That's the risk Merkley took, closing negative. I wonder if he thought Steve was out of money?

Regular endorsements in the news may not mean a whole lot, but Governor Kitzhaber on your screen saying Novick is the ONLY one, while a host of papers statewide scroll by with their support, will be effective. Especially with a contrasted message that essentially boils down to "sniffs bait, swims away."

Another good parry by the Novick campaign. If Jeff runs Believe this week while Kitzhaber is running, that won't be good for Jeff at all IMO.

Hey, the Forest Grove paper just hopped on the bandwagon. Is that 8-3 now among general circulation papers?

n a year when Republican candidates – even established senators such as Smith – will face vigorous challenges from energized Democrats, either Merkley or Novick could mount a respectable campaign in the fall. But our belief is that Novick would best represent Oregon on Capitol Hill. There’s no question that the feisty Novick, who stands 4-feet-9, has a mechanical hook on the end of his left arm, would break most anyone’s mold. He already has proved remarkably resilient in this campaign. Much of the Democratic establishment is backing Merkley, who comes from a more traditional political background and has mounted a disappointingly negative campaign. But it was Novick who first announced he would take on Smith – he didn’t wait for the Democratic Party to anoint him, and he is running now without the advantage of party support. Philosophically, Novick and Merkley aren’t all that different, although Merkley tends toward the pragmatism that comes from having worked within the give and take of a legislative environment. Merkley has his own strengths: his background in world affairs and low-income housing would suit him well for two of the big issues facing the nation. But it is Novick who has best demonstrated the passion needed not only to run a strong race against Smith in November, but also to stand tall for this state in Washington, D.C.

Sorry, meant to highlight this part:

"much of the Democratic establishment is backing Merkley, who comes from a more traditional political background and has mounted a disappointingly negative campaign."

What a great ad. More serious / less untraditional than the earlier ones, but still true to who Steve is and why he's the best candidate.

How great to have Kitzhaber voice his support so fully. You're right, TJ -- of all the individual endorsements a candidate for this job could get, Kitz is cleasrly the pick of the litter.

Yep another great one for Novick. This thing is looking more like another Lefty Childred's Crusade every day.

Not looking forward to seeing Republican 527s running and endless loop of Dr. No's endorsement, should the Dems have the misfortune of nominating Steve in the primary.

If Novick really wants to seal his own fate, maybe he can get Cindy Sheehan on board.

"If Novick really wants to seal his own fate, maybe he can get Cindy Sheehan on board."

Kitzhaber just MIGHT be a little more popular--with Republicans and NAVs as well as Democrats--than Cindy. Just a hunch.

Love the montage. It really seems to drive home that the campaign has had a coherent theme from start to finish and hasn't been knocked "off message."

It's a strong capstone to the end of a strong primary campaign. Can't wait to see what Steve is going to cook up for the general.

Not looking forward to seeing Republican 527s running and endless loop of Dr. No's endorsement, should the Dems have the misfortune of nominating Steve in the primary.

What, you think Smith's supporters are going to be afraid of going after Merkley any more than they are Novick? That Smith wouldn't blandly claim that Merkley's in bed with almost every union in the state in an attempt to bring socialism to Oregon and the United States (like he did when he was campaigning for George W. Bush against John Kerry 4 yers ago)? That Merkley wants to kill unborn babies because he has the endorsement of Planned Parenthood?

Smith's going to attack whoever is running against him with whatever ammunition he thinks he has. But he and his campaign are going to be choosing what they see as either Merkley's or Novick's weaknesses, which won't necessarily be what other people see as strikes against them.

What, you think Smith's supporters are going to be afraid of going after Merkley any more than they are Novick?

From what I've seen, Kitzhaber is probably more popular across party lines than any other politician in the state with the possible exception of DeFazio.

But let's assume for a minute that a two-term governor who was elected by nearly 2-1 in his second term really is a drag on the ticket. Are you seriously trying to make the case that Novick's latest ad hurts him more than the following:

"Jeff Merkley tried to raise taxes on Oregonians 417 number of times. He even voted for the largest tax increase in Oregon history. Now he wants us to send him to Washington? Jeff Merkley, Wrong on taxes. Wrong for Oregon. For a change... I'm Gordon Smith and I approve this message."

Pat, you trying to say that running Kitzhaber's endorsement is going to hurt Novick more than he ad I just wrote?

"Newsflash--there are people old enough to vote this year who don't remember Kitzhaber as Governor."

Come on, the very youngest would have been 12 or 13. And I didn't hear this excuse about Barbara Roberts.

"I cannot think of another Oregon Democrat who would be as valuable as endorsement as Kitzhaber."

I'd wager only Tom McCall, Les Schwab or the Santa at Meier and Frank would be as valuable, Dem OR GOP. And those guys are dead!

:)

LT, I'm not sure I understood what your point was in addressing Sal and myself. Neither of us referred to Kitzhaber as "Dr. No."

I was responding to Pat's claim that Kitzhaber's endorsement would harm Novick and that Smith would use it against him in the general election by stating the -- I think almost certain probability -- that Smith is going to attack whoever gets the nomination, on whatever grounds he thinks will work.

People who don't remember Kitzhaber as governor (and that would include anyone who moved here in the last five or six years as well as some younger voters and people who just weren't paying attention) aren't going to be swayed by Kitzhaber's endorsement, true. But then they probably wouldn't be overly affected by negative ads referencing him, either.

I don't know what the specifics of the Louisiana race attack ads were like -- I didn't see any of them -- but there are a lot of reasons negative ads may not work. I doubt they're going to vanish into the sunset.

Pat, you trying to say that running Kitzhaber's endorsement is going to hurt Novick more than he ad I just wrote?

No I'm not Sal.

Are you writing ads for Smith now, or is this one that the Independent Party candidate will have in the hopper?

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To Tom and the rest of the Kitz-hearters, I'll just say that Kitz is an excellent endorser for Novick because up close and personal, they are both arrogant and dismissive of views not their own, and contemptuous of any who hold those views.

Not a story I heard or a gratuitous personal attack, just personal observations of these guys up close from one who tends not to swoon when politicians are in the room, however rock solid their credentials with any particular group.

Many other politicians with whom I disagree on a variety of issues are vastly superior to these two guys. I've been in opposition to Rosenbaum, Greenlick, Nolan, Governor Roberts, and half the sitting legislature on a variety of issues yet I continue to respect the hell out of 'em for the simplest of human reasons. They are able to disagree without disrespecting.

If and when the public gets a whiff of this overt sanctimonious disdain that Novick and his endorser Kitzhaber wear like badges of honor, they will run not walk toward Smith.

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Oh,yeah. I'm a Democrat and I've been referring to him as Dr. No for years. May be in poor taste (or whatever) but it pales beside the disrespect that he's exibited toward me and anyone else who fails to fall in line behind his received wisdom.

"I've been in opposition to Rosenbaum, Greenlick, Nolan, Governor Roberts, and half the sitting legislature on a variety of issues yet I continue to respect the hell out of 'em for the simplest of human reasons. They are able to disagree without disrespecting."

You must be joking. Greenlick and Nolan are responsible for the ugliest, most classless and sad personal attacks in this race. And they're elected officials, which is doubly pathetic. Not only was their piece littered with inaccuracy, it was the lowest form of political speech--the character smear. Those two are damaged goods now, as far as I'm concerned.

I've been in opposition to Rosenbaum, Greenlick, Nolan, Governor Roberts, and half the sitting legislature on a variety of issues yet I continue to respect the hell out of 'em for the simplest of human reasons. They are able to disagree without disrespecting.

Might have to scratch Greenlick and Nolan off that list.

hahahahaha TJ, great minds think alike!

I'm sure there will be some variance in the considered greatness, but yeah. :)

Maybe it helps your analysis a little bit if you take note that Steve never mentions Jeff by name in his ads, including this one (as well as the notorious ad that KGW ran once by mistake).

In this ad there is a brief visual cue calling out the Merkley attack ad -- just in csae anyone is wondering -- but it is quickly disposed of so the positive message can begin.

Oops, I take one piece of that back. Merkley's name appears for about a half second on the red banner across the upper left corner of the frame. The words are "Merkley ad attacks Steve." But neither Steve nor Gov. Kitzhaber mention the name in the audio.

Every poll I've ever seen says Barbara Roberts is more popular among Oregon Democrats.

I love the woman, personally, I mean I adore her, but an awful lot of people who live here now have no recollection of her time in office, or even who she is.

Also, of the three most recent governors Kitzhaber is the only one with a national reputation, which can't hurt.

One of the frustrations with primaries is how they paint caricatures to magnify relatively modest differences. Jeff Merkley isn't a left coast Lieberman clone nor does Novick suffer from undiagnosed tourettes.

Jeff is a talent and had a helluva session in 2007. It was historic. Nothing this campaign season changes what was accomplished on a host of important issues.

I'm supporting Novick because I think he'll run the most aggressive, unrelenting campaign to defeat Gordon Smith. I wouldn't support him if I didn't think he'd be our best shot. I also have full confidence in his ability to pour himself into his work and charm the socks off his colleagues once elected. That's the Novick I know from a decade of working with him in the trenches of progressive politics. Novick could be one of the greats.

Here's some of what Steve has to say on Veterans' Issues from his Web site:

Taking Care of Our Veterans Millions of Americans have honorably served our country in Iraq, Afghanistan and other points across the globe – trying to protect us from harm and make the world a better place. But this Administration has let them down – first dispatching them to a wretchedly conceived and poorly planned war and now extending tours of duty and sending members to serve a second, third or even fourth tour in Iraq. But regardless of the wisdom of this war, we must never turn our back on the men and women who have served so bravely and sacrificed so much. It is my pledge that as Oregon’s next U.S. Senator I will fight every day on behalf of our service members and their families. It is the least I can do to repay the debt we all owe them. Provide for the Health and Recovery of our Wounded Warriors and their Families There are nearly two million uninsured veterans in America and that number is rising rapidly, according to a recent study by Harvard Medical School. Delays and difficulties in treatment at Walter Reed and other Veterans’ Administration (VA) facilities have been a national embarrassment in recent years. I pledge to fight relentlessly to get our heroes the care they need. Specifically, we must: * Eliminate the waiting periods, bureaucratic delays and restrictions on eligibility this Administration has used to deny our wounded warriors access to VA services. * Dramatically expand treatment and rehabilitation services for veterans with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Thousands of men and women are coming home from Iraq and Afghanistan with TBI, with symptoms sometimes not appearing for months or years. The VA must have the staff and services to take care of these veterans. * Ensure that mental health services, including treatment for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are available for all in need – especially those veterans returning for Iraq and Afghanistan. All service members being sent into combat should have access to mental health screenings and counseling opportunities. * Recent expansion of the TRICARE program to provide health coverage to National Guard and Reserves members is an important first step, but insurance is useful only if providers will accept it. The TRICARE reimbursements rates for mental health services and several other areas should be reevaluated to ensure that these members and their families can obtain care in their communities. * Expand the number of disability claims workers at the VA and standardize their training. This will reduce the substantial backlog in returning veterans seeking a disability claim to support themselves and their family. * Adopt all of the recommendations of the Shalala/Dole Commission on Care for America’s Returning Wounded Warriors including simplifying the Defense Department and VA disability systems and expanding assistance for families providing home care to injured soldiers. Reduce the Retirement Age for Those Serving in the National Guard and Reserves Members of the National Guard and Reserve services are increasingly asked to perform as active-duty soldiers, accepting long, and sometimes repeat, deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Repeated, extended activations make it more difficult to sustain a full civilian career and will impede Reservists' ability to build a full civilian retirement, yet they are not eligible for military retirement benefits until they turn 60. In contrast, many federal employees are eligible to retire at 57. The Congress should lower the retirement age for National Guard and Reserves members who have served a full 20 years – at minimum bringing it into parity with the Federal Employees Retirement System.

LT, thanks for telling us Novick supporters what we need to say if Steve wins the primary. Please note that one of the most prominent around here just said it before the primary is over. Let me add that he speaks for many of us.

I wonder if you have any views on what the Merkley supporters should say if he wins the primary, as the surge-theorists assure us he will?

"The whole debate where Novick supporters say no one had the right to object to a single word Steve said at Sunriver or elsewhere about the obscure 2003 resolution, but we should think Nolan and Greenlick were unacceptably nasty to Steve is something which strikes some people as the sort of argument among school kids get into which is mainly namecalling."

Then you're not conducting a very deep or honest analysis. The only people who actually DID namecall, were Nolan and Greenlick.