Tonight, a political earthquake

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Tonight, Democrats in the west Chicago suburbs shocked the political world - and made the first ripple in what will be a tidal wave of blue in 2008.

Nuclear physicist Bill Foster (D) won the congressional seat that had been previously held by GOP Speaker Denny Hastert. Foster defeated right-wing dairy millionaire Jim Oberweis by a margin of 53% to 47% in a race that had been called an Obama/McCain proxy war. This was Foster's first campaign, while Oberweis had run statewide three times before. (I mentioned this race earlier, in my post endorsing Obama.)

How big is this? I'll let Daily Kos front-page blogger Georgia10 explain:

This is a red district. Former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert represented this district since 1987, winning reelection by huge margins.

This district includes the city of Dixon, which is the birthplace of Ronald Reagan.

This is a district that President Bush won twice, and in 2004 he received 56% of the vote.

The NRCC poured over $1 million here to hold onto this seat -- nearly a third of its cash on hand.

John McCain actually took time from his presidential campaign to come to Illinois and hold a fundraiser for Oberweis and formally endorse him.

This was an important race. Despite the inevitable spin from the GOP tonight, the fact is that Bill Foster ran in a deeply red district, against an opponent and a Republican machine that blanketed the airwaves with attack after attack. Republicans fought tooth and nail to keep this district, and they lost.

As Bill Foster said on the Thom Hartmann Show on Friday, "this has been a flagship GOP district for generations" and Democrats delivered a shock wave.

Throughout this country, there are districts and states that are less Republican than the Illinois 14th. If a a Democrat can win in the 14th, it's looking to be a very good year for Democrats in 2008.

[Full disclosure: Bill Foster is my client. As always, I speak here only for myself, but I'm pretty sure I speak for everyone when I holler "Wahoo! Go Bill Go!"]

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    And one more Superdelegate for Barack!

  • LT (unverified)
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    CONGRATULATIONS, KARI! Sometimes people bash you for no good reason.

    Perhaps in the future there can be a post about the elements of the victory: did he outspend his opponent, have a better grass roots organization, have better ads, run a more positive issue oriented campaign, voters just sick of the other guy and wanted something new?

  • Daniel Spiro (unverified)
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    Congratulations, Kari! As was said above, if this indeed is one more Superdelegate for Barack, this is GREAT news. I've gotten use to taking you to task for taking on my buddy with the left hook, but I'm proud of you tonight.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    Yes, good indicator for November, absent some hideous surprise in October.

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    Here's a link to Barack's endorsement of Bill Foster, which I am sure was quite valuble in helping him win in this "red" district.

    Bill Foster, the first beneficiary of the Obama "coatails".

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    A good win, and in the best British tradition, a "bielection" that does not hold good portents for the GOP in the Fall.

    But a few caveats for those ready to pop the corks on the "tidal wave":

    Oberweis has run three statewide campaigns in the past, but never did well. This is his fourth loss in six years.

    This area of Chicago has been trending Democratic, as have many suburban areas in American cities. This is good news for the Democrats in the long run--the GOP lock on the suburbs looks to be over.

    Turnout was very low--around 20%.

    This is a good sign for November, but there is a lot of work to be done from now to then.

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    our wee Kari's wee company Mandate Media built the Foster website. with our own election about 2 lightyears in the future, it's nice to see Oregon still playing a role in moving forward the progressive program. all the campaigns and others here in Oregon who've helped Mandate grow have no had a role in this terrific win.

    congrats, Kari -- and Bill Foster.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
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    Dude, this site isn't Dailykos or TPM... we get our national news elsewhere. And blog about it elsewhere. Please stick to covering local Oregon politics (and less about songs and other unimportant things please). You bumped a major local political story (Novick endorsement) for something that we are reading about elsewhere.

    Stick to what you do best.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
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    And, PS, if the only reason you are posting about this is because this guy is your client, then, uh, you are just proving your detractors' points!

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    Man, give the guy a break on this one. This is GREAT news; the idea that they'd drop so much cash they don't have into a race and LOSE it...now they've dropped both DeLay and Hastert's seats, the symbolism is huge. Watch for a bunch more "retirements" in the next couple weeks as more state's deadlines come around.

    He's not exactly going to caucus with the left; he's apparently committed to the Blue Dogs if I heard correctly, so he's kind of bound to disappoint in some key areas. But the win for the district goes well beyond who's occupying the seat.

    Congrats, and great news. It's going to be a sweeping year if this keeps up. Keep the engagement high!

  • Daniel Spiro (unverified)
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    I'll side with Kari here. This is great news -- especially if he's going to endorse Barack. (When will he do that, Kari? I want to see one more point up there on the Real Clear Politics cite.)

    Besides, if people can't tell by now that Novick is "the man" in Oregon, what more evidence did you need than the margin of the teachers' vote itself? Do you really need Kari Chisholm to screw his relationship with his client to point out that there is an Oregon tidal wave as well as a national one?

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    My brother lives in the District and I grew up just east in the Suburbs of Chicago. Believe me this is BIG! This is is Republican territory and has been so for many, many years. One can only hope this continues in November.

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    Peter, this site--and I think Kari has a vague sense of its purpose--is about what's interesting to Oregon progressives. If you think this news isn't of interest or note, fine, but don't lecture us about what's appropriate to post. We put up two or three dozen posts every week, and one about a key race elsewhere isn't going to hurt anything.

    I'd like to add some kudos for Kari, who designed Foster's website. There's that old saying about judging someone by the company they keep--in this case, judging Kari by the clients he has tells a lot. Impressive work!

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    Peter is one of the self-appointed (as far as i know) Defenders of Hillary; i'm not sure why he thinks his charge extends to setting editorial policy at BlueOregon. if he desperately must have local news, the fact that Mandate was part of this victory ought to suffice.

    and if Peter can't see how important this win is for Oregon, he's got as much vision and clarity of thought as a candidate who thinks it makes political sense to endorse the nominee of the GOP over a fellow Democrat.

  • stan (unverified)
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    I don't see what's so sordid about Kari piping up about Foster's win. It's great news for all Democrats. Christ, this isn't Channel 12 we can handle some national news.

  • admiralnaismith (unverified)
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    Good job, Team Democrat! Payback for Tom Foley at last.

    Let the Democrats in Congress take heart--reinforcements are on the way! Including a new US Senator from Oregon, God willing.

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    This is great news for Democrats! Congratulations to Foster and his team.

    Peter, you should spend less time worrying about our blog and more time focusing on the accuracy of your own. Your coverage of Measure 49 did a disservice to the campaign, and not just because you predicted its defeat. The speculation that Measure 49 wouldn't be on the ballot -- and I believe you wrote that it was "75-percent" likely or some -- was pretty irresponsible.

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    One more thing: my post wasn't "bumped." It was -- and still is -- on our front page. Among our readers many skills is the ability to navigate an entire home page! It's amazing what people can accomplish by simply scrolling down on the screen.

    Call it the miracle of the modern keyboard!

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    Peter, if you are going to complain about the topics of this blog, perhaps you would be more comfortable on John McCain site.

    After all, he is the one in the "commander in chief club" with your Hillary, right? Even though Hillary, John & George all went the same way in the most disasterous military decision in recent history.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
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    As the preeminent site for progressives in Oregon, one would have hoped that Blue Oregon's owner/editors would treat it with the respect it deserves, rather than allowing it to also serve as a tool for one editor's political operative business.

    I'm reminded of the controversy about Jerome Armstrong's blog posts in support of Mark Warner while taking consulting payments from him.

    If this site had wanted to retain its value, and any semblance of real journalism, Chisholm would have long ago stopped making posts about his own clients. Moreover, his fellow editors would have demanded such.

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    If this site had wanted to retain its value, and any semblance of real journalism, Chisholm would have long ago stopped making posts about his own clients. Moreover, his fellow editors would have demanded such.

    That his fellow editors, one of whom clearly supports a different candidate and isn't shy about writing posts to that effect, haven't done as you suggest speaks volumes.

    Throwing a temper tantrum because a blog doesn't write what you want when you want it doesn't do anything to lend credibility to you or your favored candidates/causes.

    It seems that your real beef is that Blue Oregon continues to be a very widely read blog despite not doing things as you would have them done. There's more than likely a whole series of good reasons why that is and continues to be the case.

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    Peter's ah, let's see, how shall I say, quirks aside, this is such awesome news. Thanks for sharing it, Kari.

    There are a few stories floating around that have been talking about how we're on the brink of a new, progressive age in which so many of our problems, from global warming to the war to the health care crisis, will be addressed. This is perhaps one of the first pieces of news that proves that these speculations just might be true.

  • Charlie Burr (unverified)
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    That Peter doesn't care about this news of a major Democratic pick-up in a Republican district really says more him than it does Kari.

  • joel (unverified)
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    Just a guess here:

    Mr. Bray is uninterested in this Congressional district because it's in Illinois, which is one of The States That Do Not Count.

    Now a question: If Greg Walden's district somehow went Democratic, and a progressive blog based in, say, New York covered this news, would Mr. Bray post a message there telling them it was not NY news and therefore they had no business covering it?

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    I'm reminded of the controversy about Jerome Armstrong's blog posts in support of Mark Warner while taking consulting payments from him. Finally with that race over Kari can stop the incessant blathering about his client Bill Foster. We are all sick to death of the daily diatribes, Bill Foster this, Bill Foster that, and th--- what? Only like the second time? Really? My bad. OK new topic, how does this relate to our efforts to defeat Smith and Walden? Discuss!

  • Pat Malach (unverified)
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    I apologize in advance for this, but maybe this guy could get his own campaign brew called Foster's Lager.

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    Hey everybody... Thanks to all for the kudos. I played a very, very small role in this. Just the website guy. The credit for the win goes to Bill Foster, his campaign team, and the hundreds of volunteers who hit the streets and the phones on election day.

    And, for those asking, yes, Bill Foster has endorsed Barack Obama - and will be a superdelegate for him. That will be official when his election is certified and he's sworn in on the House floor.

    As for our self-appointed editorial watchdogs, I'll simply refer you to our original mission statement from July 2004:

    It'll be progressive; it'll be smart; it'll be funny; it'll be compelling; it'll be provocative; it'll be unpredictable. It'll be political, but not narrowly so. It'll be a free-ranging social and cultural critique. It'll be by Oregonians and for Oregonians, but not always about Oregon. Above all else, BlueOregon will not be boring.

    It's a blog, not the New York Times. Get over it. If you don't like it, don't read it. There are millions of other blogs - and many of them are quite excellent!

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    p.s. If I were to follow Peter's rule, and not post about my clients, I wouldn't be able to post much of anything related to politics in Oregon.

    After all, my clients include or have included Ron Wyden, Ted Kulongoski, Bill Bradbury, Earl Blumenauer, Darlene Hooley, Jeff Merkley, John Kitzhaber, David Bragdon, Greg Macpherson, Kate Brown, a majority of the Portland City Council (Adams, Sten, Saltzman), the House Democrats, the Senate Democrats, about a dozen individual members of the Oregon House, several state Senators, and a raft of interest groups and ballot measure campaigns.

    Instead, my approach is to disclose whenever I write about one of my clients - and in general, to follow Jeff Alworth's guidelines for ethical political blogging.

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)
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    Peter your pathetic attempts to devalue Obama's coattails and its reporting on this site mark you as one of the weaknesses of the Hillaryites.

    I don't build blogs for anybody. I don't work for any political campaign. I'm no Obama fan boy - ask Charlie Burr. I wrote up the story that Foster was threatening IL 14 some time ago because it is important (in front of Kari, IIRC). I beat Kari on reporting the win. I believe I've spent more bytes on the story. You sir, really need to re-think your strategies because you're making yourself look silly. That isn't to say nobody else has noticed.

  • Charlie Burr (unverified)
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    I'm no Obama fan boy - ask Charlie Burr.

    And to this I can attest. But, Peter, just because Chuck and I didn't see the race the same way didn't mean we let the wild accusations fly. I respect the work Chuck is doing on the east side, and one race isn't going to change that. It's something you should think about.

    Set aside for a second our readers' obvious interest in this: how exactly is Kari influencing a race inappropriately on behalf of a client here? You do realize, of course, that this race on the other side of the country has already taken place, right?

    Are readers in Oregon now going to hop into our biofuel-driven time machines to ensure Foster wins........ just like has already happened?

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    Hey, this is GREAT BIG NEWS and we should all be totally stoked about it. Speaking as someone who actually sent Bill Foster money (even if it was only $100), I even feel a tiny piece of ownership of this outcome.

    Lord knows Kari and I have busted each other's chops from time to time, but I'm with him on this. We should all be celebrating.

    Kari, does he have debt? How much money does he need to raise between now and November?

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    Not sure about debt. I know that in the last few days they were looking under couch cushions for spare change to to squeeze out every last impression of the amazing Obama for Foster ad.

    As for the fall, we'll see. There are rumors that Oberweis will be forced out by the GOP. If it's a weaker candidate, we'll need less. If it's a stronger one, we'll need more. Stay tuned!

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    Well put, Kari. We'll have to hold on until we're certain who's the nominee in November. Oberweis is, technically, but indeed he might be forced out. Although he said that he's going to be going forward and running, so we wait...

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)
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    Charlie Burr, et al;

    I am an Obama supporter by default, which means that rather than any cult like blindness you will see rational reactions from me. There are a couple aspects of Obama's campaign I have always liked, more wide support and cleanliness of rhetoric. Bringing in new participants trumps many many things, provided he can keep them in ugly ole DC. I loathe scorched earth tactics in a Democratic campaign, he's avoided it.

    No candidate is a miracle worker, the existing system still exists and expecting such isn't reasonable. A few more points of public support makes change more likely, a lot of points makes it darn near inevitable. I don't know how Nov will play out or even if Obama will be it, but he shows the promise of having a real impact. I have no idea what his 12 point lead over McSame at this time will mean in Nov, but it is worth considering at least. I'm pretty unsure how dirty the Republicans can get with him and not have it boomerang and he keeps his composure.

    <h2>Is his health care idea as good as Hillary's? Pah. What will get through Congress will look different in either case and neither is universal single payer. There is scant difference between them on policy points, the biggest differences are judgement and philosophy and behavior in that regard. I've made my choice.</h2>

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