BlueOregon Straw Poll Results!
A week ago, we announced the first-ever BlueOregon Straw Poll.
Before we get to the results, some notes:
- We had 653 valid ballots, though quite a few people didn't vote in every contest.
- Our participants came from 179 different zip codes, and from 33 of Oregon's 36 counties.
- There's definitely a strong Portland-area bias, however, as 70% of our votes were from Multnomah, Clackamas, or Washington Counties.
And finally, please remember: This is not an endorsement from BlueOregon. It's a snapshot of the opinions of those who chose to participate. Several campaigns worked hard to "turn out" participants, while others declined to participate. (And at least one used the word "boycott".)
Without further ado...
| % | votes | President of the United States |
| 75.3% | 488 | Barack Obama |
| 19.0% | 123 | Hillary Clinton |
| 5.7% | 37 | (still undecided) |
| United States Senate | ||
| 47.3% | 308 | Steve Novick |
| 45.0% | 293 | Jeff Merkley |
| 2.5% | 16 | Candy Neville |
| 0.9% | 6 | (someone else) |
| 4.3% | 28 | (still undecided) |
| United States Congress, 1st District | ||
| 74.2% | 397 | David Wu |
| 15.3% | 82 | Will Hobbs |
| 1.3% | 7 | Mark Welyczko |
| 9.2% | 49 | (still undecided) |
| United States Congress, 3rd District | ||
| 94.5% | 586 | Earl Blumenauer |
| 1.8% | 11 | John Sweeney |
| 1.8% | 11 | Joe Walsh |
| 1.9% | 12 | (still undecided) |
| United States Congress, 5th District | ||
| 63.1% | 362 | Kurt Schrader |
| 18.1% | 104 | Steve Marks |
| 2.1% | 12 | (someone else) |
| 16.7% | 96 | (still undecided) |
| Secretary of State | ||
| 66.3% | 431 | Kate Brown |
| 18.6% | 121 | Vicki Walker |
| 9.8% | 64 | Rick Metsger |
| 0.3% | 2 | Paul Damian Wells |
| 4.9% | 32 | (still undecided) |
| Attorney General | ||
| 50.2% | 324 | John Kroger |
| 42.5% | 274 | Greg Macpherson |
| 7.3% | 47 | (still undecided) |
State legislative and local races on the jump...
| State Senate, 23rd District (NE Portland) | ||
| 86.4% | 463 | Jackie Dingfelder |
| 8.0% | 43 | Sean Cruz |
| 5.6% | 30 | (still undecided) |
| State House, 38th District (Lake Oswego & SW Portland) | ||
| 53.5% | 197 | Chris Garrett |
| 26.1% | 96 | Linda Brown |
| 20.4% | 75 | (still undecided) |
| State House, 42nd District (SE Portland) | ||
| 43.8% | 202 | Jules Kopel-Bailey |
| 29.3% | 135 | Regan Gray |
| 8.0% | 37 | Teddy Keizer |
| 3.0% | 14 | Gordon Hillesland |
| 15.8% | 73 | (still undecided) |
| State House, 45th District (NE Portland) | ||
| 54.6% | 244 | Cyreena Boston |
| 20.8% | 93 | Michael Dembrow |
| 8.7% | 39 | Jon Coney |
| 15.9% | 71 | (still undecided) |
| State House, 49th District (East Multnomah County) | ||
| 66.0% | 223 | Nick Kahl |
| 13.0% | 44 | Barbara Kyle |
| 21.0% | 71 | (still undecided) |
| Mayor of Eugene | ||
| 81.5% | 300 | Kitty Piercy |
| 12.5% | 46 | Jim Torrey |
| 0.5% | 2 | (someone else) |
| 5.4% | 20 | (still undecided) |
| Mayor of Portland | ||
| 75.7% | 476 | Sam Adams |
| 16.9% | 106 | Sho Dozono |
| 2.9% | 18 | (someone else) |
| 4.6% | 29 | (still undecided) |
| Portland City Council, Seat #1 | ||
| 32.7% | 183 | Amanda Fritz |
| 23.4% | 131 | Jeff Bissonnette |
| 8.8% | 49 | Charles Lewis |
| 8.8% | 49 | Chris Smith |
| 7.5% | 42 | John Branam |
| 3.2% | 18 | Mike Fahey |
| 15.7% | 88 | (still undecided) |
| Portland City Council, Seat #2 | ||
| 54.2% | 302 | Nick Fish |
| 33.0% | 184 | Jim Middaugh |
| 2.7% | 15 | (someone else) |
| 10.1% | 56 | (still undecided) |
| Lane County Commission, North Seat | ||
| 30.5% | 51 | Rob Handy |
| 29.9% | 50 | Bobby Green |
| 1.2% | 2 | Steve Sherbina |
| 9.6% | 16 | Nadia Sindi |
| 28.7% | 48 | (still undecided) |
| Multnomah County Commission, District 3 | ||
| 25.4% | 118 | Judy Shiprack |
| 20.5% | 95 | Rob Milesnick |
| 10.3% | 48 | Mike Delman |
| 1.9% | 9 | Roy Burkett |
| 1.9% | 9 | Ron McCarty |
| 1.5% | 7 | Bruce Barclay |
| 38.4% | 178 | (still undecided) |
Discuss.
|
May 6, 2008 |
blueoregon admin | Comments (84 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: local mom | May 6, 2008 8:42:12 AM
Yeah - and all you need is cross-country airfare to attend the "free" concert! And money for lodging, food, incidentals....
Posted by: trishka | May 6, 2008 8:45:34 AM
unless there are folks who live on the east coast who want to support steve. not unheard of.
Posted by: trishka | May 6, 2008 8:46:38 AM
myself, i'm holding out for REM to come out & do a benefit concert here in oregon this summer. HEE!
ps: good thing blueoregon isn't moveon.org, or else it would have to endorse novick! i love the smell of irony in the morning.
Posted by: Missy | May 6, 2008 8:48:35 AM
I actually find these results a little worrying. I love reading BlueOregon and would like to think that we well-represent the Democrats in our state, but the Obama - Clinton results are really out-of-whack, aren't they?
Unless something totally unexpected happens, everyone I know (who isn't working for Clinton) assumes that Obama will win pretty big in Oregon, but 75 - 19% makes us seem a little out of touch, doesn't it?
On a brighter note - Go Steve!
Posted by: Alan | May 6, 2008 9:10:54 AM
Obama win big? A month ago yes. Election day (days) Obama wins by less than 10 pts. Not an overwhelming crush. The BlueOregon results are astounding in many ways. These results should not in any way be construed as mirroring what will actually happen. Interesting? Yes. Reflective of real results; Not a chance.
Posted by: Blake C Hickman | May 6, 2008 9:14:24 AM
I'm pretty shocked at how close the Senate primary is. I think thats probably going to be the most interesting race to watch on 5/20, especially county by county.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | May 6, 2008 9:26:39 AM
Very interesting results. Three really jump out at me. I'm suprised Merkley is doing as well among the netreaders as he is--based on the comment streams, you'd think Novick would win in a landslide. I expected Jim Middaugh to be leading among our readers. That he is only polling at 33% here could signal trouble. But D42 is the biggest surprise, though--I expected a more even distribution. Jules is definitely performing well among BlueO readers.
I expected Kroger/Macpherson to be close, but probably with the numbers inverted. Could this be an early warning sign in that campaign?
And Missy, I don't find the Obama results at all suprising, if you buy the demographics-as-law argument: Obama voters are typically more wealthy, more educated, and less religious than Hillary voters. Guess who that describes to a T--BlueO readers.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 9:30:31 AM
Posted by: trishka | May 6, 2008 8:45:34 AMunless there are folks who live on the east coast who want to support steve. not unheard of.
I'm confused. I thought that the Novick line is that out-of-state = bad.
By the way, I'm a fellow REM fan and they are going to be very near Oregon this summer as part of the Sasquatch Festival in central Washington.
The other band also in the festival which I'd LOVE to see is the Flaming Lips. Unfortunately they don't play on the same night and there's no way I can afford to see both nights. :-(
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 9:34:54 AM
Good observation, Missy. I'd love to see Obama win by that kind of a margin but I don't believe for a second that it'll be anywhere close to that big of a margin. Double digits, perhaps. But by 56 points? No way. Well... unless she drops out before then. But that still wouldn't address the lack of representation in this Blue Oregon survey.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 6, 2008 9:37:45 AM
What?! This is an outrage!
Listen up, people, you're supposed to all be blindly following what I tell you! I am the svengali and puppetmaster of BlueOregon! You must do exactly as I say! Support everyone I tell you to support! Don't you people ever listen! My clients are the only candidates that matter! ARRRRRRRRGGHHHHH!
*end snark*
Actually, I'm quite pleased to see that BlueOregon's readers aren't mindless sheep.
So much for all those critics that whine endlessly about how our "bias" is going to effect the outcome of the election -- when it won't even effect the outcome of a straw poll right here....
Thank you for participating!
Posted by: 18yearoldwithanopinion | May 6, 2008 9:40:58 AM
This straw poll spells trouble for Novick. Novick, look at the Survey USA poll, gets the vast majority of his support from very liberal white voters which matchs the readership of Blueoregon to a t. The fact that Jeff Merkley was able to do so well among Novicks best crowd is really good for him.
Posted by: 18yearoldwithanopinion | May 6, 2008 9:43:06 AM
Also interesting to note after all the posts and comments from people like Torridjoe, Kari, Kevin, and Charlie Burr there are still 47 Blueoregon readers who are undecided in the US senate race.
Posted by: Stephanie V | May 6, 2008 9:47:28 AM
It's pretty meaningless, but I'd always rather win than lose. GO STEVE!
Posted by: LT | May 6, 2008 9:48:11 AM
"there are still 47 Blueoregon readers who are undecided in the US senate race. "
Esp. since there have been comments here of the
"HOW DARE anyone claim to be undecided when everyone is supposed to have chosen up sides or be suspected of being a closet supporter because no intelligent Democrat could possibly be undecided" comments here.
"end snark"
Posted by: trishka | May 6, 2008 9:49:12 AM
kevin, out-of-state isn't necessarily bad, if the donor is an individual. out-of-state is bad if it is some PAC or a national level function of the democratic party (DSCC i'm looking at you).
if jeff merkley has some friends back in washington DC, from his days of working there, who want to give him $100 for his campaign, i think that's great.
what i don't think is great is the DSCC giving him $100,000.
are you okay with that distinction, or is it too subtle for you?
Posted by: I expect the opposite | May 6, 2008 9:53:36 AM
54.6% 244 Cyreena Boston
20.8% 93 Michael Dembrow
Reason why the Blue Oregon straw poll is just a snap shot of Blue Oregon bloggers.
For people of Blue Oregon
By people of Blue Oregon
Posted by: Nick Wirth | May 6, 2008 9:53:48 AM
Interesting- The majority results exactly match my ballot for every election I will be voting in (with the exception of the City Council races for which I have yet to decide)...
Posted by: Dylan | May 6, 2008 10:04:39 AM
I am not at all surprised that Obama won big. Obama does very well with the activists of the party and those really paying attention. That is in large part why he had done exceedingly well in the caucuses. Blue Oregon doesn't represent an accurate cross-section of Oregon's Democratic Party because we are the cream of the crop (not to toot our own horn). I also agree with every single result of this poll (for the big races anyways), except I do lean Vicki Walker.
Posted by: colin maloney | May 6, 2008 10:06:02 AM
The Presidential race and the Secretary of State race seem a bit lopsided. I expect Metsger and Walker will do much better in the larger primary. The 5th district race seems a bit "off" too. Probably the result of having the ability to direct people to the poll who were supporters.
Also, it'd be interesting if people only voted in races they were actually voting in. I don't think I voted in races in the straw poll that I won't be voting in in real life.
Posted by: ben rivers | May 6, 2008 10:09:45 AM
I expected Kroger/Macpherson to be close, but probably with the numbers inverted. Could this be an early warning sign in that campaign?
I would think neither camp is taking this that seriously...again, I would think...I may be wrong...
Posted by: Charlie Burr | May 6, 2008 10:19:24 AM
The 37 undecideds in the presidential primary is an indication of my ongoing failure to secure Stephanie V.'s vote for our next president, Barack Obama.
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 10:33:29 AM
"Very interesting results. Three really jump out at me. I'm suprised Merkley is doing as well among the netreaders as he is--based on the comment streams, you'd think Novick would win in a landslide."
I think the comments are fairly evenly divided, actually. And in any case, Blue Oregon IS the most prominent home of pro-Merkley, anti-Novick sentiment, so wouldn't you think he'd do better in the straw poll?
As I recall, the BlueO audience tends to skew older, whiter and more inside baseball than the electorate. As I pointed out when the latest SUSA arrived, if there is an influx of young voters, advantage Steve. In fact, the national Politicker is blaming the DSCC's souring over Merkley on the popularity of Obama and the continuing "matterness" of the primary here.
Basically, what they're saying is that Merkley has already lost. If he squeaks out a win, he will be viewed as a damaged candidate who surely can't beat Smith if he has this much trouble with Novick (and runs another campaign that fails to inspire on a broader level).
A Novick win or big win, they can work with.
A Merkley big win, they can also probably work with--but that's not likely to happen.
A Merkley squeaker kills his appeal as a national candidate.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | May 6, 2008 10:50:39 AM
I think the comments are fairly evenly divided, actually. And in any case, Blue Oregon IS the most prominent home of pro-Merkley, anti-Novick sentiment, so wouldn't you think he'd do better in the straw poll?
TJ, why do you insist on this absurd line? It's pure bullshit. You, Stephanie, and company have consistently made the argument that we aren't balanced, which is worth discussing among reasonable people. But jumping to the "most prominent home of pro-Merkley, anti-Novick sentiment" line is, as I'm sure you well know, partisan hackery.
If this were the home of "anti-Novick sentiment" you could site more than a couple post by Kari to back it up.
Posted by: Ashlander | May 6, 2008 10:54:30 AM
I feel better about my candidate (Merkley) getting money from the Dem party now, in the era of Howard Dean and a 50-state strategy, than I would have felt when Terry McAuliffe was in charge.
I want to beat Smith!!
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 10:56:00 AM
Occam's Razor points to the DSCC having downgraded Oregon as a direct reaction to the early April SUSA poll showing Novick ahead - a thinly veiled indication that they have no intention of backing him should he win the Primary. Obama's been polling well in Oregon for months now.
The only significant Senate corrolation around the time of the DSCC downgrade was that SUSA poll. There are a number of additional reasons why Obama's polling here doesn't make sense as the reason for the downgrade, but the timing in relation to that poll is by far the strongest.
Given all the bad-mouthing Novick and his supporters have been doing for months now at the DSCC's expense, the DSCC not liking Novick shouldn't surprise anyone. But I honestly don't think it's about whether they like or dislike him. They simply don't see him as having a credible chance against Smith. I honestly don't either. I mean no offense by that. It's just my honest opinion.
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 11:01:28 AM
"Obama's been polling well in Oregon for months now. "
It has nothing to do with polling, but registrations and the fact that the primary will be competitive and thus high turnout, which is bad for Merkley.
Also, I think you're using fairly outdated info if you think the "DSCC doesn't like Novick." You know they've changed national political directors since last spring, right?
You can chat with Occam all you like, I was citing the DC punditry, who have a bit louder of a voice.
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 11:04:47 AM
"But jumping to the "most prominent home of pro-Merkley, anti-Novick sentiment" line is, as I'm sure you well know, partisan hackery."
Can you name a more prominent blog in Oregon that has more consistently published anti-Novick material, and ignored so much anti-Merkley material in favor of diaries about his latest rest stop?
Did I say it was the editorial policy? No. I said it was the most prominent place to find pro-Merkley, anti-Novick stories. If you think that's wrong, which place is it, in actuality?
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 11:06:16 AM
"If this were the home of "anti-Novick sentiment" you could site more than a couple post by Kari to back it up. "
How about the widely panned "jeopardy" video, for a start?
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 11:15:53 AM
SUSA released the poll showing Novick ahead on 04/07/08
The very next day, 04/08/08, the DSCC downgraded the race to 2nd tier.
Posted by: LT | May 6, 2008 11:26:02 AM
"There's definitely a strong Portland-area bias, however, as 70% of our votes were from Multnomah, Clackamas, or Washington Counties. "
Kate Brown doing well with the home town crowd. Why is that not surprising?
Posted by: Lee Coleman | May 6, 2008 11:42:59 AM
Multnomah County Commission, District 3
1.9% 9 Roy Burkett
NINE Blue Oregon posters support the pro-OCA candidate? WTF is THAT all about?
Also notable is the fact that his ideological opposite, an equally unacceptable candidate, running for Portland City Council seat #2, is apparently the fave of 15 of us.
What can these people be thinking?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 6, 2008 11:49:55 AM
Lee -- There was no requirement that people be BlueOregon commenters (or even Democrats). I certainly saw plenty of participant names of people I know to be Republican lobbyists and what not. Not many, but some.
Posted by: Jamais Vu | May 6, 2008 11:58:28 AM
Very few surprises here for someone who follows the comments on BlueOregon. Well, OK, I was surprised the AG race is so close, but otherwise this fits with the posts.
I don't think anyone thinks the actual vote will turn out this way--the Obama/Clinton numbers alone are completely implausible given other polling data--but I think they are a good proxy of the sentiment of politically active Internet users. I work in IT in PDX and these numbers--including the Obama landslide--are very indicative of the water-cooler conversations at my firm.
This poll looks like great stuff for a poli-sci MA thesis: "Materials toward Quantification of Proxies for Paradigm Shifts in the post-Web 2.0 Votersphere." Are you up for sharing the data, Kari? ; )
Posted by: Miles | May 6, 2008 12:00:55 PM
They [the DSCC] simply don't see him as having a credible chance against Smith. I honestly don't either.
Kevin, I'm genuinely curious how you reconcile the following: If Merkley is such a strong candidate against Smith, why is he struggling to beat Novick? And if Novick is such a weak candidate against Smith, why is he giving Merkley such a run for the DSCC's money?
I think TJ's analysis is mostly right on. Whether fair or not, the game of political expectations is bound to hurt Merkley if he only pulls out a narrow win, whereas Novick will look like a giant-slayer if he pulls out a narrow win. But TJ is wrong to assume the DSCC will step up with cash to support Novick. Since they didn't get their first tier candidate and their second tier candidate is running a weak campaign, they are most likely writing off the race altogether. When looking at national priorities, it's not an unreasonable decision for them to make.
After Novick wins the primary, he's going to have to spend months slowly chipping away at Smith's natural lead. After the convention in August, if he's within striking distance, the DSCC will come around. But it's going to be on Novick to do the heavy lifting. Fortunately, I think he's up to it.
Posted by: Dan Wilson | May 6, 2008 12:04:23 PM
Pretty bold for Blue Oregon to have a straw pool. If the results do not matach what the actual results are two weeks from now. It pretty much proves to light blue and dark blue Oregonians that Blue Oregon is not relevant.
Good test of market capture Kari.
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 12:05:59 PM
"But TJ is wrong to assume the DSCC will step up with cash to support Novick."
I think they'll be late, but they'll be there. They didn't get on the Webb bandwagon until the week before the primary.
Novick's high national profile after winning the primary--and the help of the national netroots, which has sat out this race because they see two good progressives--will push the DSCC to re-evaluate, is my belief. They don't hold the wrist with the electoral pulse in it very tightly, but eventually they do hear it.
Posted by: torridjoe | May 6, 2008 12:11:57 PM
Sorry, should have put this in with the other response:
"Since they didn't get their first tier candidate and their second tier candidate is running a weak campaign, they are most likely writing off the race altogether."
Well, they certainly haven't done so at this point. They simply moved it out of the top four or five--which is where it had been all along. It's been 6th-8th almost the entire cycle.
According to Schumer OR is out of their top 5, but they're targeting 18 seats and it's at the top of the next tier. (And of course that's now; wait until you see the first post primary general heat test vs Smith).
Posted by: Robert G. Gourley | May 6, 2008 12:14:22 PM
I voted as often as I had time - and all my votes were correctly cast.
Posted by: Stephanie V | May 6, 2008 12:14:53 PM
There are at least four Oregonians I know personally with access to the ear of Chuck Schumer who will be giving him the gospel on Steve the minute he wins the primary. Chuck hasn't responded well so far to the concept that he picked the wrong horse in this race (and he's been hearing that lately), but if the Oregon electorate shows him something, he's not stupid. He'll respond in an appropriate way. I do agree that he will wait to see how well Steve gets his footing in a general election campaign, but Steve will shine in that setting. I'm not too worried about national support.
Posted by: Karol | May 6, 2008 12:16:21 PM
Jeff Alworth - we are more wealthy? Love it...if it was true :)
Posted by: Tom Civiletti | May 6, 2008 12:27:39 PM
Ya, Jeff, you might want to reassess the wealth demographics of BO readers.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | May 6, 2008 12:29:36 PM
"Materials toward Quantification of Proxies for Paradigm Shifts in the post-Web 2.0 Votersphere."
Obviously Elitist.
I don't imagine that any of us think that this poll says anything at all about the general election, but it does say a lot about Blue Oregon readers and commenters.
It's all good........
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | May 6, 2008 12:31:18 PM
If the results do not matach what the actual results are two weeks from now. It pretty much proves to light blue and dark blue Oregonians that Blue Oregon is not relevant.
We have 5,000 readers a day of self-selected liberals. If the results of our straw poll match the results of the primary, I'd fall out of my chair.
Karol, the "we" here includes our latte liberal friends!
Posted by: Dylan | May 6, 2008 12:34:24 PM
Pretty bold for Blue Oregon to have a straw pool. If the results do not matach what the actual results are two weeks from now. It pretty much proves to light blue and dark blue Oregonians that Blue Oregon is not relevant.
So the only way to be relevant is to reflect the masses. I don't follow such tortured logic.
As I indicated in my prior post, I am proud of the fact that I take part in an online community that does not reflect the average joe, but instead reflects the interests and preferences of an engaged, thoughtful, and dynamic group.
Thanks for the straw poll Kari!
Posted by: Stephanie V | May 6, 2008 12:34:36 PM
interesting- The majority results exactly match my ballot for every election I will be voting in (with the exception of the City Council races for which I have yet to decide)...
Nick, when you say "majority results" are you saying that only those who got more than 50% align with your ballot? Just trying to get some clarity here.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 12:34:55 PM
Miles,
The polls have largely reflected name ID. Novick ran TV ads in what... January/February? Merkley didn't start until mid-April and the very next poll showed Merkley gaining traction at a significantly stronger rate than Novick. If that trend continues, and I expect it to, Novick is toast.
If Merkley is such a strong candidate against Smith, why is he struggling to beat Novick?
Struggling? Compare the two most recent polls. Compare the endorsements of entities which actually give material and/or manpower support well after the news of the endorsement has faded.
And if Novick is such a weak candidate against Smith, why is he giving Merkley such a run for the DSCC's money?
What "run for the DSCC's money" would that be? The day after the April 7 poll the DSCC downgraded the race.
Posted by: Stephanie V | May 6, 2008 12:39:03 PM
The 37 undecideds in the presidential primary is an indication of my ongoing failure to secure Stephanie V.'s vote for our next president, Barack Obama.
There's still time -- I haven't voted yet, Charlie. But I need to vote in the next week because I have to be in San Francisco May 14-17 and I want Steve to get my vote even if my plane crashes.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 12:40:18 PM
Chuck hasn't responded well so far to the concept that he picked the wrong horse in this race
That's exactly what the calculation was last year, what it was in the intervening months and what it was the day the DSCC downgraded the race - it's all about the horserace.
The DSCC is playing for keeps. They have no time to play games of favorites. The stakes are simply too high for that.
There is no question but that the DSCC doesn't see Novick as viable. And they are veterans of hardball political campaigns who know what it takes to win.
Note: The presence of any individual above does not imply an endorsement by BlueOregon. The selection of faces shown is done by Facebook. Visit BlueOregon on Facebook.
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Posted by: Bridgie | May 6, 2008 8:37:06 AM
Whoa, I hadn't heard this: apparently Pearl Jam is setting aside special tickets to benefit Steve Novick.