The Money Chase, May Update: Secretary of State

Here's the latest look at the money chase for the Secretary of State race.

Last month, Kate Brown led her nearest competitor, Rick Metsger, by $271k. This month, her lead is up to $337k - in part due to a big $15k donation from the Victory Fund on 4/2. Vicki Walker is up to $114k, and Rick Dancer is headed to November with $24k.

Brown's daily pace (over 90 days) has once again jumped - from $1741/day to $2628/day. Metsger has moved up strong from $1044/day to $1420/day. Walker is up from $279/day to $451/day. Rick Dancer continues to languish at just $272/day.

Here's the box scores and the charts:

last updated4-30-20084-25-20084-27-20084-29-2008
2007 starting balance$95,771$40,178$11,678$0
current total$574,165$237,092$114,154$24,485
cash contributions72519122233
average contribution$643$988$447$734
daily pace (last 90)$2,628$1,420$450$272
daily pace (last 30)$3,898$2,299$778$678


Technical notes on the jump...

We retrieved this data from ORESTAR on May 1, 2008. Because campaigns can choose to delay their reporting up to 7 days, some recent data isn't available yet. The "daily pace" is based on the last 30 or 90 days for which we do have data. Our chart starts in July 2007 because most campaigns didn't raise money during the legislative session. The "average contribution" is based on actual cash contributions since January 1, 2007 - while the "current total" includes in-kind contributions, sold items, interest income, and the starting balance. Also, some campaigns lump together under-$100 contributions into a single line item - so the number of contributions may be slightly understated and the average contribution slightly overstated. In order to measure campaign strength, these numbers include the initial cash-on-hand on January 1, 2007 plus all funds raised since then.

Why not look at cash-on-hand? Because it doesn't lend itself to an apples-to-apples view. The goal is to provide a snapshot view that compares the financial strength of the statewide campaigns and legislative caucuses. Does a low cash-on-hand mean that a campaign is failing to raise money? Or does it mean that they're spending money on big-ticket items like polling, direct mail, and television? We assume that campaigns spend money in whatever way they think is most strategically smart. So, looking at the total funds raised since January 1, 2007 (plus the opening balance that day) is the best snapshot of overall financial strength.

  • JHL (unverified)

    Of course Kate Brown's fundraising has jumped: Even though in the Willamette Week interview she clearly said that "Folks are concerned about out-of-state interests," she doesn't seem to mind being the one that "folks" are concerned about. Not only did she get that $15,000 from DC earlier this month, but she got another $10,000 in the last few days! Heck, they've put her on an installment plan!

    It'd be interesting to see this broken down by in-state vs out-of-state... especially since Kate Brown is the one who keeps on raising the issue of how bad out-of-state contributions are and how due to her work, ORESTAR will start highlighting those contributions in 2009. (Good thing it doesn't start until 2009, because otherwise most of her money would be highlighted!)

  • (Show?)

    I like Kate Brown personally, but I think that it is no coincidence that in a week when Willy Week endorses Walker, Steve Duin writes a column on the need for CFR, criticizing Brown for her opposition to contribution limits, and that very day, the OEA cuts a check for $25,000 to Brown's committee, bringing their total to $50,000.

    As Metsger noted, "This is how they buy elections".

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