The 2008 Presidential Primary Punditology Challenge
Kari Chisholm
Well, it's almost 2008. And that means that the election is very nearly upon us. After months of jockeying, we're going actually see some voters tell us where they stand. Very likely, the nominations will be entirely decided on or before February 5.
So, it's time for my biannual Punditology Challenge. We're starting early this year, with a special January edition - covering the primaries and caucuses of the month. (And yes, we'll do another one for Super Tuesday.)
Do you think you know the top-three order of finish in the Iowa Caucus? Which Republican will win the South Carolina Primary? Which candidates will drop out before Super Tuesday?
Correctly predict the winners and you could be famous. For each Punditology Challenge, we usually get a couple hundred activists, bloggers, journalists, candidates, lobbyists, and consultants to put their crystal balls on the line. There's no money in it, but if your crystal ball is the finest of them all - we'll bow down before your greatness and proclaim it to the world.
(In 2004, Intel policy guy Jonathan Williams correctly picked every governor's race, every Senate race, and all but one state in the presidential race. I'm still amazed.)
So, what are you waiting for? The deadline is Wednesday night at midnight. Enter the Punditology Challenge.
On Thursday, I'll report back the consensus picks here. We're usually right (though when we're wrong, we're spectacularly wrong.)
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Dec 31, '07
Iowa: Dems-Edwards, Clinton, Obama Repubs- Huckabee, Romney, McCain
New Hampshire: Dems-Edwards, Obama, Clinton Repubs- Romney, McCain, Huckabee
1:36 p.m.
Dec 31, '07
Bill, you should click through Kari's original link and take the entire challenge.
I hold little personal hope for a repeat performance from last year; however, I already consider myself a winner this primary. During the summer, I had the foresight to trademark the phrase "it's all about turnout" and the results have been truly outstanding. Thanks, pundits!
2:12 p.m.
Dec 31, '07
I completed the survey, but I agree exactly with Bill. Here's my non-punditology prediction: if anyone but Obama wins Iowa, Hillary gets the nomination. If Obama wins, he gets the nom. I don't see a plausible scenario for Edwards winning the nomination--but and Edwards win in Iowa equals a Hillary win in the primaries.
1:14 p.m.
Jan 1, '08
I wonder if there's a chance that Michigan and Florida may end up "counting" more than it seems & than this poll recognizes.
Both are big electoral vote states, and if someone running marginally after New Hampshire did surprisingly well, it seems possible that it could help that person. Why does not having delegates at stake make them different from Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire, where very few are at stake?
Limited campaigning could lead the media to downplay results -- but on the other hand the media have an interest in horse-races.
9:21 p.m.
Jan 1, '08
Chris... Because all the Democratic candidates have pledged NOT to campaign in Michigan and Florida.
Even more to the point, all the candidates except Hillary have removed themselves from the ballot in Michigan.
11:53 p.m.
Jan 1, '08
The removed names from ballot part definitely answers the point for Michigan, unless HRC somehow lost to a write-in campaign. But if someone wins in Florida even if no one campaigned there, is that really not going to help whoever wins there afterwards? Florida? No reason to quibble about the poll, which is just for fun, though.
Actually I more meant to comment on something it made me think that I hadn't noticed before.
1:56 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
dems Obama-Edwards-Clinton
reps Huck-Mitt-McCain
(i get a "Page not found" error trying to get there)
Jan 9, '08
GOP: Huckabee, Romney, McCain Dems: Obama, Clinton, Edwards
Nov.4, 2008 Huckabee