Punditology 2008: Oregon Primary Edition!
Kari Chisholm
Well, we're just a few days away from the 2008 Oregon Primary. (Are you ready to be done yet? I know I am.)
As usual, I've organized the Punditology Challenge - a little no-money betting pool amongst the chattering classes of activists, lobbyists, consultants, media folks, and even a few candidates and electeds. And once again, I'll invite BlueOregon readers to join in the fun.
This year, ya gotta pick the winners of 26 races around the state. Deadline is midnight Sunday, and folks who enter will find out on Monday night what the conventional wisdom is. (Which is usually right, except when it's wrong - and then it's spectacularly wrong.)
Remember: you're trying to pick the winners, not simply pick who you wish would win. This won't affect the outcome of any campaigns, so there's no sense spinning it. Rather, if you pick 'em right - you'll be hailed as a genius, a pundit par excellence, a prognosticator for the ages...
In 2006, our primary winner was then-Metro Councilor Brian Newman. In the general, we had a three-way tie between OLCV head honcho Jonathan Poisner, State Senator Richard Devlin, and attorney Jack Isselmann. Earlier this year, both of our presidential punditology challenges - for January and on Super Tuesday - were won by blogger and law student Jonathan Singer.
Tough competition. So, dive on in.
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May 14, '08
you are going to take a few more losses Kari. I know you were trying to drum up support in the straw poll and it didn't go so well for your clients...here goes the real thing buddy.
May 14, '08
OREGON MOTHER's FOR HILLARY CLINTON.
Obama's Dark Circle of frineds say he don't share the values of the Great people of Oregon.
Hillary Clinton is our Choice.
May 14, '08
The working men and women of Oregon support HILLARY CLINTON for their democratic nominee.
Obama lacks greatly in leadership skills.
His lack of effort to ease economical hardships for not only the people of Oregon, but for every hard working american shows that all he cares about is winning. At least Hillary Clinton shows fight for the people.
May 14, '08
Oregon Needs HRC.
The Democratic Party, Needs HRC.
Hillary Clinton is the BEST WOMEN for the job. She is a LEADER.
May 14, '08
Man: You sit here, dear.
Wife: All right. Man: Morning! Waitress: Morning! Man: Well, what've you got? Waitress: Well, there's egg and bacon; egg sausage and bacon; egg and spam; egg bacon and spam; egg bacon sausage and spam; spam bacon sausage and spam; spam egg spam spam bacon and spam; spam sausage spam spam bacon spam tomato and spam; Vikings: Spam spam spam spam... Waitress: ...spam spam spam egg and spam; spam spam spam spam spam spam baked beans spam spam spam... Vikings: Spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Waitress: ...or Lobster Thermidor a Crevette with a mornay sauce served in a Provencale manner with shallots and aubergines garnished with truffle pate, brandy and with a fried egg on top and spam. Wife: Have you got anything without spam? Waitress: Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it. Wife: I don't want ANY spam! Man: Why can't she have egg bacon spam and sausage? Wife: THAT'S got spam in it! Man: Hasn't got as much spam in it as spam egg sausage and spam, has it? Vikings: Spam spam spam spam... (Crescendo through next few lines...) Wife: Could you do the egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam then? Waitress: Urgghh! Wife: What do you mean 'Urgghh'? I don't like spam! Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Waitress: Shut up! Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Waitress: Shut up! (Vikings stop) Bloody Vikings! You can't have egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam. Wife: I don't like spam! Man: Sshh, dear, don't cause a fuss. I'll have your spam. I love it. I'm having spam spam spam spam spam spam spam beaked beans spam spam spam and spam! Vikings: Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Waitress: Shut up!! Baked beans are off. Man: Well could I have her spam instead of the baked beans then? Waitress: You mean spam spam spam spam spam spam... (but it is too late and the Vikings drown her words) Vikings: (Singing elaborately...) Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam. Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Spam spam spam spam!
May 14, '08
Sorry to all you old ladies, HRC is gonna get thumped badly here in Oregon. Portland Tribune has him up by 20 points. Better luck next time.
May 14, '08
BOHICA, I think that you get the prize for most well-thought-out post thus far. :)
May 14, '08
Spam for breakfast.. ROFLMAO..!!!! That's a kick in the pants! Very clever post there!
May 14, '08
While I'm at it...
"Obama's Dark Circle of frineds say he don't share the values of the Great people of Oregon."
Ordinarily, I wouldn't cry latent racism at the mere utterance of a word that's simply a synonym for the color black... But in this case, I am hard-pressed to figure out a reasonable context for "Dark Circle of friends" [sic].
Mary Lou, what the heck are you talking about? Also, don't forget to pick up some grammar later... you're running low.
May 14, '08
"Dark Circle of Friends"? Sounds like a lame allusion to Harry Potter-esque literature. Hillary Clinton=Harry Potter, Barack Obama=Lord Voldemort.
The "he don't share the values of the Great people of Oregon" bit is cute.
May 14, '08
Sorry to all you old ladies, HRC is gonna get thumped badly here in Oregon. Portland Tribune has him up by 20 points. Better luck next time.
There's a photo on the front page of The O on Wednesday showing four people doing an HRC phone bank. One is a woman whom you might call a senior citizen, but the others are young women probably in the late teens or early twenties. The "old ladies" bit is both lame and incorrect. I happen to support Obama, but the Clinton supporters I know include men and women of all ages.
May 14, '08
You guys don't get it. When talking about uppity blacks its appropriate to use "he don't" instead of "he doesn't".
May 14, '08
Well regardless of whatever anecdotal evidence you have, or whatever picture the Oregonian uses on their website according to several polls the only age demographic shes winning in this state is voters over 55. I also know some Hilary supporters that aren't in that age group, but they aren't the ones that make up her consistent base.
8:13 a.m.
May 14, '08
You guys don't get it. When talking about uppity blacks its appropriate to use "he don't" instead of "he doesn't".
Man, gotta love the racism around here. I guess Obama is just reaching too high for himself - surely he should be out working some fields or something, right? [/snark]
May 14, '08
well, we sure don't want that boy's finger near the button, now do we?!?!
::actual quote from a white male politician/off::
May 14, '08
Back to Hillary, and Hillary is back! Obama will take Oregon, but by less than 10%. A moral victory for Hillary, but it's a little late for moral victories!
12:08 p.m.
May 14, '08
These incessant, contentless Hillary postings have to be coming from spambots-whether automated by computer or by humans.
There's no way every single Hillary supporter in Oregon is incapable of writing correct English sentences. It seems to me the bot postings are crowding out the real people who support Hillary and might otherwise post here.
What I want to know is does the Clinton campaign really believe people will vote for her based on that kind of thing? Do they really believe BlueOregon readers will vote for her because of posts like these?
It's not like she needs to boost her name recognition so what is the point? Personally, I find it kind of creepy.
"Zombies for Clinton." Now there's a campaign strategy.
All we want to do is eat your brains. We're not unreasonable, I mean, no ones going to eat your eyes...We're at an impasse here, maybe we should compromise--if you open up the door, we'll all come inside and eat your brains. Jonathan Coulton
May 19, '08
Hillary is trying to keep her slacking campaign alive, and hopes a win in Oregon and Kentucky will revive it. She told the people of Orgeon, “don’t count me out yet;” however, Hillary is just happy to get ANY press about her these days. It occured to me that Hillary is similar to another celebrity known by many Oregonians–Tonya Harding. Yes, Hillary is the Tonya Harding of this political race. Tough as nails, extremely competetive, and not beneath attempting to “better the odds” by beating up on the favorite to win. There is even some physical and behavioral resemblences–that steely glare and denial of any criminal involvement in what she does. I guess if Hillary does not win the nomination, that she can always get a job in the boxing ring!
May 19, '08
Hillary is acting like a spoiled, stubborn brat. By staying in the race like she is, in the face of what eventually is, she is giving a lot of what she represents a bad name and makes her look like a too extremely uptight person for her own good. She is making herself look bad and it may come back to bite everyone later.
If she has any class, she would go down gracefully, not shamelessly arrogant and stubborn.
May 19, '08
Eric and the rest of Oregon Obama supporters. The Oregon nation of citizens strikes me as a bit naive. Isolation in
the big West is a social quality that most Americans don't enjoy esp. Eastern's. However this can cause a lack of street smarts that is associated with a homogenized and overcrowded society (Eastern US less Calif and soon to be Arizona). Simply put you are being shilled by an imposter called Barrick Obama. I am a fourth generation Floridian We live with hundreds of Obama's. But you must learn like we have learned. Give it three years after Obama is President. Then come on down to Florida. I'm usu. at the Fox Sherron Bar 6030 S. Dixie Hwy. South Miami ask for Paddy -- we can a few drinks and get some laughs.