Will Oregon be the state that puts Obama over the top?
Kari Chisholm
Writing at DailyKos, the big blogger himself Markos writes this:
Hillary, don't drop out! (yet)If Clinton were to drop out this week, we'd face an uncomfortable situation in West Virginia, with Clinton likely crushing Obama. That would look terrible for the presumptive nominee.
Better than that would be to garner enough superdelegate commitments this week, so that Oregon can push Obama past 2,024. That way, it isn't the supers who clinch it for Obama, but actual voters.
Wow. We might actually wind up mattering after all!
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connect with blueoregon
9:55 p.m.
May 6, '08
That would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for this Oregonian. Our children are already asking which Obama house parties would welcome children. My selfish needs of joy aside, I think Markos' comments have merit. Let voters, not SD's, have the final say.
May 6, '08
Maybe it's over! Clinton has canceled all public events tomorrow. She's broke! It's over. And it's a virtual tie in IN, with final vote counting for days still. Obama likely to win it now.
10:02 p.m.
May 6, '08
Bill R- You beat me to the punch. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. FYI: Josh Marshall of Talkingpointsmemo.com has the blip.
May 6, '08
I heard she still has an event on her schedule, a fund raiser in Washington.
What is going to happen with her events in Medford and Oregon? Maybe Josh or Chris can chime in here.
Although they are now saying she won Indiana, by something like 1.8%, it will be very tough for her to continue, with a straight face at least.
Time for the party to start coming together. Josh, Chris, group hug?
You guys made some good arguments, but now you would have to either win 85% of the remaining delegates, get superdelegates to flock to Hillary in unheard of numbers, or throw out the rules that Michigan and Florida violated. No offense, but I don't see any of those scenarios happening.
10:46 p.m.
May 6, '08
I'm glad I voted already--when I colored in that little oval, we DID still matter.
I think we're either irrelevant or another brick in the wall. My guess is she's either out in the next week or going through Puerto Rico. But I also thought she'd win Indiana by ten.
May 6, '08
Even the MYDD magical thinkers are starting to collapse in on themselves. They know that Obama only needs something like 35 more pledged delegates to win a majority of them and that FL and MI are but a fading dream.
Still, I will admit that given that something I have always liked to see is the following said by an election night anchor "And we now project Oregon will go for the Democratic candidate, giving them 271 electoral votes and making them the next President of the United States!." This would be close to that. We shall see.
May 6, '08
I'm betting Clinton doesn't bow out entirely- she's got a huge load of campaign debt to pay off, and she can still negotiate with the Party for positions for her supporters and for herself. She's got a lot of behind the scenes work ahead of her, which is why she's canceled appearances tomorrow. Her camp has to focus on that strategy- to at least come out ahead in some way with her loss of the nomination.
I'd much prefer to see the delegate count be decided by the voters, and if we can get to Oregon as the final push for Obama, that's great for us, and great that the voters are the ones to make the decision, rather than having superdelegates deciding for everyone.
OTOH, if the Clinton camp is really still in fantasyland, they may opt to play games with the Party's Rules/ByLaws committee on 5/31, trying to force, coerce or threaten their way to the nomination. It just depends on how far Clinton will go to secure the nomination for herself at the expense of the entire party.
May 6, '08
Just out, a sign of coming events:
"Gen. Wes Clark calls on Hillary to concede" http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-wesley-clark-reportedly-called.html
May 7, '08
One more reason Hillary will concede very soon. She's flat broke! And has no shot now at the nomination!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/new-hillary-clinton-loan_n_100492.html
May 7, '08
You ask whether Oregon be the state that put Obama over the top. Sorry, but the answer is no.
North Carolina put him over the top. The race is no longer in doubt, barring something that you'd see in the Godfather.
May 7, '08
Let me add to my last post that it is high time that Clinton supporters pull the plug on their candidate's campaign. At this point, we know the nominees, but we don't know the outcome. To work for Hillary is truly tantamount to working for McCain.
If you love Hillary and you're indifferent between McCain and Obama, then sure ... keep the fight going and hope that Obama will stumble. But otherwise, you better help the party come together ASAP. McCain has been getting a free ride for way too long, and he'll continue to get one as long as Clinton is in the race.
May 7, '08
I marked my ballot for Obama, put it in the mail and now that thrill is over. Let us now kick the crap out of the republicans!
May 7, '08
I'm a little confused about what putting him over the top means if you're going to use NC as the factor, Daniel. I thought it meant literally making the 2024 finish line, and I thought that by May 20 Obama would have secured enough superdelegates that the outcome in Oregon would put him over the 2024 finish line. My hope is that that is what will happen, making a "nuclear option" meeting of the rules committee moot. I wonder how many ballots have been returned. Does anyone know? I love our system--no last minute influx of dittoheads is going to affect the outcome.
May 7, '08
No, NC nor will other state put Obama over the top. The Super Delegates will decide the nominee. The DNC needs to scrap this shame couched as "democracy" and let all the votes count, in every state. Then we can have a nominee who was elected an not selected.
Don't worry, I am not holding my breath. Too much money and power wrapped up in being a SD.
May 7, '08
This is a call out to all Obama volunteers to keep up your important work in canvasing and calling. Until we hit 2024, our primary work is not done.
But dang it if all this good news doesn't put some smiles on our faces and skips in our steps!
May 7, '08
It's about time a black man is seriously considered for POTUS. 1 out of 4 black males are in white ran Prisons. The brothers need to be let out and whites need to pay. And they can start by paying for slavery.
Go OBAMA!
May 7, '08
Right now Hillary's staying in is about her legacy and her ego. As of this morning her campaign is talking about pursuing the "white" vote. So I guess we know what that legacy will be, the female George Wallace. She has a moment right now to concede and bring healing to the party. Keeping up this fight and these tactics guarantees she will be deeper in debt, and more diminished than ever in the future of the party.
8:09 a.m.
May 7, '08
Jerome is a troll. Please, people, don't feed the trolls.
May 7, '08
I'm hoping a Clinton supporter will take this comment seriously and respond.
We keep hearing Clinton's campaign staff, and pundits, claiming that Obama just can't win white working-class voters, and worrying out loud that those voters will defect to McBush in November.
We also all know that Obama does extremely well with African-American voters.
But has Clinton--have the pundits--been worrying out loud that African-American voters will defect to McBush in November?
NO.
Sadly, but oh so typically, Hillary Clinton, her staff, and the punditocracy are simply assuming that African-American voters will just do their duty to the Democratic Party in November.
Talk about lack of respect....
Fact is, Obama and Clinton are verry clsoe together in terms of policy. But in terms of politics? NO WAY. And here's the biggest difference IMHO: Clinton is playing the Mark Penn "microtrends" game: cobble together a 50% + 1 coalition for this election. Obama is not using appeals targeted at specific demographic groups, but is trying to attract voters of all races and classes.
May 7, '08
Hillary Clinton will win Oregon and she will be our next president. Hillary is the smartes and humble candidate for Oregon.
Hillary, Hillary, Hillary
Bravo for Hillary.
Alberto
May 7, '08
Go Hillary
Oregon will vote for Hillary.
Latinos for Hillary in Oregon
Alberto
May 7, '08
This was a great night for Obama. His nomination appears inevitable now. The justification for Hillary not conceding is getting weaker and weaker.
Given the apparent split in the party, is it more likely now that Hillary could be a viable VP for Obama, in an effort to maximize the party's energy and unity? I for one would like to see our two strongest candidates on the ticket, rather than a strategically-selected Floridian or Ohioan. And, I'd like to see an olive branch extended to those who dug into their Hillary trenches.
May 7, '08
The longer Hillary goes on without conceding, the less leverage she has. This morning her campaign was all about pursuing the "white" vote out there. That is a sure bet to deepen the bitterness. I know it did with me. Let her bury herself in debt,(She's now running her campaign from her own money.) and let her destroy her legacy in the party. Malignant narcissism forever!
May 7, '08
Hillary will be much more effective in the senate than as VP.
9:09 a.m.
May 7, '08
Obama is already over the top and has been for some time.
The virtual tie in Indiana closed the deal. Clinton's Indiana victory speech early last evening was very conciliatory and very summative about her run and campaign--listening to it, it sounded like a concession speech to me, and a gracious one, thankfully.
She may stay in through the end of May in order to jockey for position, but she's playing for the VP spot at this point, which ought to be hers for the asking if she decides to stop sabotaging the party by gaming the system (superdelegates, Florida, Michigan) to win against the popular vote and pledged delegate count. It's time to play nice and support Obama as our candidate to be the next president. Clinton seems to agree; hopefully.
May 7, '08
my money's on bill richardson for the veep slot, actually.
May 7, '08
Obama would be smarter to not let her anywhere near the VP slot unless she divorced Bill. Imagine what it would be like having Bill Clinton and his enormous ego hanging around the WH again even in an 'unofficial' capacity. She'd be a better Senate Majority Leader. Harry Reid is a nice man but a total milquetoast.
May 7, '08
A Hillary official told the Washington Post what I and others have been mocked for saying for months: "We lost this thing in February."
Also, if Obama made Clinton VP, I would expect her to build upon the role from where Cheney started off, plus add to that the desire to move into the top position. I don't think Clinton would be compatible or trustworthy at all in the #2 slot, and I think we all saw this by how she, just two days ago, pledged to use the "nuclear option" to force through rules changes by cashing in on the former loyalties of rules board members.
Also, she's a military hawk and a proponent of first-strike nuclear weapons, which is a war crime. That's the last thing our ticket and a Democratic administration need to be at odds about. We need a ticket that provides a clear contrast to Bush and McCain.
May 7, '08
Obama will win Oregon by at least 10% pts. Sorry Alberto. I am still at a loss why Latinos and Latinas see Obama or African-Americans as a threat, frankly. Seeing equal rights and social justice as a pie with limited slices is a lame way to look at things.
Clinton will be well suited as the next leader of the Senate. She'd easily do better than Reid and she would have a great deal of influence over a President Obama. It may sound like the boobie prize, but in reality it would be a lasting legacy.
Obama will likely chose a VP that will solidify the Latino vote or one that will solidify the white working-class vote... if not both at the same time.
May 7, '08
don't get me wrong, i would weep for joy if the veep slot were to go to john edwards.
however, i'm thinking - especially after the endorsement in portland - that he is going to go after the latino vote & attempt to solidfy the southwest. hence: richardson.
who would be a great choice as well, actually. and it would be nice to have a latino prez in 2016!
May 7, '08
Richardson had a pretty serious case of foot-in-mouth disease on the campaign trail. I'm not so eager to have to have Obama's campaign explain his gaffes all the time.
11:27 a.m.
May 7, '08
My guess is actually Wes Clark. A nominal Clintonite, neuters the military experience question some, plus he would be great pushing O's message on the stump IMO.
May 7, '08
I don't know if Richardson will get the VP nod, but I know he wants it. I believe he switched his support from Clinton to Obama when it became clear to him that Obama would be the nominee. He wanted to make sure he got on board before it was too late. He is making a play for that VP position.
I think he'd make a great VP! And he may help to say some of that latino vote.
1:15 p.m.
May 7, '08
I forgot about Sebelius in KS. She could actually be a very smart play.
May 7, '08
Congrats Obama supporters! He's won! Now you can forget all about any upcoming primaries, and just go back to your games, iPods and Facebook pages. Just forget all about this. It was just a bothersome distraction from all the important things you do.
2:20 p.m.
May 7, '08
avwrobel:
See, it's attitudes like that which have kept a lot of people away from political activism.
I was excited to see so many young people involved this time. We began getting them involved in 2004 with the Dean campaign, and this year just continued that trend.
We have to get the younger generations involved in voting and political action. Otherwise, who is going to run this country in upcoming years when all our current leaders become too old? Who is going to run the county, state, and national party?
Voting and activism needs to be instilled at as early an age as possible so that they continue that trend throughout life.
May 7, '08
WOW I have not seen or heard people tear someone apart like this since 2000 when the repugs tore down John McCain. You guys arent all reregistered repugs are you?
Also, to Kari and others, I find it a little amusing that you have all wanted hillary out for so long that now when it looks as though it may actually happen you decide she should stay in so your guy doesn't look bad. HA HA HA HA HA HA, your a bunch of BUMS.
Its a good thing that the only people reading this blog are Oprah supporters. It wouldn't be good for those who have supported Hillary and need a reason to support the big O.
May 7, '08
If DiFi is publicly asking HilCli what her path to victory looks like, I'd say there isn't one. DiFi is one of the most dedicated Clintonistas, unwavering and very generous in her support.
3:51 p.m.
May 7, '08
I forgot about Sebelius in KS. She could actually be a very smart play.
Indeed, it would. Though personally I prefer the irony of Obama calling on Congresswoman Nita Lowey (D-NY) for VP.
May 7, '08
Ok ok I was just pissed at the incredible CNN anti-Hillary bashing. I'm 49, and was 21 in 1980 and watched Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter, and 29 when Dukakis blew a 20 point lead in the spring and lose to George HW Bush. And here we go again. Obama is a strong Democratic primary candidate, but a very weak general election one. Believe it or not, Hillary is trying to save the Democratic Party from itself in this primary. Did you ever wonder why Obama lost Mass. by 13% to her? Go to Noquarterusa.net and read Patrick - Obama to find out. Obamatruth.org is worth a look for some genuine Obama deconstruction.
7:39 p.m.
May 7, '08
Richardson is not going to be the VEEP nominee. Trust. Its going to be Jim Webb or that governor from Kansas. Richardson is WAY more suited - and I believe comfortable - as Sec. of State. International relations are not handled by VPs and that is where Bill excels.
7:44 p.m.
May 7, '08
Karol:
Yea, that's what I hear from a lot of people. There seems to be a push from supporters for Richarson to be in the Sec. of State position and Edwards for AG.
And I tell you what, after having the Bush appointees in those positions, a team like that sure brings a smile to my face.
12:26 p.m.
May 8, '08
Chickens. Hatch.
May 13, '08
There is no way in hell that this country will have a BLACK man running it.Obama is the worst person to run this country,and you think Bush is Bad.How in the hell can someone like Obama even think so.He has been up in WASHINGTON three years as a senator and he knows nothing about forieng affairs.He even has said that he never got into washington but he knew it needed a change.What was he doing sleeping. The media is the fault of this OBAMA rush.After this i hope that they lose a hell of a lot of viewers.Even now when Obama appears on the tv screen we turn it to something else because we are so fed up with the Obama thing we good PUKE.