Unfortunately, Lim is unbeatable. He has the reputation, however unfounded, of competence and moderation. He also has over $185,000 cash in the bank.

So, no one with $185,000 in the bank has ever alienated a constitutent? "Reputation" matters more than what ordinary folks think of voting record? How did Ryan Deckert ever win legislative elections? Or doesn't that matter because his opponents (established Republicans) had less than $185,000 in the bank?

Everyone in Lim's district had better realize " He has the reputation, however unfounded, of competence and moderation" and not even bother to challenge him? Whatever happened to Dean's idea of "show up everywhere, contest everything"?

In the vein of contested seats in Oregon, I hear that there is now an opponent to Greg Walden (OR-2), Sabrina Shrake---- anyone know anything about her?

See the comments on: http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=55E9208220124BBB8777E0743C367A1A?diaryId=1524

I'm not encouraged that a cursory Google search turns up squat, as I was hoping for a legitimate (Chuck Butcher, where are you?) or semi-legitimate opponent to drain some of his warchest before he runs for Governor in 2010.

LT,

I am pleased that somebody credible is challenging Lim, but I remain skeptical that he can be defeated, even in 2008. Respectfully, I do not believe your analogy to Deckert's campaigns (in open seats in Washington County) contributes to our analysis of HD 52.

A combination of three things make Lim a very formidable incumbent: (1) Very high name-recognition (a result of longevity and a state-wide campaign); (2) over 185k in the bank (an astonishing sum at this point in the cycle); and (3) a reputation for moderation and competence.

Please note that none of these three factors apply to Linda Flores.

Kari I have to take issue with your analysis. The filing deadline is still four days away, leaving pleanty of time for the house R's to file canidadates. Several venerable R's like Brunn have no filed D's running against them. Does that mean he will not have an opponent or that we are simply waiting to file at the last minute? (I hope not) Let's not get to comfortable. After the 11th we can celebrate but lets not underestimate the enemy yet.

Are you for real???

The gentleman running against Olson is a nut, and Hanna's opponent is simply cannon fodder for the D's. Any idiot can file to run in the district he/she lives but, the folks you are mentioning running against the R leadership are nothing but a joke, baby Barton included.

Re-take the State in 08'

Good for you, Jenni!

To correct the record, when Ryan Deckert ran for Senate, he not only defeated an incumbent Republican by maybe 4000 votes---an incumbent who didn't give the time of day to constituents who came to vist, and then wondered why there was a serious challenge, he defeated a member of leadership. E. Qutub is listed as Majority Whip in the 1999 session.

Ryan Deckert beat an incumbent R in a district with a far LESSER Democratic registration edge than John Lim's district, and he did it in a far LESS Democratic year than this is likely to be.

John Lim is going down in 2008.

hey Verasoie, Stop back around occasionally, the comments could use some volume and improved (or different) rhetoric.

Not me, not on a bet. I've had one taste of the Democratic enthusiasm and turn out and I ain't up for dose two. I'm a better trouble maker than candidate and I also can't afford to finance what the voters won't. I didn't manage to raise the $5000 threashold for FEC declaration, that's pathetic.

I have no recognition of the name Sabrina Shrake, but sometimes names get away from me. If a person wants to be serious they need to be out over 6 months before the filing deadline getting things done.

I can't leave that previous in a state of half honesty. If $5K was waved in my face with realistic promises of real support I'd give it more than passing thought before blowing it off. I feel real safe saying that because it isn't going to happen.

Here's the reality of it, short of $100K to try to shoestring it, you might as well stay home. I have no desire to kick my home life and economic situation in the teeth so some people can say, well somebody tried. I already did that once.

Aside from Sen. Dist. 9 and 23, there don't seem to be a lot of contested St. Sen. races.

Keri- House District 58 will have a candidate filing within the next 2 days as for 2nd CD let's face facts it cost money to win the race and Democrat's in the 2nd CD either don't have the money or aren't willing to raise the money it takes to win. When we realize that we need to have a war chest on hand to beat Walden then and only then can we hope of getting 2nd CD back Democratic. We can't expect the candidate to raise all the money to win the race and we shouldn't expect money from DCCC. If it comes then hurray but if it doesn't then we need to be prepared to raise the money to win.

That Olson-Olsen race in D15 ought to keep the voters on their toes. They're going to have to pay close attention to keep track of which candidate is saying what.

Pearn baby Pearn!

Verasoie,

I know nothing of Sabrina Shrake other than that she is Walden's sole Democratic opponent, and that she had better be tough. Last election we had several Dem's in the primary for Walden's seat with Carol Voisin coming out on top, but alas and unfortunately she didn't have the chutzpah to stand up to Walden's bullying tactics.

As you may be aware, Walden made a habit of flipping his opponent the finger whenever he thought no one was watching, and also of calling her filthy names when he thought nobody was listening. Sadly, Voisin's response was to shrink away from it all when she should have been getting right back in the punk's face. I think the death-knell to her campaign came when she and the Little W debated on television. Walden and his loyal sidekick/debate moderator (the journalistic-integrity-devoid Brian Morton of KDRV) both leaned on her really hard and offensively--mostly by use of threatening body language and evil, leering glares. It was a virtual gang-rape, and you'd think the voters would see it, but all they seem to have seen was Voisin cowering timidly and stuttering a lot.

So, I reiterate, I hope this Sabrina Shrake is as tough as nails. Walden (who will NEVER be Governor of Oregon) needs a good butt-kicking in November.

Walden is vulnerable. CD 2 while faithful to Walden also are sick of incumbents. Walden has earned over 1.5 million in wages from "government service". Plus his 125.00 dollars a day in per diem (tax free). http://www.opencongress.org/people/blogs/400419_greg_walden/5 Plenty of examples of how he does not represent CD2 but only the "Party".

Greg Walden gets most of his money for re-election from outside the 2nd District. Only 7% comes from within the district. Walden took money from the Tobacco industry this year. (kind of like my state senator).

Walden has taken $4,342 from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. No surprise that Walden voted with Tom DeLay 94% of the time between Jan. 1 2004 and March 31 2005

Walden voted to weaken the ethics rules in a move that many say served only to protect Tom DeLay.

When Democrats offered a solution to clean up the House by strengthening ethics rules, Greg Walden voted twice to make sure it never even came to an up or down vote.

Since we do not have the money to defeat him and Rahm Emanuel (DCCC) won't spend any money to defeat him it will have to be grass roots.

To win in CD2 you just need to be slightly anti government, fiscally responsible and progressive on Health Care. Add a third party candidate that will really go after Walden on Conservative issues and we may have a winner. I will volunteer time, setup a anti greg website or whatever to break the republican hold on CD2 that goes back to 1980.

<h2>Noah Lemas of Bend also filed on 3/11 for the 2nd CD. So it looks like two now</h2>