Oh man, too bad to hear about McCain breaking his hip. Good thing the White House is ADA compliant!

The comic relief is welcome, because on a less cheery note people need to pay attention to the current state-by-state polling here:

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily http://www.electoral-vote.com/'

Unless you really believe that either VA or both IA and IN are going to go Democratic this year (assuming NM goes Democratic, which is likely), which I think is highly improbable the map looks almost identical to the final result in 2004:

"Previous Elections" -> "Dec. 31, 2004: Wrap-up of 2004 Presidential election coverage"

If you click on the link:

"This day in 2004"

you'll get the sobering message why Obama needs to be doing better, and why a post-convention bounce within historical norms is not going to make the difference. At the very least it shows that it remains the case that people vote the way they do for reasons that have little to do with what most of you believe.

As an Obama supporter, when I look at that map, with OR in the "barely" category for Obama and in the "barely" (to "strongly") category for Smith, the only relevant question is what really is wrong with the most visible partisans from our side as typified by Blue Oregon? Something has to change between now and November and it's really hard to see how it doesn't start for most of you who claim you are the people out there making the case, but who in reality have put us where we stand now, with a look in the mirror.

(You can read about electoral-vote.com, formerly electoral-vote.org and why the academic behind it is recognized for having put together a quite credible meta-poll in electoral-vote.com. Just Google.)

Re Reality is Sobering:

Florida’s 2008 Election Landscape Looking More Like 2000, by Steven Rosenfeld:

"'That is what they did in 2000 with the flawed felon list,'" Sancho said, referring to an error-filled list of alleged ex-felons compiled for Florida's then-Secretary of State, republican Katherine Harris, that was used to purge tens of thousands of Floridians from voter rolls before that year's presidential election. The purge mostly hurt the Democratic Party."

Furthermore, Danny Schecter (mediachannel.org) reports:

"ELECTION PROTECTION

The Obama campaign has announced plans to expand their election protection program by mobilizing more lawyers to monitor polling. But the folks in the election integrity movement say this doesn't go far enough because the problem is that there are unreliable machines and shady software.

Andy Novick, a lawyer in New York State, is bringing suit to try to guarantee fair elections and is running into resistence from Democratic politicians.

'To the dems this is one of those issues no one wants to touch…It's rather extraordinary when you're close to an issue to watch them back away like you've got a highly contagious plague…voting on software is secret vote counting….Voting on software is a corrupt system- opens the door to undetectable tampering. It's the antithesis of a democratic electoral system.'"

On top of that, Obama is refusing to debate anyone other than McCain, and, even then, only in the three rigged debates sponsored by the two parties and paid for by major corporations. He has refused to participate in a number of other debates, including the Google debate in New Orleans, the Ft. Hood, Texas debate that is being organized by veterans groups, and the series of ten town hall meetings proposed by McCain.

This is costing him in the polls now, and it will cost him even more when the public realizes that he is either unwilling or unable to establish his "change" credibility. There will be no debate of key issues and re-directions important to the majority of the American people.

Back to the future?

The concern trolls came out from under the rocks and are out in full force today.

Kari, you can chose to believe what you want. Some of us actually understand the technical deficiencies in Pollster.com's work.

First, he is essentially just talking about the popular vote, which is all but irrelevant, and why I pointed people to state-by-state polling results (Gore won the popular vote, remember?).

Second, you'll also notice in Franklin's commentary he is only describing how the limited number of polls they track differ from 2004, (and he in fact doesn't cite those polls in that writeup.) In many cases Pollster.com looks to Rasmussen and Gallup, you'll have to judge for yourself whether that is a good decision, much less a sufficient basis to give any credibility to these guys. You might find this discussion useful in assessing Pollster.com's work which is sophomoric at best:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/polling-faq.html

I understand. The 2008 election is a choice between Andrew Jackson and John Brown.

I'm with the Seminoles. Time to die rather than live as a domesticated lackey!

Kari, maybe while you are at you can also tell us what the political scientists who pimp their abysmally amateur mathematical skills over at Pollster.com have to say about this:

Is McCain winning over evangelicals? http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Is_McCain_winning_over_evangelicals_0817.html

"The campaign is starting to look more like 2004 than we expected it to look like. The map still favors Obama but McCain has made some gains the last six weeks," said David Domke, a professor of communication at the University of Washington in Seattle and expert on religion and U.S. politics.

Kari: I must be missing something. The Hartmann article you linked to seems to confirm my position. Are you saying that because Hagel supports Obama, the machines are now safe?

And remember, the electronic bias is only one aspect of this. Greg Palast and Harvey Wasserman have shown persuasively that the scrubbing of the voting rolls in Florida and Ohio was conclusive, and Steven Rosenfeld says it's happening again. Furthermore, because of the subcrime crisis, voters who have lost their homes will be precluded from voting because their addresses have changed.

Nothing has been done about this by Democrats. Why? And why is Andy Novick "running into resistance from Democratic politicians" in attempting to correct the problems with the machines?

Your graveyard whistling (that Obama is dramatically outperforming 2004 and 2000) ignores the fact that, when the margin of error is added to the analyses, the race is dead even. Against one of the worst candidates of my lifetime. That's just the kind of scenario that can be easily manipulated into another stolen election that will then be blamed on Nader.

If you're not going to even try to protect the integrity of elections, why not at least support real progressives?

Obama's got personality,great speeches and we see all that ! He can dance,he can shoot from outside He's a rookie Jr. Senator and that scares me ! He's tough Chicago and like that and we agree on most issues and positions. What ia half credit for a vote in America ? Count all votes fair and square and let's win ! Grab Clinton for VP and we'll all dance the night away! There really is divine intervention and wake me up when it's over ! Did he pick Clinton ?If not,be prepared for four more years and that's my sad political, gut feeling I hope is wrong. Obama needs to forget McCain and the mud pies flying and focus on what really counts! We get McCain and God bless public education if it's still there in four more years.Ya gotta hand it to Obama,he's smooth and a character. McCain is throwing mud pies,just tuck and duck and stay on your game plan Obama. We could care less how many houses he has ! Obama picks Clinton and it's over elephants !Have a hair of the polar bear and we'll see ya later ! "Red rover red rover send the "dream team" right over !" That was a great video and "make it take it Obama !" You think to long and you may think wrong! DREAM TEAM UP WITH CLINTON ! Hillary can dance too ! We'll have a dancing White House ! By the way,T.Boone Pickins.com and wecansolveit.org !"Can you dig it,can you dig it, baby...." Oh no,not another dry hole !You'll figure out the Motown song ! Larry King's on Hillary Clinton for VP and most are saying that's Obama's best choice. No doubt, or get ready for four more years and that's just a gut feeling I hope is wrong. Gather peacefully in Denver young voices and be careful ! The eagle flew to bless the grounds! Find your seat with the Native Americans and see their truths of question. Fun video and we know Obama can dance but will he pick Clinton for VP and we'll see ! Dream team up !

<h2>That video makes me laugh and it's awesome ! To be cont. with Clinton ! Clinton's the VP and Obama's leaving clues !</h2>