Maps: U.S. Senate race

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

I produced a couple of maps that illustrate the results of the U.S. Senate race. First, a regular map - and then, a cartogram that adjusts the size of each Oregon county based on population.

Also, I colored each county based on the strength of each candidates' win in that county.

Here's the maps. I'll leave the analysis to people less hungover than me.

Merkleymap

Merkleycartogram

(Note: The results drawn from the 10:10 a.m. update at OregonVotes.org, except Lake County - which isn't available there, but the Oregonian reported. Go figure.)

[Full disclosure: My firm built the website for Jeff Merkley, but I speak only for myself.]

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    I'm not sure that cartogram actually reveals much, except that vast areas of the state have very few people.

    But the top map is fascinating. Thanks for putting it together.

  • verasoie (unverified)
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    You might have to adjust that map, as with 95% reporting on Oregonlive, Novick won Multnomah by "only" 12% and Clatsop and Benton by less than 1% each, whereas Merkley won each southern and southwestern county by over 15%.

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    Verasoie... Not sure what you mean. I've got the colors right for the results you cite. (Maybe I need to boost the contrast to make it clear?)

  • Jennie Storris (unverified)
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    Just goes to show you that even in Oregon, dump alot of out-of-state funding on a candidate and you can buy any election you want.

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    Jeff... Well, that's kind of the point, isn't it?

    Frankly, it makes the point that Novick's Multnomah County performance was big and important. The regular map makes Multnomah look tiny.

    Actually, if I had a cartogram that was adjusted by Democratic registration - rather than overall population - that effect would be even stronger.

  • verasoie (unverified)
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    Kari,

    Okay, mea culpa. It is difficult to accurately discern the colors, but I assumed that because you have a category that says "Novick +15%" that meant that such a county actually existed, and that the darkest county was that color (i.e. Multnomah), because such "blowout" wins do exist for Merkley (i.e. all the southern and SW counties I mention). My mistake.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Great map, Kari. But yes, the contrast might be better.

  • James X. (unverified)
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    Seriously, what's up with Lake? The Oregonian gives Merkley 57% and Novick 4%, while SOS won't report it at all. But it's only 300+ votes overall, so not a big story.

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    Yay! On the cartogram, Kari. It makes so much more intuitive sense to those of us who believe in one person, one vote, instead of one acre, one vote.

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    Your comment is rather off-the-mark Jenni.

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    Kari--

    As a data monger, I love this stuff. Thanks. And, BTW, I think at this point "we are one," and the disclaimer can be dropped. Post-election analysis should have no enemies. Or how about a disclaimer that "I did the web site for the the Democrat in this race!"

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    What did you use to make the population-weighted map, Kari? When I did maps for the 2004 elections I made them all by hand and it was a pain in the ass.

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    That's "Jennie" and not "Jenni."

  • Eric Berg (unverified)
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    Kari didn't sound too hungover on Thom Hartman's show this morning.

    Speaking of election party drinking, what was up with no local beer at Sam Adam's thingy? Just PBR, Amstel Light and Corona. Not the best way to for the mayor-elect to support the local economy.

    For those who haven't seen themthis website has red-purple-blue cartograms of the 2004 presidential election.

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    "Your comment is rather off-the-mark Jenni."

    So 70% of Merkley's money in 2008 through April didn't come from Non-Oregonians? DSCC didn't put $400,000 into the race to help Merkley?

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    I like the cartogram. I think someone should make a blank version of it for use in future discussions.

    Let's all put our bickering aside and help Jeff Merkley beat Gordon Smith!

  • Ro (unverified)
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    I'm starting to get the feeling that the DPO is always backing the 'establishment' candidates...This wasn't just the DSCC pumping wads of cash into our election, was it?

    This is bitterly disappointing, and I was hardly engaged in the campaign beyond recognizing the obvious: Novick is a liberal. Was Merkley really more inherently appealing to rural and small town voters than Novick, from Cottage Grove? No, but the DPO and its DSCC overlords can throw more money at those votes. This is a perversion of Dean's 50 state strategy, pushing a moderate out in front of a liberal in a very liberal state. Isn't one moderate senator (Wyden) enough for Oregon?

    Let's NOT put our bickering aside. For the presidential race, sure, but we need to get our ducks in a row at the state level -- we can't let big business keep perverting our elections here in Oregon.

    No more out of state money in Oregon primary races!

  • William Neuhauser (unverified)
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    Thanks for the cartogram, Kari! It is good to remind ourselves we live in a democracy, not a "geocracy", except for oddities like the electoral college, which should never-the-less be depicted with a cartogram reflecting electoral college votes:-)

  • Bert Lowry (unverified)
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    The DPO didn't give any money or institutional support to either candidate. The DPO does not participate in primaries. Really.

    I know you're disappointed that Novick lost. He's a smart, charismatic, driven guy. He'll be back. Don't poison his future chances by attacking the people who will be his donors and volunteers.

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    Ro,

    If you want to debate campaign finance reform, fine. Write a column. But the rules were what they were, we have a candidate, there's a three way race in which the Independent Party candidate probably takes away more from Merkley than Smith, though how much from either I don't know. So we need to stop bickering about the primary from the point of view of beating Smith.

    That's what Steve Novick asked us to do last night, saying among other things that Jeff will make a "great senator." Whatever one might say about the campaign. I intend to do as he asks.

    Or are you so pissed off about the out-of-state money that you'll abstain, either literally or by voting for Frohnmayer?

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    "That's what Steve Novick asked us to do last night, saying among other things that Jeff will make a "great senator." "

    One of the great things about Steve's supporters is that they don't worry about the times when they disagree with him. :)

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    "The DPO didn't give any money or institutional support to either candidate. The DPO does not participate in primaries. Really."

    They got themselves involved in this one, although not with money...

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    Posted by: Jenni Simonis | May 21, 2008 2:59:52 PM That's "Jennie" and not "Jenni."

    Good point about my typo. See, on BlueOreogn I see the name 'Jennie' and my fingers type your name automatically as an homage to the Dean days.

    ;-)

  • Harry (unverified)
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    "Novick is a liberal."

    "Isn't one moderate senator (Wyden) enough for Oregon?"

    Nice cartogram, Kari.

    If the above is CW, which I believe that it is, then why did Jeff (the moderate) get the Blue color and Steve (the liberal) get the Red color?

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    Not a problem. I just saw your response and was like "Huh? Is someone posting as me?" And then I realized there was a "Jennie" on here as well.

    : )

    I'm all signed up to help the Merkley campaign.

  • James X. (unverified)
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    I would have to disagree with calling Wyden and Merkley moderates. There's no perfect system of comparing the ideologies of senators, but the National Journal's vote ratings is the most commonly cited. Wyden, according to their scoring model, is the 12th most liberal person in the Senate. More so on foreign policy and social policy than on economic policy. Perhaps that's what was meant, though, that he's a liberal on social policy and foreign policy, but an economic moderate.

  • Harry (unverified)
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    So that's the list that ranks Obama as the most liberal Senator, above Kennedy, Clinton, Kerry, and all the others. Interesting...

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    Seems like a notable fun fact that Wheeler County had 0% for either Dem.

    Is that possible?

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    "National Journal's vote ratings is the most commonly cited."

    Keith Poole's ordered Senate Rankings are the best I've found. They use every single substantive roll call vote--about 500-600 per session.

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    If the above is CW, which I believe that it is, then why did Jeff (the moderate) get the Blue color and Steve (the liberal) get the Red color?

    Purple and Orange.

    And here I thought I picked two colors that weren't red and blue. Maybe I'll try green and yellow next time.

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    I liked the purple and orange. Yellow and green can be hard on the eye sometimes.

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