the moment impressed with polling numbers to tell me who will likely win, or who has a better chance.

    I am interested in someone who is consistent and not just someone who's fresh out of political school.

    So, I rate my candidates at this point:

    1) Ron Paul 2) Dennis Kucinich 3) Fidel castro

    I have never voted for a Republican because they've all seemed wrong on war and social issues. I will vote for Paul if he's on the ballot against anyone, primarily he seems the most serious candidate against the wars.

    I will vote for Kucinich if he's around, but he seems to have less impact and influence.

    I will vote for Fidel unless the other two here are on the ballot because none of the rest of them have appealed to me.

    I gave up on the Democrats a little while ago because they're weak on peace, slovenly on the rule of law, and cowards as a group on the floor of Congress.

  • andy (unverified)
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    Pelosi, Reid, Rangel, Murtha, etc are driving the poll numbers down every week. They have shown themselves to be ineffective wind bags. A lot of ranting, not much action. They're captive to their masters, the unions, farmers, left wing nut jobs, etc. That was fine when they were in the minority and everyone expected them to spend their time ranting and raving. Now they're in the majority and they are supposed to work across the aisle and get some stuff accomplished. So far they haven't done much of anything except continue to posture. 50 years from now the history books will say something like this about Pelosi. "first woman elected speaker of the house, generally considered to be ineffective and was quickly forgotten".

  • Zarathustra (unverified)
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    Let's make this real simple. How much pain has she caused Shrub? How about the average Democrat?

    She has actually been very effective. She has taken the Dems, IMHO, fully 1/2 of the way to the end of the party. She has used every method she disparaged while running, delivered none of her constituent oriented promises. She tried to make up with the "genocidal Ottomans" resolution, but has backtracked saying that it might not be do-able. She can't even get a non-binding resolution for her base. Not that it was a good idea. Horrid policy at the moment, but a symptom nonetheless.

    She and Hillary are really threatening the party's existence. Voters have seen that it makes no difference who controls the Congress. They're likely to see the spectre of Hillary talking business as usual on things like the War on Drugs (Bill doubled the federal prison population all by himself, 90% nonviolent) and John McCain saying that he would leave issues like that up to the States. Wake up! If there is no difference in the two parties, do you think both will continue? Which do you think will go? The Dems have become Reps, not the other way around. Actually, in that sense, you're already gone. Met AG candidate Kroger in the flesh? Brings back memories. Makes you say, "Hey, those other people aren't Democrats, who are those people, anyway"?

    Put another way, you ripped off everyone that voted Dem last year. Many will not make the mistake again. Ever.

    I agree. Viva Fidel, Essex girls and la liberation!

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