Merkley releases second ad - on health care
Today, the Jeff Merkley for US Senate campaign released its second ad of the primary season.
Discuss.
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April 14, 2008 |
open discussion | Comments (52 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 1:45:06 PM
I've got a hottie of my own who I am utterly content with. But I gotta say that Mary is a hottie!
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 2:10:48 PM
kevin, I think you just aced yourself out of any more ad cameos...
Posted by: verasoie | Apr 14, 2008 2:18:34 PM
I have to back up torridjoe on this one and say that this looks like a winner for Merkley (that was your point, wasn't it?).
He's doing a good job introducing himself to voters, although it would be good to see him expounding on his accomplishments in this field as he does have a good list of achievements to run on. Perhaps that is to come after all of this feel-good stuff.
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 2:18:46 PM
LOL - you obviously don't know Jeff Merkley. He's totally secure. Besides which, anyone who has watched them together knows that Mary only has eyes for Jeff and vice versa. They are a GREAT couple who just... fit.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 2:27:15 PM
No, TJ's point was that once again this was the stereotypical off-the-shelf type commercial. The kind where you change a few words, the faces, and the candidate name, and it could apply to any Democratic candidate.
I really keep hoping that the campaign will bring forward a commercial that stands out more. Something that hasn't already been done so many times that it just blends in with the dozens of commercials that are going to run in this state over the next month.
Remember, we're going to have commercials for the City of Portland, Multnomah County Commission, possibly for state legislators, Secretary of State, Attorney General, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate, and President (and maybe even more)
For those in the Portland media market, you're going to be deluged in political commercials. You're going to be looking forward to the day when it's all car, beer, and pharmaceutical ads again. When people are that barraged with ads, you have to stand out. You have to do something different. You still need to do something issue based so people know who you are and what you stand for, but it needs to stick out and catch people's attentions.
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 2:36:01 PM
So what you are saying, Jenni, is that nobody has figured out just what makes an effective campaign commercial? That they seem so similar not because the experts making them know what works but rather because nobody is... brilliant enough to have figured out what Steve Novick knows?
Hmmm... and to think that Democrats took back the state legislature, totally control state-wide elective offices and have generally done very well in Oregon WHILE being terminally boring and barely managing to keep their knuckles from dragging on the ground.
Wow, who knew?
I guess you did.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 2:46:23 PM
Actually, Kevin, that's not what I said at all.
There are those who have figured out what makes an effective campaign commercial. And the common factors among them is that the commercials is that they're different and they stand out from the pack.
I've seen some very effective commercials in my almost 20 years of political work. Rob Brading, for example, had an excellent commercial two years ago that really stood out and got a lot of earned media.
Some choose to stick with the old tried and true method, but as the years go on, those methods become staler and staler.
It's not just ads, but mailers and lit as well.
There was a lot of talk two years ago when Representative Chris Edwards was running for office and his wife (Ali Edwards, who I've been a big fan of for years as she does great scrapbooking work) created a lit piece for the campaign. Jon Isaacs called it one of the best lit pieces he'd seen while working for Future Pac. Link
From what I've heard, people really liked it because it was different. It stood out. People read it instead of immediately pitching it into the recycle bin.
It's something I've been wrestling with in my own campaign - creating something that gets the message across, but is unique enough that it won't end up just buried in all the other political mail, ads, etc.
And we only control state-wide state-level offices. But after November, we should have that last state-wide office in hand as well, held either by Novick or Merkley.
Posted by: Steve Maurer | Apr 14, 2008 2:47:51 PM
I interpret TJ's comment like that as well. If you change this ad's words, pictures, message, timing of when presented, and candidate, to look like somebody else's ad, then..... it will look exactly like somebody else's ad.
Woah. Deep thought. Pass the bong.
As counterpoint, since Jeff isn't able to open beer bottles with his hook (since he doesn't have one), he's better off not trying to be the quirky candidate with the memorable ads. Instead, he's just being himself: the earnest guy with a solid record of progressive accomplishment in a legislative body. Not an entertainer - a legislator who gets things done.
Believe it or not, there are a lot of people who like that in people they vote for.
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 2:50:59 PM
it's not Steve really, it's eichenbaum. They have a knack for designing smart ads
that stick out, and that work for their clients to bust through the noise.
And if you think tired ideas never get play in major Campaigns despite proof they're not successful, have you met Bob Shrum?
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 2:56:40 PM
And if you think tired ideas never get play in major Campaigns despite proof they're not successful, have you met Bob Shrum?
Ever hear of a Straw Man fallacy?
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 3:01:14 PM
There are those who have figured out what makes an effective campaign commercial.
Jenni, the proof is in the pudding, as the old saying goes. Show me an elected Democrat and I'll show you someone who knows a thing or two about what is or is not effective in a campaign.
We all understand that you back Novick and have a vested interest in downplaying anything Merkley does or says. C'est la vie.
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 3:04:20 PM
yes, I have. How is a critique of political ad professionals a strawman for...my critique of ad pros, who it was said MUST know what works--because they're they are, making ads? The implication was "trust the campaign guys." I'm giving you an example of why not to.
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 3:14:15 PM
Has merkley done ads beyond the minnis foley disaster? I mean, he's not had a competitive race in a while.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Apr 14, 2008 3:25:32 PM
Has merkley done ads beyond the minnis foley disaster?
Well, no. He's a legislator, not a media consultant or PR flack. (Unlike some other Senate candidates around here...)
But members of his team, both staff and media consultants, have produced lots of great ads - both last cycle and this. And they're all targeted squarely at undecided voters, not bloggers or activists who've made up their mind already.
My firm built Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself. I have nothing to do with producing TV ads.
Posted by: Jack Murray | Apr 14, 2008 3:36:51 PM
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 3:14:15 PM
I'm pretty sure he had a good amount of input into other ads in 2006, like Brian Clem, Chris Edwards, Jean Cowan, etc.
After all, he did lead a 'band of progressives' to retake the Oregon House. You don't spin 7 seats without a healthy dose of electoral know-how.
I have full confidence in Jeff's media savvy.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Apr 14, 2008 3:50:06 PM
Yeah, I was pretty disappointed that Mary didn't at least twirl a baton while walking a tightrope over the Jackson Bridge; and where were the big red clown noses and the oversized floppy shoes for Jeff and the extras?
There was, however a lot of policy and "intro to the candidate" info for a thirty second ad.
The jump cuts were solid and the copy:
supports Wyden's bill
targets specific lobby groups
family
web addy and,
Any time you lead with Mary, I think you're gonna do pretty well.
Now where are the danged Flesh Eating Zombies, fer cryin' out loud? NAVs love Flesh Eating Zombies.......
As always, I speak only for myself, and a few Shawn of the Dead fans........
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 3:50:42 PM
Mapes is reporting the latest campaign fundraising numbers.
Merkley apparently has more than twice as much cash on hand as Novick.
Mapes is reporting that Novick is going to recycle his old TV ads, presumably to stretch what little money he has as far as it will go.
I wonder if his campaign staff have been asked to forgo paychecks?
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 3:52:30 PM
We all understand that you back Novick and have a vested interest in downplaying anything Merkley does or says.
Actually, that's not true. It just goes to show how little you know about me. And had you read anything I'd written over at Blog for Oregon about this past weekend's Platform Convention, you'd know that.
I had a few moments to speak with Merkley on Sunday, and it was a completely positive conversation as far as comments regarding him (we did have some negative things to say about those in the Senate that defeated some great bills that Merkley and the House Dems passed). During the course of the post on BfO, I stuck up for Merkley. I think he's a great guy and did a lot of good things in the House.
I know that Merkley had a part in some great ads and lit back in the '04 and '06 cycles. He might not have had to do much for his own race, but he was involved in races all over the state. It doesn't have to be quirky like Novick's ads - I just want them to stick out so that people will notice his ad, see what he's for, and what he's done.
I want his ads to stick out more. I'd like to see a great race between two great Democrats. If Merkley ends up being our nominee (Merkley made sure I already have my campaign button), anything that strengthens him in the primary also strengthens him for the general. We have a strong battle to wage in order to defeat Gordon Smith, and every person we get supporting our candidates now grows exponentially the number of voters we can reach and the number of votes against Smith.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 4:15:17 PM
Novick has already committed a considerable amount of money to ads, which is reflected in his cash on hand:
"The campaign finished the primary with over $195,000 cash on hand, which does not include $133,000 already committed towards future television advertising."
So the advertising he's going to be doing isn't coming out of the $195K - that's already been subtracted. So he has $195,000 after paying for his ads.
I haven't seen anything that says whether or not the advertising that is already planned by Merkley in the future needs to be subtracted from their cash on hand total or not. They could be reporting numbers like Obama, where pretty much all obligations are paid, or numbers like Clinton where her "cash on hand" doesn't take into consideration outstanding bills and debts that total more than her cash on hand. If anyone knows the specifics on that, it would be great if they'd let us know.
I'd imagine Steve reusing the ads has to do with the fact that they've gotten such rave reviews. Since they weren't heavily aired the first time, there is still quite a bit of use still in them.
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 4:19:19 PM
Jenni,
I think it would be a mistake for Merkley to try to use kitschy shtick as a campaign messaging theme. It's not who he is nor is it representative of the kind of change he brings.
The ads he is using reflect the kind of candidate he is - A serious candidate tackling serious, timely issues.
The "band of progressives" he led in retaking the state legislature likewise didn't rely upon kitschy shtick.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 4:36:05 PM
The "band of progressives" he led in retaking the state legislature likewise didn't rely upon kitschy shtick.
Actually, the candidates he led in retaking the state legislature had some ads that really stuck out. That's the kind of ads I'm talking about. I'm not saying he needs to do something along the lines of what Steve has done. That would be the wrong thing - it's not Merkley's style, doesn't fit him, and would lead to claims that he was copying Novick.
The House Dems were responsible for some good ads in 2006. Brian Clem, Chris Edwards, and Rob Brading had three of my favorites out of the House candidates: http://www.blueoregon.com/2006/09/house_dems_take.html
Not to mention their good work on radio ads.
Posted by: James X. | Apr 14, 2008 5:25:59 PM
It does borrow from a formula -- to have the candidate's spouse vouch for the candidate -- but that's also a successful formula. I really enjoyed it. I also spoke quite favorably of Novick's TV ad. You can dismiss Merkley's ads as formula-based, but that would be like dismissing Novick's ads as silly oddballs. The fact is, both tactics are effective.
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 5:34:17 PM
"Mapes is reporting that Novick is going to recycle his old TV ads, presumably to stretch what little money he has as far as it will go.
I wonder if his campaign staff have been asked to forgo paychecks?"
Yes, obviously if everyone was getting paid when he took in $220K, the pink slips are next when you bump to $350K.
And wait a minute, here:
Novick is UP 57% from last quarter,
Merkley is DOWN 26% from last quarter, only posting 100K more than Novick
and Merkley people are commenting gleefully about finance??
Posted by: Bob | Apr 14, 2008 5:39:52 PM
I don't have a horse in this race, but Jenni and TJ are correct -- this is an "off the shelf" ad. It's certainly a step up from his first ad, which was completely boring as well as unoriginal. This one at least holds your interest while being unoriginal.
Merkley faces a problem similar to Hillary's: How do you compete with a less-experienced candidate who has ten times your charisma and a motivated fan base? Jeff's answer, much like Hillary's, seems to be to take the high road when it comes to policy while letting your surrogates unleash Rovian political slam tactics. It's a long-shot strategy when you're down by double digits (which, rumor has it, is confirmed by polls beyond Survey USA), but it's one that could work if your opponent slips up enough.
Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 5:50:30 PM
Bob, I think Steve is getting over what appears to be his shock that Merkley would go this way, not a minute too soon. I think in the near future you're likely to see Steve start addressing people as more of a frontrunner, less concerned with what the third place candidate is saying, more concerned with getting his own amazing set of policy choices to be the proper topic of conversation. It's what I'd do, anyway. I think Steve is getting a little lost in the weeds on these non-substantive issues; he's too smart not to correct that and adjust.
Posted by: James X. | Apr 14, 2008 6:01:52 PM
The Hillary-Obama analogy is lazy. It's the most high-profile race right now, but it's not the most analogous.
Posted by: Sal Peralta | Apr 14, 2008 6:24:42 PM
Mapes is reporting that Novick is going to recycle his old TV ads, presumably to stretch what little money he has as far as it will go.
Novick may as well re-use the same ads. They are stronger than Jeff's canned piece. He'll get more out of them with less money.
I'll ask this again and keep asking until someone answers:
Has Jeff Merkley run a good campaign thus far? If so, why is he polling behind Candy Neville? If not, why should any Democrat believe that he is the best candidate to take on Gordon Smith?
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 6:39:58 PM
Has Jeff Merkley run a good campaign thus far?
Campaign Co-Chairs
Governor Ted Kulongoski
Former Governor Barbara Roberts
Statewide Officers
Attorney General Hardy Myers
State Treasurer Randall Edwards
Superintendent of Public Instruction Susan Castillo
Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian
Former Labor Commissioner Dan Gardner
Mayors
Bruce Abernethy, Bend
Bob Austin, Estacada
James Bernard, Milwaukie
Steve Britton, Coquille
Judie Hammerstad, Lake Oswego
Lori Hollingsworth, Lincoln City
Norm King, West Linn
Charlotte Lehan, Wilsonville
John Morrison, Ashland
Alice Norris, Oregon City
Kitty Piercy, Eugene
Tom Potter, Portland
Pat Sherman, Brookings
Charles Swindell, Canyonville
Paul Thalhofer, Troutdale
Charles Tomlinson, Corvallis
State Senators
Peter Courtney, Salem, Senate President
Margaret Carter, Portland, President Pro Tempore
Richard Devlin, Tualatin, Majority Leader
Alan Bates, Ashland, Majority Whip
Mark Hass, Beaverton
Rick Metsger, Welches
Laurie Monnes Anderson, Gresham
Rod Monroe, Portland
Bill Morrisette, Springfield
Floyd Prozanski, Eugene
Kurt Schrader, Canby
Joanne Verger, Coos Bay
State Representatives
Dave Hunt, Gladstone, Majority Leader
Diane Rosenbaum, Portland, Speaker Pro Tempore
Peter Buckley, Ashland, Majority Whip
Arnie Roblan, Coos Bay, Deputy Majority Whip
Chip Shields, Portland, Assistant Majority Leader
Phil Barnhart, Eugene, Assistant Majority Leader
Betty Komp, Woodburn, Assistant Majority Leader
Tobias Read, Beaverton, Assistant Majority Leader
Jeff Barker, Aloha
Terry Beyer, Springfield
Suzanne Bonamici, Beaverton
Deborah Boone, Cannon Beach
Ben Cannon, Portland
Brian Clem, Salem
Jean Cowan, Lincoln City
Jackie Dingfelder, Portland
Chris Edwards, Junction City
David Edwards, Hillsboro
Larry Galizio, Tigard
Sara Gelser, Corvallis
Mitch Greenlick, Portland
Paul Holvey, Eugene
Tina Kotek, Portland
Greg Macpherson, Lake Oswego
Nancy Nathanson, Eugene
Mary Nolan, Portland
Chuck Riley, Hillsboro
Mike Schaufler, Happy Valley
Carolyn Tomei, Milwaukie
Brad Witt, Clatskanie
County Commissioners
Jay Dixon, Benton County
Dave Gilmour, Jackson County
Bill Hall, Lincoln County
Tim Josi, Tillamook County
Dick Schouten, Washington County
Mary Stern, Yamhill County
City Council Members
Sam Adams, Portland
Olga Acuna, Hillsboro
Paul Blackburn, Hood River
Betty Bode, Beaverton
Jack Lorts, Fossil
Greg Scott, Yachats
School Board Members
Brenda Brown, Lincoln County
Linda Brown, Lake Oswego
Chuck Lee, Salem-Keizer
Anne Schuster, Corvallis
Business and Community Leaders
Pat Ackley, Sunriver
Jeff Bachrach, Portland
Molly Bartlett, Portland
Tom Bartlett, Portland
Sam Blackman, Portland
Scott Beckstead, Waldport
Linda J. Bergman, Portland
Arwen Bird, Portland
Rob Brading, Fairview
Eileen Brady, Portland
Brian Brandt, Portland
Bruce M. Brenn, Portland
Jeff Briggs, Timber
Jim Buck, Beaverton
Tina Calos, Salem
Jean and David Campbell, Eugene
David Cannon, Portland
Dan Carol, Eugene
Betty and Bill Campbell, Beaverton
Jane Cease, Portland
Ron Cease, Portland
Sophorn Cheang, Eugene
Debi Coleman, Portland
Andrew Cook, Eugene
Chris Cornelius, Eugene
Gun Denhart, Portland
Yaw Dharmarajah, Eugene
John Dotson, Bend
David Dowrie, Philomath
Sho Dozono, Portland
David Dunning, Beaverton
Ben Dupree, Portland
Lindsey Eckelmann, Portland
Jim Edmunson, Eugene
Lawrence E. Egar, Beaverton
Meagan Evans, Eugene
Rocky Evans, Salem
Maxine Fitzpatrick, Portland
Jennifer Geller, Eugene
Jon Gerlach, Portland
Jim Gilbertson, Culver
Michaela Gore, Salem
Roger Gould, Coos Bay
Michael Graham, Bend
David G. Greenberg, Portland
Mitch Gore, Portland
Stacy Grogan, Portland
Paul Gronke, Portland
Michael Hagmier, Portland
Gary Hansen, Portland
Eric Hanson,
Jim Hill, Salem
Val Hoyle, Eugene
John Huddle, Bend
Pam Hutchins, Portland
Rev. Jill James, Portland
Jake Janzen, Terrebonne
Steve Kafoury, Portland
Kevin Kamberg, Forest Grove
Larry Kirsch, Portland
Paul Knauls, Portland
Chris Knutson, Portland
David Kuhns, Eugene
Richard Lazaro, Salem
Chet Lisiecki, Eugene
Kelli Liverpool, Ashland
Celia Lorts, Fossil
Caitlin Mahy, Eugene
Cj Mann, Springfield
Kevin Marr, Grants Pass
Anastasia N. Mathewson, Medford
Edward McGlone, Salem
Hayden McGuinness, Eugene
Maggie McLaughlin
Teri Mills, Tualatin
Kevin Moore, Portland
Constance Palaia-Marr, Grants Pass
Ty Pettit, Portland
David Peyerwold, Portland
Maria Peyerwold, Portland
Toni Phipps, Salem
Carla Piluso, Gresham
Verna Porter, Portland
Tom Powers, Salem
Mac Prichard, Portland
Fraser and Lynn Rasmussen, Portland
Gretchen Randolph , Portland
Gary Reynolds, Bend
Terry Reynolds, Bend
Tia Richman, Depoe Bay
Richard Riggs, Salem
Charlie Ringo, Bend
Steve Robinson, Cloverdale
Brian Rohter, Portland
Jeff Rola, Bend
John Russell, Portland
Christine Chin-Ryan, Sandy
Pat Ryan, Sandy
Jennifer Sargent, Portland
Rodger Schock, Hood River
Paul Shirey, Milwaukie
Michael Simon, Beaverton
Casey Sparks, Salem
Johnny Spathas, Portland
Kenji Speilman, Portland
Erin Stelzenmueller, Beaverton
Janet Steward, Lake Oswego
Robert Stoll, Portland
Bryan Swisshelm, Portland
Chip Terhune, Portland
Robert Thornhill, Beaverton
Irene Tinker, Portland
Brandon Thompson
Peggy Timm, Baker City
Dr. Nohad Toulan, Portland
Gretchen Valido, Bend
Carol Voisin, Ashland
Heiner Wagener, Newport
Millidge Walker, Portland
Betsy Warriner, Bend
Adam Watson, Beaverton
Mary Beth Weaver, Portland
Joella Werlin, Portland
David West, Ashland
Char Winkel, Portland
Veterans for Merkley
Co-Chairs: Gen. Merrill A. "Tony" McPeak (Ret.), former Air Force Chief of Staff
Jim Rassmann, former U.S. Army Special Forces Officer
Paul Evans, Oregon National Guard,Afghan and Iraq War Veteran
Larry Armstrong, Corporal, U.S. Army
Kat Bell, SPC, U.S. Army
Daniel Davis, Cpt., U.S. Army
Marv Doty, U.S. Navy; Present Commander Beaverton American Legion Post 124
Bruce Freeman, PO2, U.S. Navy
Darvel Lloyd, LTJG, U.S. Navy
Joel Haugen, Sgt., U.S. Army
Wilson Johns, HT3/DV2, U.S. Navy
Mac McFadden, Sgt, U.S. Air Force
Mat Millenbach, 1Lt., U.S. Army
Donald N. Morris, 1Lt, U.S. Army
Angel Pilato, Lt. Colonel, U.S. Air Force (ret.)
Richard Riggs, Lt. Commander, U.S. Navy (ret.)
Dave Roussel, SP4, U.S. Army
William Russell, Major, U.S. Air Force (ret.)
Ronald Sandlin, former U.S. Navy Combat Aircrewman
Dick Springer, LTJG, U.S. Navy
Gary Thompson, SSG, U.S. Army
Robert Thornhill, EN2 (SS),U.S. Navy
Marshall Wilde, Lt. Colonel, Oregon Air National Guard
Jon Zall, Colonel, U.S. Air Force (ret.)
Farmers for Merkley
Co-Chairs:Brian Clem, Pat Malone, Jim Gilbert
Mike McCarthy
Betty Malone
Don & Sandra Kruger
John & Brady Jacobson
Jim Gilbertson
Bikers for Merkley
Mark Anderson, Sandy
Stephan Batov, Portland
Randy Comer, Hillsboro
Heidi Disrud, Hubbard
Dick Edmonds, Portland
Julie Graven, Portland
Roger Hendricks, Portland
Jerry Hutchins, Vancouver
Rena Jackson, Oregon City
Melinda McCrossen, Portland
Quiet Mike (Michael Wojcik), Aurora
Scott Pearlman, Gresham
Randy Phipps, Portland
Matt Price, Salem
Teressa Price, Salem
Jill Tracy, Hillsboro
Bernie Veek, Sandy
Mel Yeager, Albany
Organizations
United Food and Commercial Workers Local 555
International Longshore and Warehouse Union
Oregon AFSCME Council 75
Oregon AFL-CIO
International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers Local 97
Oregon State Association of Electrical Workers
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 48
American Federation of Teachers-Oregon
Exterior & Interior Specialists Local 2154
Council for a Livable World
Oregon Small Business for Responsible Leadership
Citizens for Global Solutions
American Nurses Association
Oregon Nurses Association
Service Employees International Union
The Sierra Club
Basic Rights Oregon
Planned Parenthood
Posted by: local mom | Apr 14, 2008 6:40:28 PM
I don't know who annointed Steve Novick to play the part of Obama in the Hillary/Obama analogy. Obama has a lot of class, and is very eloquent. He hasn't seemed to say negative personal things about his opponent. He pretty much sticks to the issues.
Like it or not, Novick supporters - Steve Novick is no Barack Obama. He's no Hillary Clinton, either.
Posted by: Sal Peralta | Apr 14, 2008 6:48:17 PM
Kev, I already knew that the state's Democratic establishment supports Merkley. What I asked is whether he is running a good campaign. You seem to think so, so why is he polling even with, or slightly behind Candy Neville?
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Apr 14, 2008 6:59:09 PM
When listing endorsements, if a person, organization, etc. has endorsed multiple candidates, it is proper to point this out ("dual endorsement," "joint endorsement," etc.).
At least one on that list as I did a quick scan over it has endorsed both Merkley and Novick: Superintendent of Public Instruction Susan Castillo.
There may be others, I just know right off hand that she endorsed both candidates.
Posted by: Stephanie V | Apr 14, 2008 7:03:39 PM
hmmmm.
Kevin Kamberg / Michael Stipe?
decisions, decisions, decisions.
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 7:23:50 PM
Kev, I already knew that the state's Democratic establishment supports Merkley.
Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club, and Basic Rights Oregon are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
My friend Colonel Zall, Jim Rassman and General McPeak are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Small-town city councilors Paul Blackburn (Hood River), Jack Lorts (Fossil) and Greg Scott (Yachats) are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Community leaders Jeff Briggs (Timber), Jim Gilbertson (Culver) and Constance Palaia-Marr (Grants Pass) are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Bikers Mel Yeager (Albany), Heidi Disrud (Hubbard) and Michael Wojcik (Aurora) are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Farmers Betty Malone, Don & Sandra Kruger and John & Brady Jacobson are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 7:35:52 PM
so why is he polling even with, or slightly behind Candy Neville?
You want to make hay with a poll that shows 40% undecided?
Are you serious?
Of course you are. You just glibly dismissed anyone who supports Merkley as all being part of "the state's Democratic establishment."
Tell ya what, Sal. Ask me that same question on May 21st. Seriously. I'd very much like to read your explanation of that same poll at that point in time.
Posted by: Sal Peralta | Apr 14, 2008 7:36:24 PM
Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club, and Basic Rights Oregon are part of the state's Democratic establishment?
Definitely. Especially Planned Parenthood and BRO who represent two of the largest and best-funded special interest constituencies on the Democratic side.
As for the rest... get another 350,000 endorsers and Merkley may be competitive in the Democratic Primary.
But that isn't the question I asked. I didn't ask who has endorsed Merkley. I asked whether he has run a good campaign. You seem to think so. So why is he running third behind Candy Neville despite spending more than $800,000 over the last 6 months?
Why should anyone think that he is the man to take on Gordon Smith given that he is having a hard time moving past Neville in the Democratic Primary?
Please, Kevin. Enlighten me.
Posted by: Sal Peralta | Apr 14, 2008 7:52:05 PM
You want to make hay with a poll that shows 40% undecided?
That, in and of itself, is a big problem for the Democratic candidates in this race. It is an indicator of what I have said all along, that in the absence of an "A List" candidate, Gordon is probably safer than many folks care to admit.
I think Jeff Merkley is a good man who made a huge mistake leaving the Oregon house to step into this race.
Jeff just doesn't have the charisma, and the paint-by-numbers campaigns that Jon Isaacs runs are not going to beat a better-known, better-funded, opponent in the General Election. The only chance Merkley has to get out of the primary is to blow every dollar in his treasury, and with canned, sanitized, weak-assed ads like this one, even that isn't going to be enough.
Novick may not win in the general election, but at least I can trust that he and Jake Weigler will be creative enough to make this an interesting race. And I can trust that even if Novick loses, he is not going to lose by caving on issues just because institutional funders don't like what he whas to say or because they don't happen to poll well.
Posted by: Sal Peralta | Apr 14, 2008 7:59:25 PM
I overstated my criticism of the commercial. Jeff's wife did a good job.
Posted by: Kevin | Apr 14, 2008 8:13:37 PM
As I said, Sal... ask me again on May 21st.
I'm very much looking forward to how you're going to explain the significance of that poll.
Given your M.O. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting, though. You only seem to weigh in on this race when you perceive an advantage for Novick. Your postings at Oregon Independent verify that observation. Which is why I don't expect you to want to discuss any of it on May 21st. But you are more than welcome to surprise me.
Posted by: LT | Apr 14, 2008 8:39:26 PM
First of all, Sal, all due respect, do you really expect this attitude to prevail among Oregonians who are tired of Gordon Smith?
"Novick may not win in the general election, but at least I can trust that he and Jake Weigler will be creative enough to make this an interesting race. "
Interesting in that musician endorsements, Left Hook Lager, "flammable pants" film clip and the beer ad on the website front page (the meaty issue statements are on another page) are what we should expect from a US Senate candidate, rather than serious discussion of actual issues (country of origin labeling for produce, the 21st century GI Bill, other serious issues )?
We shouldn't be allowed to decide what sort of candidate we want because all good "progressives" should like an "interesting" candidate whose remarks are sometimes called flamboyant?
I like this ad, I guess that makes me a boring person.
"No, TJ's point was that once again this was the stereotypical off-the-shelf type commercial. The kind where you change a few words, the faces, and the candidate name, and it could apply to any Democratic candidate."
OK, it is generic, it is not apart from the rest like the Lonsdale 1990 ad where he stands in the woods and says "Like many of you, I have voted for Hatfield in the past, let me tell you why I am running against him this year" which people talked about for years afterwards.
But what some people on the Novick campaign don't understand is that not everyone thought the beer ad where he opened the bottle with his hard left hook was the greatest ad they had ever seen.
Novick people blasted those who didn't like the ad as Merkleyites (or other names) as if that attitude will win them votes. EVERY Oregon Democrat thinks the ad is funny and drinks beer?
I like the Merkley ad. I liked the Merkley I saw today at a town hall. I understand there are those who think Steve is great, is cutting edge, etc.
But the object of a primary is to win more votes than the opponent. And the people who thank Merkley for specific things he did as Speaker aren't going to vote for Novick simply because Novick supporters say the Merkley ad is generic, "off the shelf", etc. If people see this ad and say "with all this nastiness, isn't it nice to see such a positive, issue oriented ad?", the fact that political professionals don't think it is ground breaking doesn't matter.
Posted by: bdunn | Apr 14, 2008 9:24:24 PM
The important thing to look at for the numbers.
In a quarter where everything went wrong for Merkley and everything went right for Novick, Merkley raised almost a third more than Novick, yes Merkley raised 130% of Novick's total.
Its clear that even Novick's quirky ads can't vault him into the big boys territory in terms of fund raising and that has to be concerning.
I love this ad. Jeff isn't a show pony, hes a seasoned legislator, good guy with Oregon's best interests at heart, and someone that will be an amazing US Senator. This ad shows that. If you're going to vote for glitz you were never going to vote for Jeff anyway. I don't think Ron Wyden, the only candidate to ever beat Smith, relied on grunge musicians from Nirvana or opening beer bottles to do it either.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Apr 14, 2008 9:38:04 PM
Can anybody say with any certainty whether any of the Senate candidates (who will play a role in confirming the next Secretary of the Interior) support or oppose a casino in the Columbia Gorge?
Posted by: Bob | Apr 14, 2008 9:39:22 PM
James X: If you have a more analogous race, I'm certainly open to other comparisons. In the Clinton/Obama analogy, I see Merkley as having more in common with Clinton than Novick does with Obama.
That said, I do think Novick gets a bump in Oregon because he's running a non-traditional campaign that appeals to Obama voters.
Merkley (and his campaign ads) ooze Dem establishment -- as you'd expect a longtime successful House Speaker would. It's just a bad year to be running with that kind of political pedigree.
Posted by: Charlie Burr | Apr 14, 2008 9:53:26 PM
I don't think Ron Wyden, the only candidate to ever beat Smith, relied on grunge musicians from Nirvana or opening beer bottles to do it either.
Actually, get-out-the-vote rallies with Art Alexakis were a regular feature of Ron Wyden's 1998 campaign.
Posted by: Stephanie V | Apr 14, 2008 10:50:06 PM
I like this ad, I guess that makes me a boring person.
A better word might be exasperating, actually. Not because you like Jeff's ad - it's perfectly OK for you to like Jeff's ad. But because your preferred style of argumentation is the straw man argument, in which you make up things no one ever said and then argue against them.
Go ahead and disagree with me, or with other Novick supporters here, LT. But for God's sake please accord us the respect of paying a shred of attention to our actual arguments and then disagreeing with those, instead of pulling lame arguments out of thin air, attributing them to us, and then telling us why we're lame for making them.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Apr 14, 2008 10:53:37 PM
Touche' Charlie.
Though I will point out that Peter DeFazio was the one with the quirky ads in the 1996 primary campaign.
Posted by: porno izle | Nov 18, 2008 9:17:57 AM
No, TJ's point was that once again this was the stereotypical off-the-shelf type commercial. The kind where you change a few words, the faces, and the candidate name, and it could apply to any Democratic candidate
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Posted by: torridjoe | Apr 14, 2008 1:13:46 PM
[kitzhaber]Off the shelf![/kitzhaber]