50,000 Republicans against McCain and Smith

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

On ABC's This Week, commentators George Will and George Stephanopoulous took note of the big vote margin for Congressman and former Libertarian presidential candidate Ron Paul in Oregon's GOP primary.

WILL: ...the Ron Paul vote, which I'll point out was 15% of the Oregon primary.

STEPHANOPOULOUS: Does that mean - well that would be the Bob Barr vote, probably, in the general election.

On Sunday, former Congressman Bob Barr (R-GA) won the Libertarian nomination for President.

Barr, 59, left the GOP in 2006 over what he called bloated spending and civil liberties intrusions by the Bush administration.

The former representative from Georgia said he is in the race to win. "I do not view the role of the Libertarian Party to be a spoiler and I certainly have no intention of being a spoiler," he said.

Questions: Will the 50,000 people who voted for Ron Paul in Oregon's GOP presidential primary affect the outcome by refusing to vote for McCain in the fall?

Are those 50,000 Republicans the same as the 47,000 Republicans who voted for Gordon Smith's primary opponent, Gordon Leitch?

Given the close relationship between McCain and Smith, can the GOP bring home those 50,000 voters - or are they a lost cause?

[Full disclosure: My company built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.]

  • Don (unverified)
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    FYI, Gordon Letich is f-ing crazy, so it really must have been anti-Smith votes for the most part. Seriously, any candidate who bases their views on the gold standard is seriously f-ed up.

  • James X. (unverified)
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    Paul and Barr don't appeal to the same constituencies. I'm surprised Stephanopoulos thought that.

  • Pat Malach (unverified)
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    Weren't there about 50,000 under votes in the Democratic senate primary?

    What will happen with those potential votes in November?

  • verasoie (unverified)
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    Pat, there were about 90,000, and it'll be our job to turn those voters (as well as susceptible NAVs) to Merkley for the fall.

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    I think a lot of those Democratic undervotes were from people excited about the presidential primary whose enthusiasm did not extend to the rest of the election. We have to persuade those people that a Democratic president will be more effective with another Democrat in the Senate.

    While Barr and Paul might appeal to different constituencies, I think their popularity points to a deep dissatisfaction with the current Republican Party. After witnessing their repeated incompetence and cronyism, voters have concluded that the Bush administration isn't really conservative, but rather it embraces the ideology of selfishness. This has tarnished the other Republicans that supported the president. I can understand why many principled conservatives would be looking to jump ship.

  • James X. (unverified)
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    We'll also have Obama's help, since he will be able to pitch for Merkley in November. Rulial's theory makes sense, that a lot of those undervotes came from people excited about the presidential primary who were either undecided, uninformed or uninterested in other races. In November, they'll have clearer D vs R choices to make, so I suspect that will help.

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    Ron Paul believes in the gold standard too, among his peculiarities.

    Bob Barr may have a potential to get some independents who otherwise might go Obama, as well as to take votes from McCain. He is very strong on civil liberties and was a critic of USA PATRIOT Act (so-called) and other Bush anti-constitutional assaults from the beginning. Don't know about his postion on Iraq.

    My guess would be that Barr presidential voters would go Smith or sit out, based on anti-tax ideology.

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    I'm not particularly concerned about the big drop-off from the presidential race to the Senate race. In the fall, it'll be easy for those folks to vote for Obama - and then run down voting for the Democrats downticket. A primary is much harder work, selecting among Democrats.

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    Kari's right - you have a much, much smaller undervote in the general, especially when you have so many people voting to put a Democrat back in the White House.

    But people saw so many Democrats on the ballot and had no idea who to vote for. So they undervoted.

  • edison (unverified)
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    I watched some of the LibParty convention on C-SPAN. It was fascinating because between each ballot, C-SPAN cameras followed the candidates around the convention floor as they sought to improve their support. Each candidate was "mic'd" and seemed to have no reluctance pointing out why they would be the better candidate. In the end, it came down to 3 candidates: Barr, Mary Ruwart ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Ruwart ), and Wayne Allen Root ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Allyn_Root ). It took 6 ballots, with Barr and Ruwart meeting in the final vote and Barr winning after Root ( 3rd place finisher ) endorsed Barr before the final ballot after pitching himself as VP candidate. Also there was an Oregon connected candidate: Michael Jingosian: http://www.resetamerica.com/main.html

    Barr, the eventual winner, has an interesting history, not only did he (while still a Republican in Congress) vote for the Patriot Act, he also supported the Defense of Marriage Act as well as voting to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq ( http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2002/roll455.xml ). Ruwart, in her unsuccessful bid for the nomination pointed out that Barr will have a difficult time attracting Libertarian voters with that record ( http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/libertarians-si.html ).

    In a weird way, it reminded me of the major political conventions of yore when candidates were selected during the convention instead of during the primaries. Entertaining television ...

  • Jeffrey (unverified)
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    Just a note to correct the opening sentence, Ron Paul is currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives and has no opposition in this November's election for his house seat. He is a former Libertarian candidate.

  • Robert G. Gourley (unverified)
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    Yeah former Congressman and Libertarian presidential candidate should read Congressman and former Libertarian presidential candidate.

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    My mother is a 94 year old Republican who can't stand McCain. She voted for Ron Paul as a protest vote in the primary, but isn't in any way a Libertarian. She will vote for Obama in the fall, but if Hillary was the Democratic nominee she would vote for for Barr as a protest vote. She will not vote for either McCain or Hillary. An 'n' of one.

  • Steve Bucknum (unverified)
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    I have gone through the Crook County vote, generally a fairly strong County for Republicans (with notable exceptions such as Wyden and some local Democrats). There is what appears to be protest votes both in the Presidential and Senate elections, but also a real drop off in voting. Before I get into the drop off issue, note that McCain only got 84.9% of the vote, and Smith got 86.7% - in a Republican primary!

    In the primary election, we had hotly contested County Commission and County Judge races in addition to the Destination Resort issue. You'd think that Republican would at least match the voter turnout of the Democrats. Not so. Of those who did not return a ballot in Crook County, 19% were Democrats, 37% were Independents/others, and 41% were Republicans. The by-party turn out rates were: Democrat 76%, Republican 63%, and Independent/other 37%. (The differences in these two ways of looking at this are the underlying percentage of registration by party.)

    This is in a County that generally has a very high ballot return rate. In the 2006 primary, we had a 72.9% ballot return rate compared to 2008 with a 60.03% return rate. -- Nearly all of that drop off is due to Republicans that did not vote.

    So, between the protest votes in the neighborhood of 15%, and the no votes - even though Republicans have a 13% higher voter registration rate than Democrats in Crook Co., that 13% gap is close to erased by the non-votes, and depending upon which way the protest votes go, it is even better than that.

    If the Republicans are in trouble in a strong-hold like Crook County, what of the rest of the State?

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    Jeffrey and Robert are correct. I've fixed the post. Thanks!

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    Does Barr split the Frohnmayer vote? Does he represent a complementary offset that reduces the potential problem posed by Frohnmayer to Merkley?

  • Miles (unverified)
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    Questions: Will the 50,000 people who voted for Ron Paul in Oregon's GOP presidential primary affect the outcome by refusing to vote for McCain in the fall? Are those 50,000 Republicans the same as the 47,000 Republicans who voted for Gordon Smith's primary opponent, Gordon Leitch?

    Kari, you're off message. Gordon Smith is supposed to be a crazy right-wing conservative, remember? Not a moderate who might drive conservative Republicans to vote for someone else. Ditto(head) with McCain.

    Must. Remember. Talking points. :-)

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    Perhaps Barr can run for president on the basis of his greatest success: the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

    I find it fascinating just how empty of all ideological consistency the Libertarian Party has become. What was once a pretty consistent group (if you think back to the people they ran for president in the 1980s, say) has turned into the vehicle for whichever disaffected wingnut, regardless of previous political affiliation, manages to temporarily capture the party's nominating process.

  • Joanne Rigutto (unverified)
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    If people really want to know why a lot of people voted for Ron Paul in Oregon, you could go over to one of the OR4RonPaul Yahoo lists.

    A lot of people voting for Ron Paul are really pissed off about a variety of different issues. A lot of AntiNAISers are also Ron Paul supporters, they have a big problem with public officials from both the democratic and the republican establishments and big business giving our sovereignty over to the UN, WTO, Office Internationale de Epizootie (OIE), FAO and Codex. They are royally pissed off at Real ID, the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002, the Patriot Act, various land use issues, the UN's Agenda 21, etc..

    What a lot of people, the antiNAISers and others jumping on the Ron Paul bandwagon, see, is half their freedoms being handed over to internationalist for trade purposes and the other half being handed over to internationalists for social engeneering. They've been pushed and pushed and they've had enough. They don't see either the democratic or republican candidates that are currently running as being able, willing or even interested in looking out for their interests. A lot of the votes for Ron Paul are protest votes, but if these people keep gaining steam like they have been, they might eventually give the Ds and Rs something of a run for their money, especially in congressional and state races over the next few years. I believe this is more likely if government on both the national and state levels keeps going in the direction I've seen it moving in for the last 20 years or so.

    Here are a couple of websites that might give you an idea as to why all sorts of people are voting for Ron Paul, even though he doesn't have a chance of doing any more than send a message of dissatisfaction to the establishment, not that it'll do much good....The establishment doesn't appear to be all that interested in listening to people like these, and even if it did, a lot of very powerful and entrenched people would loose money, jobs, influence, etc..

    Granny Warriors Freedom Rally in Washington DC, April 15th Ralley in Sturgis SD, July 2-6

  • Shane Savoie (unverified)
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    While many Libertarian purists bemoan Barr's lack of LP pedigree, I was stoked to see him win in Denver. If he were the same Bob Barr that impeached Clinton and pushed for stronger Drug Prohibition, I'd be burning my LP memebership card right now instead of cutting a check to BARR'08. The guy has come a LONG way.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    While many Libertarian purists bemoan Barr's lack of LP pedigree, I was stoked to see him win in Denver. If he were the same Bob Barr that impeached Clinton and pushed for stronger Drug Prohibition, I'd be burning my LP memebership card right now instead of cutting a check to BARR'08.

    Cool, as long as you send your money to Barr instead of McCain, I'm not bothered.

    The Libertarian Party motto: "I've got mine, Jack, now you f*** off."

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    Kari, you're off message. Gordon Smith is supposed to be a crazy right-wing conservative, remember? Not a moderate who might drive conservative Republicans to vote for someone else.

    No Miles. You're confused. Barr is and has been a consistent advocate for the Bill of Rights (something that cannont be claimed for any of the three current party candidates), and was the impeachment leader because he actually believes that perjury is a serious crime.

    Now I disgree with him on a whole bunch of stuff and my guy Obama is going to win in November, but to just call him a crazy right wing-conservative demonstrates your sloppiness in the use of the terms or ignorance of Barr's historical and current positions.

    The Right (broadly defined) has been mostly hijacked by Newt and the Neo-Cons who have no real core beliefs other than in their innate intellectual superiority and in their duty to deceive the Rabble, but there are still a few principled conservative/libertarians out there. I can disagree with them on many issues without disrespecting them.

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    Pat, your ex-libertarian bona fides give you excellent standing in this conversation, but I'm pretty sure that Bob Barr - like Ron Paul - takes the very anti-libertarian position that women don't have the right to control their own reproductive freedom.

    Oh, and...

    was the impeachment leader because he actually believes that perjury is a serious crime....

    Except that Bob Barr filed a motion for impeachment long before Bill Clinton ever met Monica Lewinsky, much less lied about his relationship with her.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    I don't know what "ex-libertarian bonafides" are supposed to be, but I can admit to having had a flirtation with the Libertarian Party once myself, in the early 80s, at a time when I was appalled by Reagan and disgusted with the Cold War liberals running the Democratic Party. The Libertarian Party was firmly anti-interventionist and that's what attracted me. When I looked closer, however, and looked for more than an anti-intervention stance in foreign policy, what I saw was less attractive: a complete lack of appreciation for the notion of the commonwealth. What I saw was smugness, arrogance, and anti-social aloofness in search of an self-justifying ideology.

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    Pat, do you know if Barr has also called for impeaching Bush? I think he may have but I may be confused.

    Chuck Butcher has a link to a group of civil libertarian conservatives who have an excellent analysis of all the damage Bush has done and what should be demanded to repair it, of which Barr is a part, and with which I'd like to see civil libertarian progressives work. Their program would be good to use in working with Senator Obama if he gets elected, to push him further than he's gone yet, though I think he goes further than Hillary.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    Mr. Lowe,

    I'd like the link you mentioned; I cannot find it on Butcher's blog.

    I agree there is probably some common ground amongst "civil libertarians" of various political stripes, but how does one bridge the gaps? A huge gap that particularly come to mind: firearms. What one group sees as common-sense restrictions for the sake of society, the other sees as a gross affront to personal liberty. I'm of the former opinion, have tried to discuss the topic with folks of the latter, and made no progress at all. OK, that's just me, but I don't see myself as a fanatic (and I've even fired real guns a few times).

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    Regarding Barr's positions on the behavior of the current admin, he's called Bush out on warratless wiretapping in '05, and here he is at CPAC, sparring with Cheney's handpicked boy Viet Dihn:

    Dihn-"The threat to Americans' liberty today comes from al Qaeda and its associates and the people who would destroy America and her people, not the brave men and women who work to defend this country!"

    Barr--"That, folks, was a red herring," he announced. "This debate is very simple: It is a debate about whether or not we will remain a nation subject to and governed by the rule of law or the whim of men."

    <hr/>

    Anyhow, I'm not arguing that he is correct, just consistent. He is a Federalist who believes that states should decide on issues such as abortion rights, gay rights, and so on. He's dead wrong on whether these issues are properly defined as basic human rights, but I can totally disagree with Barr on a lot of very key issues and still distinguish between his principled positions and those of guys like Norquist, Gingrich, Cheney and the whole cast of Neo-Con and Corporatist apologists.

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    Posted by: Pat Ryan | May 27, 2008 10:26:55 AM Barr is and has been a consistent advocate for the Bill of Rights (something that cannont be claimed for any of the three current party candidates),

    Yeah, those constitutional law professors (Obama) really don't give a crap about the Constitution. Come on Pat, a little off the mark don't cha think?

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    Yeah, those constitutional law professors (Obama) really don't give a crap about the Constitution.

    Dude, I thpought we were buds.........Don't attribute words to me that I did not say.

    What I did imply by my quote was that my candidate, Barak Obama sometimes makes mistakes and he made on by being insufficiently militant about the reach of the Patriot Act reauthorization. Here's his explanation from his website:

    Fact Check: Obama's Consistent Position on the Patriot Act January 05, 2008

    Rhetoric: "Sen. Obama Promised to Support Repealing PATRIOT Act, Then Voted to Extend It"

    Reality: Obama Has Consistently Said He Would Support A Patriot Act That Would Strengthen Civil Liberties Without Sacrificing The Tools That Law Enforcement Needs To Keep Us Safe

    Obama Said That the Senate Compromise on the PATRIOT Act Was "Far From Perfect" But Modestly Improved the Original Law By Strengthening Civil Liberties Without Sacrificing the Tools That Law Enforcement Needs to Keep Us Safe. "Let me be clear: this compromise is not as good as the Senate version of the bill, nor is it as good as the SAFE Act that I have cosponsored. I suspect the vast majority of my colleagues on both sides of the aisle feel the same way. But, it's still better than what the House originally proposed. This compromise does modestly improve the PATRIOT Act by strengthening civil liberties protections without sacrificing the tools that law enforcement needs to keep us safe. In this compromise: we strengthened judicial review of both National Security Letters, the administrative subpoenas used by the FBI, and Section 215 orders, which can be used to obtain medical, financial and other personal records; we established hard time limits on sneak-and-peak searches and limits on roving wiretaps; we protected most libraries from being subject to National Security Letters; we preserved an individual's right to seek counsel and hire an attorney without fearing the FBI's wrath; and we allowed judicial review of the gag orders that accompany Section 215 searches. The compromise is far from perfect. I would have liked to see stronger judicial review of National Security Letters and shorter time limits on sneak and peak searches, among other things." [Speech on the Senate Floor, 2/16/06]

    Now, he argues correctly that he continued to press for further restrictions on executive power, but this is an area where I'm more of an absolutist than my candidate.

    I find it unecessary to support anyone at any level with unthinking and unquestioning loyalty. I will always criticize my guy when I think he has it coming, but that does not diminish my support for him as far and away the Best of the Available.

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    Fair enough Pat, and I still consider us buds, just was taken a bit aback by the lumping of Obama with someone like McCain about Constitutional issues which is how the tenor of your post came across at first.

  • Miles (unverified)
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    No Miles. You're confused. Barr is and has been a consistent advocate for the Bill of Rights

    Pat, I wasn't talking about Barr at all, I was talking about Smith. The talking points that we're all supposed to be using with Smith (and McCain) are that they are far-right ideologues (i.e., crazy right-wing conservatives) who simply put on a moderate face to get votes. Kari's argument undercuts that by suggesting that they ARE moderate, and the crazy conservatives may look for someone else -- like Barr. (BTW, getting the votes of crazy conservatives does not in fact mean Barr is one. I make no judgement on that.)

    Personally, I think Smith is a moderate, at least compared to current GOPers. I'm just pointing out that we now have two conflicting narratives going on.

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    I'm just pointing out that we now have two conflicting narratives going on.

    Guilty as charged on that one Miles.

    To comment on Smith, I'd classify him as a cynical opportunist who is neither conservative nor moderate.

    And why does he get a pass on that John Edwards hair? Edwards didn't........

    Like too many others in both parties, he's really only about reelection, depending primarily on the microscopic attention span of the voters, to have no clue on the positions that he held five minutes ago.

  • Bill Bodden (unverified)
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    Ron Paul believes in the gold standard too, among his peculiarities.

    If I had to choose between someone who wanted a return to the gold standard but who upheld his oath to defend the Constitution and someone who opposed a return to the gold standard but who was prepared to shred the Constitution and nuke Iran (or anyone else for that matter) if it was in his (McCain's) or her (Hillary's) interest, I would be more inclined to risk a return to the gold standard.

    The economy might tank on the gold standard, but it seems to me that making this a police state and nuking Iran and increasing Muslim hostility towards the U.S. could be a lot worse, especially when they control so much of our oil supply and most Americans didn't have enough sense to learn any of the obvius lessons of the 1973 oil scare.

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    Bill, I don't share your optimism about Ron Paul's attitude toward the constitution. Anybody willing to mess with the 14th Amendment for the sake of depriving persons of citizenship, in order to pander to nativism, is a problem for me. He also has long-time ties with neo-confederates and sympathizers with white resistance to the Civil rights movement: look here and here (look for Lew Rockwell quote), and here, for some examples.

    But I don't particularly disagree with your point, abstracted from Ron Paul as an individual.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    "Paul, writing in his independent political newsletter in 1992, reported about unspecified surveys of blacks. 'Opinion polls consistently show that only about 5 percent of blacks have sensible political opinions, i.e. support the free market, individual liberty and the end of welfare and affirmative action,' Paul wrote. Paul continued that politically sensible blacks are outnumbered 'as decent people.' Citing reports that 85 percent of all black men in the District of Columbia are arrested, Paul wrote: 'Given the inefficiencies of what D.C. laughingly calls the "criminal justice system," I think we can safely assume that 95 percent of the black males in that city are semi-criminal or entirely criminal,' Paul said. Paul also wrote that although 'we are constantly told that it is evil to be afraid of black men, it is hardly irrational. Black men commit murders, rapes, robberies, muggings and burglaries all out of proportion to their numbers.'"

  • William (unverified)
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    I'm a bit late to comment here, and I'm sidetracking with this question, but what is the argument against the gold standard. I mean, isn't it a problem that the Federal Reserve is creating money at a pace something like 14% annually? Historically, that will eventually translate to greater inflation than we're seeing now, and what we're seeing now is widely regarded as being quite a bit higher than the "official" numbers. With gold, one doesn't have that problem.

    That having been said, I won't be voting for Barr. I'm a bit too fond of the quote "Libertarianism is just anarchy for rich people."

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    Not to put too fine a point on it, but the argument against the gold standard is that it would cause massive deflation and a depression unlike any since the 1930s.

  • William (unverified)
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    The question I meant to ask is more like, "could you point me to a well-reasoned online argument against the gold standard?" I've looked, and I tend to find arguments on either side to be unconvincing (primarily because both sides have very good counter-points). In spite of this, the establishment comes down in favor of fiat currency, so there may be some understanding that an economics degree confers upon a person that I'm just missing out on.

    As far as the 1930's, it's not uncommon for me to see an article on how today's situation mirrors it in a lot of ways. Corporate share of the tax burden is at an extreme low. Economic stratification between wealthy and poor is at an extreme high. We've accomplished this under a system of fiat currency. Given that, I wonder why people rail against the gold standard so hard. I'm not saying that those indicators are proof we'll get all 1930's on the world, but that I wouldn't be surprised if we had an equally monstrous recession.

    In the final analysis, what matters is how well people are doing. If we have a fixed supply of money, and the economy expands, there's less money to chase each given item, and we have deflation. If our money supply expands with the economy, we should have "no-flation". If our money supply expands much faster than the economy, we have inflation. If our inflation is accompanied by falling prices, we have stagflation. Which is where people can't even afford to buy things in spite of a devalued dollar. Which I think is as bad as deflation. Which is kinda' where we are today. Raise increases don't keep pace with inflation, which is just another way of saying that people are getting salary cuts each year. I wish for "no-flation".

    Ah well, thanks for your good spirit of civility.

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    William, my point of view on this question actually comes from my background as a historian. My understanding from that perspective includes the ideas that the influx of great quantities of gold from the Americas in the 16th and 17th centuries had a considerable role in enabling the more rapid expansion of nascent capitalism in western Europe at the time, and that likewise part of what enabled the global capitalist economy to get out of difficulties reflected in the very deep and protracted depressions that characterized a majority of years from ca. 1873 to the mid-1890s was the large-scale gold discoveries and mining expansion (it was very low-grade ore) of gold first in South Africa and then to a lesser extent in the Klondike.

    Gold is fiat money too. It was a conventional fiat with a lot of tradition behind it for a long time, but it is still arbitrary. The arbitrary restriction of money supply by the quantity of gold circulating in the world economy makes no more intrinsic sense than adopting any other form of money.

    For example, personally I think we should consider adopting the natural commodity based monetary system that was popular in West Africa in the 17th and 18th centuries, and return to the cowrie standard. Why should someone else's sentimental favoritism for gold trump mine for cowries? ;->

    Fairly sustained growth seems to require a bit of inflation to lubricate credit. There's a reason why people running central banks seeking to modulate the economy using monetary policy don't seek zero inflation.

    I didn't say that the gold standard was the cause of the Great Depression, but I do believe it was an obstacle to recovery from it. In fact recovery was only achieved by massive federal debt-based expenditure during World War II, a fiscal policy which from a monetary point of view created a huge amount of what you're calling fiat money, and a great deal of inflation (partly suppressed by laws that drove it into a black market) -- but a different way to look at that was the it made up for the huge quantities of financial wealth destroyed by the depression.

    Wealth in a national economy is much more than gold, and once you get into complex economies with elaborate financial systems based on ownership of securities that represent property stakes in corporate producers and sellers of commodities and services, that wealth depends ultimately on the legitimacy and the authority of the state to uphold the contracts involved in those securities just as much as so-called fiat money does.

  • William (unverified)
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    Chris, thanks for the lengthy reply.

    I'm certainly no historian, but I take it that you'd consider gold's suitability "then" and today to be different. You cite an uptick in gold production as being how gold got us out of economic trouble in the past. IE the ability to rapidly expand the money supply is sometimes just what the doctor ordered. Today, however, we can't count on the added liquidity of such discoveries to bail us out because we've explored most of the promising areas. Do I interpret your meaning correctly?

    I take a different approach than you do. I appreciate the arbitrary nature of assigning wealth to objects (though gold does have quite a bit of intrinsic value today based upon its excellent conductivity and refusal to oxidize). Gold trumps cowries because cowrie production can be ramped up very quickly, whereas gold production is only going to amount to 1 or 2 percent annually of all that's been dug up to date--even if we ramp up production.

    In short, I believe that the ability to snap one's fingers and create money/liquidity out of thin air is not a good thing. The Federal Reserve / national banks / government have used this fact to ward off downturns that by all means should happen. The result has been that we have transferred wealth to bubble after bubble after bubble, and have postponed but not avoided what inevitably must happen--a recession. Because we've been pushing back against recession for quite a few years now, the one we do get (perhaps the one we are in now) will probably be worse than it would otherwise have been.

    You could say that that's not an argument against fiat currency, but is an argument against bad policy. You'd be correct. But show me the government that behaves itself. We've done a lousy job of having our politicians serve us. Each year, they fail to balance the budget and rather than tell us they're raising taxes, they expand the money supply (which devalues the money we regular citizens hold, which amounts to less wealth for us, which is equivalent to a tax increase). A gold standard would force the gov't to try balancing the budget, and to be honest about what we as a nation can and cannot afford.

    All that ranting having been done, I don't want you to get the wrong idea about me. I'm a socialist who doesn't mind appropriately-regulated capitalism. As far as libertarianism goes, I'm much closer to them than to the current crop of Neo-con's we have in most Republican offices. And as far as fiat currency goes (which gold is not--excepting when the government decides to tell us how much it's worth), I'm not opposed to it so long as the gov't doesn't abuse its privilege. Sadly, the government does. And I would argue, if asked to, that inflation is used as a tool to move wealth upstream.

    You wrote: "Fairly sustained growth seems to require a bit of inflation to lubricate credit. There's a reason why people running central banks seeking to modulate the economy using monetary policy don't seek zero inflation."

    I observe: that's what economists mostly say, and given that increases in productivity should mean an increasing standard of living for everybody, I'm cool with that goal. However, I would ask "what is that reason why people running central banks... don't seek zero inflation. Didn't society advance quite rapidly without paper money? Has paper money really smoothed out our upward trajectory? I've read economists who suggest that paper money has done the opposite, but they are in the minority, I'll readily concede.

  • Integr8d (unverified)
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    Paul calls for a return to the gold standard or something comparable -not necessarily gold but some type of sound currency. And certainly something that is looked after by the government and not a group of unaccountable bankers... IMO, the reason people laugh and rail against it so hard is b/c that's what they've seen people in the mainstream media do. From what I can see, the unwashed mass views Paul as 'that crazy guy that believes in the North American Union and wants to go back to the ancient gold standard'. Well, when you put it that way, Paul doesn't sound too appealing. But it's not based on their own research. They only parrot what they've seen on television...

    It's like the nature is to take something you don't understand, have some 'expert' on Fox tell you it's nuts, and from there you form your opinion. I think it's partly Paul's fault for overly explaining things. He's like the nerd of the class. He's done his homework. But he has to watch the jocks run the school. It's too bad he's not a better salesman.

    For most, I'd guess they interpret Paul's statements as meaning that they'd have to carry gold around in their pockets. That sounds unreasonable. But that's not the gist of what he's saying... Most people aren't interested in hearing someone say 'gold standard', on tv, and then hitting up Wiki or whatever. It just gets chalked up as 'something I don't understand' and so 'it's something I don't care about'. And to further reinforce that, Fox tells us it's a crazy idea. Case closed.

    I don't think this extends to us. I think it's part of how the Federal Reserve came about. Most of our politicians are lawyers. Some of them are businesspeople. But I'd guess that few of them are economists. When the ship sunk, in the 1910's, a politician proposed, to the other politicians, the creation of a central bank -on behalf of said bankers. Those other guys all know their jobs are on the line. And politicians, like most people, don't really care how something works. They just want it to work. They were sold on this idea. And off it went -signed into law, over Christmas, when the gov was recessed.

    This 'hands off' approach is something that really bothers me about politicians. When the Iraq thing came up, no one wanted to vote for the declaration of war. They voted to put that responsibility in the president's hands -which were lovingly and wide open. That way, if things went badly, they could all say, "It's not OUR fault." This extends to the Patriot Act. What? Four or five voted against it. The rest were all caught up in this 'everyone has to be a patriot' thing, that they didn't even read it. No one wanted to be the guy that voted against the PATRIOT Act, at a time when that was the buzzword. Now look at where we are with that.

    The sad reality is that the modern politician is just a reflection of the modern citizen. The majority don't care how government works. They just want it to work. When election time rolls around, the only thing on the peoples' minds is what freebie they'll get out of it. The irony is that they don't know that they're going to end up paying for it ten times over -my apologies, if any of you own rent-to-own businesses. But that's the instant gratification, buried-in-credit-cards society for you.

    I'm a resident of southern California and work in the film industry. My family and I are life-long Republicans. In my younger years, I served as a Senate Page for the late Strom Thurmond of South Carolina. I've had a touch-and-go relationship with politics. But after hearing Ron's message we were all reminded, "Oh yeah. THAT's what we're supposed to be supporting." Like many others, we were lead off course, arguably, starting with Bush Sr. But we have our sights set 100% on having a real conservative influencing the directions of this nation. We believe in states rights, human rights, strong national security and a strong currency. My father is a practicing physician in South Carolina. He owns his own practice and gives two nights a week to the local, free clinic. My mother is a medical student -better late than never, eh! And my sister... well... we don't talk about her -shhh.

    Wishing you all good luck and steady work.

    Mike

  • (Show?)

    William,

    No, I'm not saying gold was more suitable then. I'm saying that the gradual evolution of currency has over time revealed that the ultimate issue is trust in exchange, which is reflected since ancient times among other things in the impress of coins with the image of rulers. The value of gold historically has not been related to its intrinsic uses, and if that starts to become a feature of it, it could create problems for a gold standard. Its value has been entirely that it could function as a "common currency" in trade of different scales and across and among societies with very different forms and levels of government, rule of law, physical security and so on. I.e. it was a trusted and understood convention. Even then, its value as such was improved by having the imprimatur (literally) of a strong state backing it, as a guarantee against adulteration, shaving etc.

    Paper money did not create the phenomonon of bubbles or of boom and bust cycles. Those in fact were much more dramatic and long-lasting during the gold standard era than they have been since 1940. My point was not that an uptick in gold got us out of trouble, but that the unreasonable, bad policy constraints imposed by gold got us into trouble. It was those constraints in the face of the Great Depression that ultimately forced not just the U.S. but Britain and all of the great capitalist powers off of the gold standard ca. 1933.

    The Federal Reserve Bank is a pro-business, anti-democratic transmutation of proposals that the People's Party ("the Populists") advanced in the 1890s and early 1900s for what they called a sub-treasury system, as part of a way to approach problems of small farmers and producers being strangled by debt and monopoly, for the farmers particularly transport monopoly. The Democrats under William Jennings Bryan proposed the half-measure of free coinage of silver ("man shall not be crucified on a cross of gold"), i.e. move to a gold & silver standard.

    If inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods," deflation is the other way around, and is what a gold standard produces. Money becomes the scarce commodity, so its price (interest) rises, benefiting the owners of money (capital) and harming those who need to borrow money, as well as inhibiting borrowing for the purposes of starting or expanding enterprises. Above all, a gold standard favors finance capitalists above everyone else.

    I don't believe in balanced budgets as a strict rule, either. If we'd followed that principle consistently after 1930 we'd have lost World War II and the Depression probably would have lasted another decade at least.

    Not exactly sure what sort of socialist you think of yourself as being, but if labor creates wealth, and the actual amount of wealth created expands more rapidly than the quantity of some arbitrary commodity you've assigned to represent it for purposes of general exchange, you've got problems.

  • William (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Chris,

    Thanks for clarifying. Although I saw you considered trust in exchange to be important, I misinterpreted the point of a lot of what you wrote.

    I agree with you that trust in exchange is vital in this whole issue. You point out that, "Even then, its value as such was improved by having the imprimatur (literally) of a strong state backing it, as a guarantee against adulteration, shaving etc." And even then, states would often water down the coinage. Much like today's paper money system.

    "Paper money did not create the phenomonon of bubbles or of boom and bust cycles. Those in fact were much more dramatic and long-lasting during the gold standard era than they have been since 1940."

    Have you read any pro-gold books on the subject? They argue (nicely, in my mind) that most of the boom/bust cycles attributed to gold in early American history were actually due to abuse of the financial system be it playing with paper money or corrupt tweaking of fractional reserve. Do you have a book you favor that's pro-fiat? That's the kind of thing I might pick up. The thing that disturbs me about the pro-gold standard book I read (one of the two, anyway) is that it sees the world as one big socialist conspiracy. Still, facts are facts, and the book treated the boom/bust paper/gold issue in detail. I'd be interested in seeing the same data with a pro-fiat perspective.

    You point out some of the problems of deflation and I don't argue them. If an investor can make money by sitting on his/her haunches more reliably than by starting a business or by lending the money out, then that will be the choice of many. But, I'd ask you, doesn't today's system accomplish the same thing? It's become harder to get home loans today in spite of massive inflation and expansion of the monetary supply. People who do get loans are often given them at outrageous rates. People are reluctant to invest because the market sucks so badly. Much money that was in play a decade ago is now sitting on the sidelines. And weatlh continues to move uphill. This is kind of like what I see you describing the effect of the gold standard as.

    Perhaps reducing investment is not such a bad thing. Perhaps encouraging savings is not a bad thing. (Interestingly, and probably irrelevantly, Islam has the proverb "neither a borrower nor a lender be". I'm only throwing this in because it popped into my head just now and seems to look at things quite differently.)

    Regarding balanced budgets... I'll repeat that expanding the money supply (since the expansion occurs at the top of the socio-economic pyramid) is quite similar to raising taxes. Worse yet, the US is deeply in debt and a very meaningful portion of our tax dollar goes to paying interest on that debt. Which is basically money we're throwing away because our representatives chose not to balance the budget. I strongly agree with you that a certain amount of liquidity is good, and that there are benefits to not having to balance the budget, but... I'm sure you'll agree that the Federal Gov't has abused this privilege of not having to balance the budget. And isn't it also true that states (as opposed to the Feds) are largely living within the constraint of a balanced budget? I'm not opposed to fiat currency if things can be kept in line--it's just that they haven't been and I can't see them becoming so.

    As a socialist, I agree very strongly with the statement that "labor creates wealth" (though the harnessing of energy and the trend towards automation suggests that, eventually, labor need not be done by man). I don't think that your closing statement following the labor-creates-wealth segment is a fair critique. Allow me to reverse it. If labor creates wealth, but the actual amount of wealth created expands much less rapidly than the quantity of some arbitrary commodity (paper or perhaps ones and zeros in a computer) that you've assigned to represent it for purposes of general exchange, you've got problems.

    The bottom line is that people matter. The ruling class doesn't play nice with the gold standard, and they don't play nice with our current system. Which system is more ripe for exploitation? In my ideal world, we have a system where labor is properly valued, and paper, or gold, or whatever, isn't used to siphon off wealth from the have-nots. My opinion is that a gold standard (see Ron Paul's version of it--bimetallic systems are no good) comes closer to this ideal than today's paper system, and that both fall short of ideal.

    You've been amazingly patient and kind in your responses, and I greatly appreciate that. I have had a good time reading what you've written, and I'd definitely appreciate a book reference from you. Your well-reasoned discourse tells me that whatever book you suggest would be a decent place for me to dig deeper.

  • William (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Chris,

    Thanks for clarifying. Although I saw you considered trust in exchange to be important, I misinterpreted the point of a lot of what you wrote.

    I agree with you that trust in exchange is vital in this whole issue. You point out that, "Even then, its value as such was improved by having the imprimatur (literally) of a strong state backing it, as a guarantee against adulteration, shaving etc." And even then, states would often water down the coinage. Much like today's paper money system.

    "Paper money did not create the phenomonon of bubbles or of boom and bust cycles. Those in fact were much more dramatic and long-lasting during the gold standard era than they have been since 1940."

    Have you read any pro-gold books on the subject? They argue (nicely, in my mind) that most of the boom/bust cycles attributed to gold in early American history were actually due to abuse of the financial system be it playing with paper money or corrupt tweaking of fractional reserve. Do you have a book you favor that's pro-fiat? That's the kind of thing I might pick up. The thing that disturbs me about the pro-gold standard book I read (one of the two, anyway) is that it sees the world as one big socialist conspiracy. Still, facts are facts, and the book treated the boom/bust paper/gold issue in detail. I'd be interested in seeing the same data with a pro-fiat perspective.

    You point out some of the problems of deflation and I don't argue them. If an investor can make money by sitting on his/her haunches more reliably than by starting a business or by lending the money out, then that will be the choice of many. But, I'd ask you, doesn't today's system accomplish the same thing? It's become harder to get home loans today in spite of massive inflation and expansion of the monetary supply. People who do get loans are often given them at outrageous rates. People are reluctant to invest because the market sucks so badly. Much money that was in play a decade ago is now sitting on the sidelines. And weatlh continues to move uphill. This is kind of like what I see you describing the effect of the gold standard as.

    Perhaps reducing investment is not such a bad thing. Perhaps encouraging savings is not a bad thing. (Interestingly, and probably irrelevantly, Islam has the proverb "neither a borrower nor a lender be". I'm only throwing this in because it popped into my head just now and seems to look at things quite differently.)

    Regarding balanced budgets... I'll repeat that expanding the money supply (since the expansion occurs at the top of the socio-economic pyramid) is quite similar to raising taxes. Worse yet, the US is deeply in debt and a very meaningful portion of our tax dollar goes to paying interest on that debt. Which is basically money we're throwing away because our representatives chose not to balance the budget. I strongly agree with you that a certain amount of liquidity is good, and that there are benefits to not having to balance the budget, but... I'm sure you'll agree that the Federal Gov't has abused this privilege of not having to balance the budget. And isn't it also true that states (as opposed to the Feds) are largely living within the constraint of a balanced budget? I'm not opposed to fiat currency if things can be kept in line--it's just that they haven't been and I can't see them becoming so.

    As a socialist, I agree very strongly with the statement that "labor creates wealth" (though the harnessing of energy and the trend towards automation suggests that, eventually, labor need not be done by man). I don't think that your closing statement following the labor-creates-wealth segment is fair. Allow me to reverse it. If labor creates wealth, but the actual amount of wealth created expands much less rapidly than the quantity of some arbitrary commodity (paper or ones and zeros on a computer) that you've assigned to represent it for purposes of general exchange, you've got problems.

    The bottom line is that people matter. The ruling class doesn't play nice with the gold standard, and they don't play nice with our current system. Which system is more ripe for exploitation? In my ideal world, we have a system where labor is properly valued, and paper, or gold, or whatever, isn't used to siphon off wealth from the have-nots. My opinion is that a gold standard (see Ron Paul's version of it--bimetallic systems are no good) comes closer to this ideal than today's paper system, and that both fall short of ideal.

    You've been amazingly patient and kind in your responses, and I greatly appreciate that. I have had a good time reading what you've written, and I'd definitely appreciate a book reference from you. Your well-reasoned discourse tells me that whatever book you suggest would be a decent place for me to dig deeper.

  • William (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Ooops. Sorry for double-posting! Technical difficulties...

    Integr8d, I agree with your sentiments that many people are just parroting what they've seen on TV or read. Blue Oregon has a lot of reasoned discourse, though (and a lot of noise, too, but that's another thing). I can't just assume that commenters here are speaking out of ignorance. And as we can see in this thread, Chris sure isn't ignorant!

    Regarding Ron Paul, he's to conservatives as Dennis Kucinich is to liberals. Both are intolerable to the ruling class, and both have a lot of good ideas. I respect Ron Paul tremendously in spite of disagreement on quite a few subjects. I find Kucinich and Paul to be a breath of fresh air.

    Here's to the day when conservatives and liberals unite and throw out all the bums from office.

  • (Show?)

    William, let me return the compliment about your own patience. I've been enjoying the discussion too.

    If I left the impression that I think gold caused older boom & bust cycles, I should correct that, you're right that they didn't. Where I think a gold standard may have played a role is in protracting and deepening the down part of the cycle. Reading documents from the 1830s about the shortage of money obstructing efforts to get businesses going in the context of studying labor and working class history (this was very much related to the decline of the older apprentice-journeyman-master artisan system) influences my views, as does studying the long downs and short ups between ca. 1873-1896.

    But you're quite right to look at financial speculation for causes, in many instances, I think. The question in my mind though is whether currency is the main issue to look at. In fact the period we are looking at is characterized not only by the emergence of paper currency but of paper "securities" of all sorts, primarily stocks and bonds, as well as the evolution of stocks in relation to the evolution of legal forms of corporations and limitations of liability.

    This discussion has piqued my curiosity about a number of things, though I don't know if I'll have time to pursue them. Unfortunately I can't recommend a "pro-fiat" book per se because I've come to this stuff sideways, by virtue of having studied the history of Africa and thus entered into trying to understand non-monetized or incompletely monetized economies, not characterized by generalized exchange, as well as what happened when specific such economies got increasingly involved with the world capitalist economy. My thinking has been strongly influenced by what was called the "substantivist" school of economic anthropology, in debates mainly in the 1960s (I read them later). One book you might find interesting would be Marshall Sahlins' Stone Age Economics, which typologizes exchange systems in an intresting way. Karl Polanyi's writings, including The Great Transformation would have relevance. Harder to lay hands on and tricky because of translation issues are the writings of the French Marxist Anthropologist Maurice Godelier.

    If I were to set out to find myself a pro-fiat book, I'd probably start with Milton Friedman, actually, as the guru of monetary over fiscal policy as means to regulate the economy. But what of his specifically? I don't know.

    Fair point about inflation and labor. And you certainly are right about the burden of debt service. But that also raising some interesting political points. Republican "borrow and spend" economic policies favor their big financial interest constituencies, while also pursuing an ideological agenda of crowding out subtantive public spending. But if we were to impose a gold standard and a balanced budget requirement today, after 8 years of aggressively pro-finance capital, anti-worker policies by Bush, we'd be leaving the big lenders in the catbird seat.

  • William (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Chris, thanks for the pointers. The prehistoric book sounds like a fascinating read. I don't expect a reply from you because we've carried this thread on for a long time. But... some things I'm sure you'll be interested in:

    Milton Friedman is a dirty word in Chile and Argentina. So many of his recommendations were exported to there and resulted in much suffering. I imagine some of his works would be quite educational now that you mention him. Just 'cause the man had some awful ideas doesn't mean he's without merit, after all. :)

    Interestingly enough, Ron Paul agrees with you that it would be foolish to jump immediately back on to a gold standard. I can't recall all of his objections, but... there are so many problems with the transition. There's a long-enduring truth of relevance here; the rich start out rich and stay rich while the poor start out poor and stay poor. More and more, the American dream of upward mobility is becoming a myth. The rich will manage to stay on top somehow.

    I was having a conversation with a co-worker the other day about this very subject; we've been watching commodity prices and have been pondering the roadsigns along Route America'sDecline. His statement about the difference between fiat currency and the gold standard was very insightful I thought. He said, with only a small bit of humor intended, that the current system isn't actually fiat--the money is backed by oil rather than gold. While not absolutely true, and the backing takes a different form, I think there's a lot of truth in that statement. Fascinating perspective.

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