Countdown to Filing Day: Oregon State Senate
Kari Chisholm
Friday, I wrote about the campaign to field candidates for the Oregon House - and now we'll take a look at the Senate. Of course, on the Senate side, there are only 15 seats up each election - compared to 60 in the House - so there's not nearly as much to dissect and discuss.
First, a look at where we stand now. In the Senate, Democrats currently have an 18-11 majority, with one left-leaning independent (Avel Gordly, I-Portland). Of the 15 seats up in 2008, seven are held by Republicans, seven are held by Democrats, plus that one independent.
Of course, with a functional 19-11 majority, opportunities for pickups by Democrats are few and far between. After all, we've pretty much wiped out the Republicans in all the marginal seats already.
But does that mean the Republicans have a target-rich environment? Not hardly.
Democrats with Republican challengers
Well, there aren't any. Not a single Democratic incumbent has drawn a GOP challenger.
Democratic open seats
There are two open seats held by Democrats, plus that one independent. Avel Gordly's and Kate Brown's seats are both safely Democratic. Gordly's district features a primary race, while Brown's appears locked up for Rep. Rosenbaum.
The district currently represented by Ben Westlund has one Republican candidate, and no Democrats. Of course, the last time Westlund was elected, he too was a Republican. This is the best opportunity for a GOP pickup in 2008.
| 21 | DEM | Diane Rosenbaum | Incumbent: Sen. Kate Brown |
| 23 | DEM | Jackie Dingfelder | Incumbent: Sen. Avel Gordly |
| 23 | DEM | Sean Cruz | |
| 27 | GOP | Chris Telfer | Incumbent: Sen. Ben Westlund |
Republicans with Democratic challengers
Just one Republican incumbent is facing a Democratic challenger. Senator Fred Girod (R-Stayton) was appointed to the seat (when Sen. Roger Beyer resigned) - and faces three Republican primary challengers, and two Democrats vying for the nomination.
| 9 | DEM | Bob McDonald | |
| 9 | DEM | Steven H. Frank | |
| 9 | GOP | Sarah Arcune | |
| 9 | GOP | Herman Joseph Baurer | |
| 9 | GOP | Rep. Fred Girod |
Republican open seats
There is one Republican-held open seat. Senator Gary George (R-McMinnville) is leaving office. So far, there's only candidate filed - Rep. Brian Boquist (R-Dallas). Of course, at the end of the 2007 session, Boquist announced his retirement from politics, so it's unclear what's really going on here. To date, there are no Democrats filed for this seat.
| 12 | GOP | Brian J. Boquist | Incumbent: Sen. Gary George |
Everybody else
On the Democratic side, five incumbents have no Republican challengers.
On the Republican side, five incumbents have no Democratic challengers so far. There's less than two weeks left, but let's see if we can find challengers for them.
| 1 | GOP | Sen. Jeff Kruse | |
| 2 | GOP | Sen. Jason A. Atkinson | |
| 5 | DEM | Sen. Joanne Verger | |
| 14 | DEM | Sen. Mark Hass | |
| 18 | DEM | Sen. Ginny Burdick | |
| 22 | DEM | Sen. Margaret Carter | |
| 25 | DEM | Sen. Laurie Monnes Anderson | |
| 28 | GOP | Sen. Doug Whitsett | |
| 29 | GOP | Sen. David Nelson | |
| 30 | GOP | Sen. Ted Ferrioli |
One caveat: I'm working with the official candidate filing data on ORESTAR. Almost certainly, there are candidates that are out campaigning for office without having actually filled out their candidate paperwork just yet. Between now and March 11, expect to see a rush of last-minute paperwork - from "everybody knows they're running" late filers to surprise candidates.
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9:39 a.m.
Mar 3, '08
Every year, there's a seat the "experts" say we can't win, but then we lose by such a small margin it's clear that, had resouces gone there, we'd have a pick up. This year, my early pick is SD 9. Bob McDonald, a soft spoken physician with a great record of civic involvement, simply wowed a bunch of us at a union endorsement meeting as something pretty special, the kind of person we hope runs for office but almost never does. Folks should take a look at this race, despite the R edge in the seat. Let's not let this be the one that slips away.
Mar 3, '08
One of those "can't win" seats that Marc referred to was HD 59 in 2006, where Jim Gilbertson spent $20,000 of his own money, raised another $10,000, and won 49.5% of the vote, despite being outspent 2-1. Jim won almost 47% there in 2002 after spending only $7,000, which was a, 8-1 defecit.
Jefferson CO. Commissioner Mike AHern is running there this time and is a promising candidate who would be a fine legislator.
Jim is considering running against Ferrioli in SD 30, although it would be a daunting race as it's one of the most Republican districts in OR. Ferrioli only narrowly won 1996 in the old SD #28, but that district included Wasco and Hood River Counties which lean D.
Still, I think that Jim, the "fair frugal farmer", would be a good candidate.
Mar 3, '08
Senate District 23 May Primary update:
The March issue of Portland Monthly Magazine is on the newsstands and in the hands of its subscribers with a feature article titled “The Underdog,” referring to yours truly, Sean Cruz.
The article underscores in its own way that this race for the May 20 Democratic primary is about issues, ideas, and the best fit to succeed the retiring Senator Avel Gordly.
Actually, I’m not that big an underdog. My full-time job for the past five years has been--and is—serving the constituents of Senate District 23, and I am running on that record.
There is campaigning, and then there is providing the service.
Much of my work is reflected on Senator Gordly’s website at www.leg.state.or.us/gordly/news
My web-based campaign is also my contribution to campaign finance reform, and I am completely confident that if I can reach you electronically, I can reach you effectively the same way, and at little or no cost.
I have not actively sought special-interest endorsements or funding, and many of the endorsements the article refers to have little connection to the constituents of Senate District 23, or to the issues that really matter. More on this later.
The magazine’s website hasn’t been updated yet, still has the February issue posted, but here’s the link anyway: http://www.portlandmonthlymag.com/
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