5/20/2008

Jesse Cornett

Here’s the Democratic Delegate Count
Total needed to win: 2025
Obama: 1144
Clinton: 1138
Remaining Pledged: 1176
Remaining Superdelegates: 443

Barack Obama is 881 away from having enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination and the closest, by a nose. Meaning to prevent the superdelegates from deciding this race one of the candidates would have to win 75% of the remaining pledged delegates (essentially one candidate would have to start crushing the other in every remaining state). I think that is highly unlikely, based on the results so far this year.

What does this mean to Oregon? Unless the superdelegates decide they don’t like the attention being showered upon them for being undecided (according to news reports, at least), this election could very easily come all the way to Oregon (if not go all the way to the Convention) before the Democratic Party has a nominee.

There are 103 delegates at stake on May 20th 2008. 52 here, 51 in Kentucky. There’s not a lot of delegates at stake immediately before or after Oregon’s Primary. May might be a fun month!

Comments

  • (Show?)

    Yo Jesse... When reporting the delegate counts, it would be useful to split out the pledged and unpledged counts. After all, the unpledged superdelegates can change their mind anytime they like.... so they're "soft".

    Also, quite a few of the delegates aren't actually decided yet - caucus states need to get through their second-round and third-round processes, and some states (Washington, New Mexico) are still counting ballots. So, it's useful to provide a source as to your estimate.... everyone's got a different count.

  • (Show?)

    Not a few--a lot. If you compare counts by media outlets, you get fairly radically different totals, even leaving aside the superdelegates.

  • (Show?)

    Good comments Jeff and Kari. This is a snapshot in time. For better or worse, here's where I got my count: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

    Also Harry Esteve has a good article today: http://www.oregonlive.com/oregonian/stories/index.ssf?/base/news/1202790313152660.xml&coll=7

    The bottom line is that it is going to be very hard for either candidate to win it without it either coming to the later states or relying on the superdelegates, who my not give their support until late in the game.

  • (Show?)

    There may not be a bonafide winner by OR, but if Obama wins our in February, Hillary's going to havero win both TX and OH to stay alive. If she can't do that, I believe Obams will win by acclimation, including the switching of supers.

    Still, every delgate will be important, so I think no matter how you slice it there will be some excitement in OR for the vote. Too bad it's a closed primary.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Might be a good time to provide contact information for presidential campaigns in Oregon. If they aren't organized yet, they should be soon. Involvement in a contested presidential primary is a wonderful experience.

  • Trent Lutz (unverified)
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    LT,

    Neither Obama or Clinton have official campaign offices in Oregon. At the Democratic Party we are working to try and capture as much of the support that is out there so that as soon as either candidate sets up shop, they will have access to their supporters. People can go online to sign up for Senator Clinton's Oregon Campaign or Senator Obama's Oregon Campaign. Supporters can also sign up to become Neighborhood Leaders to walk thier own neighborhood to help ensure that Democrats win no matter what in 2008!

  • (Show?)

    Gary Hart can testify to the fact that it's gone down different in the past... however I do believe that TJ's projection is the mostly likely scenario for how this particular one will go down.

  • Grant Schott (unverified)
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    I was happy that OR kept it's tradition May primary because I felt that the only way we had a chance to receive any attention was to gamble that there would be a race in May when few states are left to vote. All of those states that voted on Feb 5th didn't see much of the candidiates. They only spent a day each in WA. Obama and Hillary (if she is still in the race in May) will probably spend more time here they than did in California.

  • Miles (unverified)
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    DemConWatch is reporting that the number of superdelegates has dropped to 794 for two reasons: 1) the sad death of Tom Lantos, and 2) some churning at the DLCC that resulted in one member being replaced by someone from Michigan, which doesn't get any superdelegates. I'm not seeing that reported elsewhere, but it makes sense given that the number of superdelegates isn't fixed. Given the drop, the number of total delegates needed to win is now 2,024.

    I'm not sure Clinton is finished if she loses Texas and Ohio. Even if Obama wins 55% of the remaining pledged delegates, he'll only have 1,791 to Clinton's 1,667. (This assumes no more supers declare.) As she's been doing for weeks, Clinton is going to "count" the Michigan and Florida delegates when her surrogates talk to the press, which will put her just about even with Obama if not slightly ahead. At that point, she'll argue vigorously that the convention should decide the nominee (and whether to seat FL and MI), and she and Bill will try to influence the party insiders, many of whom got their start under Bill Clinton.

    I'm not saying she'll win the nomination in such a scenario, because I want to believe Steve Maurer when he says the superdelegates will do the right thing. But I'm not convinced that Clinton will let it go easily.

  • Miles (unverified)
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    I should add that I think it's likely that Clinton will pull out small victories in Texas, Ohio, or both. Won't matter much in delegates, but gives her the credibility to soldier on to the convention.

  • The Yogi (unverified)
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    This may not be the most appropriate forum, but since we are on the topic of delegates winning and losing I figured I would bring u this incident I witnessed yesterday. I was at my doctor's office where a patient came in for a visit and had no insurance as he had been unemployed since December. Obviously an educated guy but out of money and out of luck. He must have had prior medical bills and had made prior arrangements for paying $10 a month for his medical bills from the past. This new visit prompted the office to require payment from him and required him to sign a document that was almost like a credit application. He refused to sign it and it created tense moments for him and the staff and folks like me around him. It was hard to see the pain in his eyes. He was not turned away, but he could have been. It was a reality check. We are all talking about delegates, about elections, but I see not much discussion on serious issues like healthcare and who really has a plan that would work. I went back and looked at both Hillary and Obama's sites for more details. It seems like Hillary has the most solid plan (along with Edwards) which makes universal healthcare mandatory. I realized the importance of that yesterday. I have lived in Canada so I know the pitfalls, but with a government mandated plan, everyone is at least covered for basic healthcare which is what this gentleman struggled for yesterday. I know Jeff Merkely is a big proponent for the same. My vote for Hillary and Jeff. And for those of you who may be following the tide of "change", "presence", "charisma" how about going back and looking at experience, policy and meat behind the bones. It was a reality check for me yesterday. I hope all of you reading this would do the same in case the democratic primary does come to Oregon.

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    Supporters of Senator Barack Obama should also register on barackobama.com. If you are in Southern Oregon, please also join our Oregon South group. If you click my name on this blogpost, it should take you to our group page. This will help our network.

  • MCT (unverified)
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    Re Yogi's comments....Does anyone know how the candidates' proposed mandatory health coverage would apply to those who are self-employed or work as independent contactors? These imcomes tend to vary...wax and wane by season or supply/demand market changes. Will these folks fall through the cracks?

  • Miles (unverified)
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    Before this hijacks into a health care thread, can I suggest that B.O. start a series of posts on the policy differences between Obama and Clinton? It's probable that our primary will matter, at least sort of, and this might help folks wade through issues. (I know Chris Lowe did a post awhile back on mandatory vs. non-mandatory health reform. . . more of that, please!)

    In reality, Obama and Clinton are pretty close on health care. There are differences between the two plans, but the mandatory issue is the biggest. Although when you dig in, it's not really that big a difference. Clinton will require participation and garnish wages for those who refuse. Obama won't require participation, but has talked about a "claw-back" provision for those who don't sign up for insurance but later require health care that they can't pay for.

    Both Democrats want universal coverage. The big difference is with Republicans, who don't believe that everyone deserves to be covered.

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    HELLO VIRGINIA!!

    It was called for Barack right after the polls closed, exit polls showing a 2 to 1 margin and Barack beating Hillary across most demographics, including women.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    If the Clintons outmaneuver Obama at the convention, even though he has more elected delegates, Bill and Hillary will be likened to Lord and Lady Macbeth.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Great comment, Tom. But can you imagine either Bill or Hillary being caught by a TV camera saying "Is this a dagger that I see before me, the handle toward my hand..."?

    http://shakespeare.about.com/cs/generalsites/a/quotesmacbeth.htm

    Our Senior English teacher in high school had us memorize lines of our choosing from Macbeth. A bunch of us memorized that speech and got weird looks in the school hallways as we recited it out loud to each other as we walked down the halls.

  • (Show?)

    Ours is a closed primary, but there is still plenty of time to change your registration - April 29th is the deadline.

    I'd recommend that any time you talk with someone about the election that you ensure they're registered as Dems, and if not, make sure they know of the April 29th deadline. Party change is one of the things you CAN'T do after the voter registration deadline. So if you're a NAV and decide on May 10th you want to participate in the primary, you're out of luck.

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