Punditology: Veepstakes
Kari Chisholm
OK, so it's time for a little prognostication. Break out your crystal ball and tell us who Barack Obama and John McCain will each pick for vice president.
Will it be a fellow Senator? A Governor? A cabinet secretary or business executive? Will they reach across the aisle? Or shore up the base? Will either select a woman? I've got twenty talked-about options for each side.
The deadline is Friday at 5 p.m. - unless we suddenly get a pick this week. So, make your picks right now, before you run outta time.
Oh, and just because, I've added in a question about who they each SHOULD pick.
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Aug 5, '08
What about Ret. Gen. James Jones? There was some buzz about him a few months back.
Aug 5, '08
CQ Politics did a veepstakes like this for both parties a while back. Use it to inform your judgement:
http://innovation.cq.com/vpmadness http://innovation.cq.com/vpmadness_gop
8:57 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
The buzz was around Obama picking Jones. But he endorsed McCain in June.
Aug 5, '08
Ah, I see the date of that article was the day before my wedding. No wonder I wasn't paying attention.
Aug 5, '08
I know it's not gonna happen, but my biggest share of who Obama should pick went to Sen. James Webb, who's not listed.
Aug 5, '08
I'll tell you one thing Kari, it won't be anybody from the West if the corporate media has their way. Today the Commission on Presidential debates released their 4 dates and locations. Nothing West of the Mississippi. I'm so damned sick of this. They should have regional debates that focus on regional issues with local questioners. Hell, I'd even take Lars on the panel. So sick of the beltway and corporate media, am I. Damn this pisses me off and there is no number to call to complain. Guess I'll start with the Obama campaign. Hell, if we have to have a boring white dude as VP, then I am 100% behind Kulongoski. Go Ted Go!
10:08 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
Dude, no Jim Webb?! I'd have put 80 points behind my recommendation for him. He sucks with women (which is why he won't get the nod), but he refutes the Britney attack. I can't believe you didn't even have him on the list.
11:03 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
Um, he's out.
"Last week I communicated to Senator Obama and his presidential campaign my firm intention to remain in the United States Senate, where I believe I am best equipped to serve the people of Virginia and this country," Webb said in a statement. "Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for Vice President."
And yes, I know that every veep prospect says "gee, i'm not really interested" - but it seemed to me (and the media) that Webb's statement was in a different class. Shermanesque.
11:06 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
Yeah, Webb was my guy too, but I agree with Kari that in this case No probably meant No.
Aug 5, '08
Webb? Gag me Kaine is just as bad Women and Westerners can stuff it, I guess
11:44 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
Um, he's out.
Yeah, so what? Strickland http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/10/strickland_takes_himself_out_o.htmlhttp://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/10/strickland_takes_himself_out_o.htmldid the same thing, and you had him in there.
11:47 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
Women and Westerners can stuff it, I guess
The three candidates I'd be happiest with are Webb, Sebelius, and Schweitzer. But with veeps, you pick your poison. Go with Webb and risk irritating women. Go with Sebelius and risk losing the blue collar, white male. Go with Schweitzer and you have to contend with everyone saying "Brian who?"
I'm with you that Kaine is a poor choice, and Bayh's just about as uninspired. Both are serious candidates, though.
11:51 a.m.
Aug 5, '08
I don't remember a similarly Shermanesque quote from Strickland, but I might have missed it. (Or maybe I'm just still wishing it's him - since he's a former client.)
As for Bayh... I found this post at 538 absolutely fascinating.
Aug 5, '08
I kind of liked the prospect of Claire McCaskill. For awhile there is seemed like she was getting some press time around the issue and I don't remember her saying she wasn't interested. She is likeable and I think would very much re-enforce Obama's message and when elected do well with pushing a lege. agenda.
12:11 p.m.
Aug 5, '08
Strickland: "If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept and if elected I will not serve," Strickland told National Public Radio's "All Things Considered. "So, I don't know how more crystal clear I can be."
But I know it's hard to keep track of all the veep chatter. In July, it's the only game, and these guys make about 7000 appearances as surrogates.
Aug 5, '08
Kari, from the article you posted: By either measure, Bayh is considerably more liberal than you would expect of a Democrat from Indiana.
who the hell cares? I'm a left coast woman and sick of this crap. please don't shit on your base, Obama. Pick a westerner. Bayh gets you nothing.
Aug 5, '08
McCain needs to pick a governor. That will give the ticket some administrative experience. Younger, with some charisma. He also needs to make a pick that will help bring back Republicans who think he's too far left. Geographically, an eastener or a southerner.
I think he should pick Romney.
12:38 p.m.
Aug 5, '08
The VoteView rankings are useless. They're not weighted for what people are voting on.
Bayh's VoteView ranking in the 110s Congress is just a couple slots from that of Joe Lieberman. And that's the Joe Lieberman of today, not the supposedly moderate Joe who was the 2000 VP choice of Al Gore.
Lieberman himself is ranked as more liberal than 19 other senators, including Carl Levin, Jim Webb, Robert Byrd, and Barbara Mikulski. Ron Wyden's ranking is #16. I don't think he's all that liberal myself, but I'm not sure that I'd rank him as more conservative than Tom Harkin or Joe Biden.
You tell me whether a system that comes up with that kind of ranking is sound.
Aug 5, '08
I'm still for Nunn, Sebelius and Kaine, in that order. don't want any Senator whose seat we might lose, or a Governor who is eligible to still be in that office so as to influence redistricting in 2011 (main reason I didn't want Strickland anyway). I don't care if the VP is conservative--seems like one of the more harmless ways for Obama to posture as middle of the road. Heck, if he picked one of Maine's senators and opened that seat up, it would be just great.
Daschle intrigues me too. It would be a sign Obama's serious about those 3-EV Big Sky states where he's narrowly behind and where Democrats haven't competed nationally for decades. They look like few votes for a lot of work at first, but MT, ND and SD together add up to nine, which is a big deal.
Aug 5, '08
An Obama-Nader ticket would get the left really fired up.
Aug 5, '08
And up against a McCain-Romney ticket the extremity of the difference between the two sides would make for a firey contest.
Aug 5, '08
I'm for Sebelius, Richardson, and Rendell in that order. But I think it will be Rendell.
For the Repubs it's Romney, hands down.
6:42 p.m.
Aug 5, '08
There's nothing more intriguing than a guy who was about as tepid a Democratic leader as there could be, who was the first Senate party leader to be defeated in over forty years, who led Senate Democrats to vote for Bush's vanity war and lose the Senate to the GOP.
Tom-mentum!
Seriously, even though I'm not exactly ga-ga over Obama, he does have some undeniable star appeal. Why saddle him with an albatross like Daschle? If he can't land someone with some name recognition, he should at least choose someone whose rep isn't that of a loser.
9:12 p.m.
Aug 5, '08
Dan Quayle hung about the neck of George Herbert Walker Bush like the anchor on the Queen Mary, and yet won. There is no such thing as an albatross. It's not that big a deal.
Ask yourself: does bagging on Tom Daschle do anything to help deliver Oregon's electoral votes to Barack Obama?
9:20 a.m.
Aug 6, '08
Ask yourself: does Tom Daschle do anything to help deliver a win for Barack Obama? Or to promote the concept of "CHANGE"?
No such thing as an albatross? You must never have heard of Sen. Thomas Eagleton.
Aug 6, '08
Steve said, "An Obama-Nader ticket would get the left really fired up."
Maybe a Nader-Obama ticket, if Obama were to reverse his regressive positions on foreign policy, constitutional rights, trade policy, workers' rights, impeachment of war criminals, increased military spending, Wall Street securities speculation tax...actually, I think it's unlikely that "the left" could possibly get fired up about Obama. Matt Gonzalez is far more progressive than Obama, and he's got the charisma, too.
Aug 6, '08
I believe the definition of "Political Suicide" would be spelled N A D E R and have a pic of Ralph next to it.
For the Dems - Richardson, Reps - Romney.
4:57 p.m.
Aug 6, '08
You can believe it, but that doesn't mean that it's true. Although I have to point out, Nader's two-and-a-half years older than John McCain, and I can't really advocate for someone in line for the chief executive slot who'd be 78 at the end of the first term.
It sort of depends on where you see Obama's weak flank. If you buy the Republican spin on him, he's Commie Muslim who needs a truly reactionary Democrat or even a Republican to shore up his crazy elitist image. On the other hand, if you view him as a popular, moderate, centrist Democrat, that same kind of choice might be seen as one more rightward lurch by a party that's been leaning the GOP's direction for decades. Changing it up with someone like Nader for VP in order to shore up the left bank could be a good strategy, but it isn't going to happen in a million years.
Seriously, is the right the only people the Democrats care about reaching out to?
Aug 6, '08
Apparently there aren't just two Americas, there are two John Edwards families...
10:53 p.m.
Aug 6, '08
People for the American Way is pushing a petition for Obama to choose a "progressive". Definition is not a high bar
It would however exclude anti-abortion candidates.
You can enter suggestions.
I really don't get people who treat this as a throwaway choice. We need someone we would be comfortable becoming president. Obama needs balance to the left more than to the right.
It is weird that they can't even manage a debate in L.A.
Aug 6, '08
darrelplant asked, "Seriously, is the right the only people the Democrats care about reaching out to?"
Seriously, and unfortunately, Yes.
By continuously betraying those to the left of them (almost everyone), DP elites have sown the seeds of their own party's defeat time after time (If it weren't for Ross Perot, they'd be 0 for their last 8). That sounds like political suicide to me.
10:08 a.m.
Aug 7, '08
Even Dick Cheney believes "privacy is a constitutional right." His own, at least.
7:18 p.m.
Aug 7, '08
Kari,
Finally followed your Evan Bayh link. The point that he's about a liberal as you could get in Indiana without losing seems true enough, but he still seems to be in the most conservative third of Democratic senators according to their methodology, and slightly more conservative than Joe Lieberman. Not what I personally think Obama should choose.
Take a gander at where McCain is, btw.
The usual methods questions apply, of course.
Aug 7, '08
Daschle is one of the biggest wimps ever - completely ineffective!
Sibelius - no way. She may be good, great even, but the choice of another woman other than Hillary Clinton is the ultimate slap in the face to every Clinton supporter. Won't happen.
I'm not racist, but realist. The next vice president won't be Richardson. An African-American candidate is not about to ask a Hispanic man to be his vice president. In a perfect world, perhaps.
<h2>Obama's pick will most likely be a white man. I wish he'd pick Hillary Clinton. Obama needs her to win. She got half the Democratic vote and Obama's barely ahead in the polls. He has to hit the nail on the head with his VP pick, or he may lose. Chris Dodd is not a bad choice. He made some of the gutsiest moves this past session, and seemed to have more balls than most Dems.</h2>