Punditology Veepstakes: Which political nerd reigns supreme?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Well, now that we know both of the running mates, it's time to revisit the Punditology Challenge: Veepstakes Edition.

For starters, no one - out of 268 putative prognosticators - correctly predicted both Joe Biden and Sarah Palin.

Biden was the fourth most-popular prediction, with only 25 correct punditologists. Of those 25, just one person correctly picked the right date, August 23rd: David Miller. David is a Utah blogger and software engineer.

Palin was a true surprise - with just one person correctly making that selection: Tony McCown, though he was off by two days on the timing. Tony is a recent student body president and current board member of Lane Community College.

To both David and Tony, we bow down before your awesome powers of prognostication! You are the kings of the crystal ball!

Honorable mention goes to the three people that correctly picked the right announcement dates for BOTH Obama and McCain: David Miller, Mike Linman, and (sheepish grin) yours truly. Of course, I thought it was going to be Kathleen Sebelius and Mitt Romney - so what do I know?

Thanks again to all those who participated. I'll be back in October - with two challenges, a national one and an Oregon one. Start polishing your crystal balls now.

Oh, and if you want to use this thread as an open thread about the veeps, go right ahead. I'll pose a question: Will Sarah Palin survive? Will the GOP convention approve her nomination? Will she be forced to withdraw?

  • Bill R. (unverified)

    Obviously there was zero vetting of Palin. The revelations to date are the tip of the iceberg. Palin will be forced to withdraw within two weeks to "spend more time with her family."

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    It seems that reputable bookies in the UK and Ireland have dramatically dropped their odds that Palin will remain McCain's Veep candidate for long.

    If they are right - and they aren't in the business of losing money... - then you might need to revisit the Punditology Veepstakes before the end of the month.

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    Yea, I have a hard time believing that she'll last as the VP choice. Already there is at least one poll showing that McCain's VP bounce went to Obama instead. There's just too much there, and that's with almost no digging.

  • Jim H. (unverified)

    I developed a new theory on why McCain chose Palin, and it kind of follows the Republican mantra of "Government doesn't work, elect me and I'll prove it".

    I think McCain is of the old sexist school who thinks a woman should not be commander in chief. Spooked by how close Hillary came this year, he chose a woman as a running-mate who (win or lose) will be a laughing stock. If he loses spectacularly in November, he blames the loss on America not being ready for a woman president. Or, he wins and spends the next 4 or 8 years setting Palin up time and again for failure and humiliation.

    Either way it discourages women from running for another 24 years. Why else would he pass up several other more qualified women in the Republican party - women who would actually be a credible candidate and president?

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    There's just too much there, and that's with almost no digging.

    You sure got that right.

    A week ago I was lamenting the Olympics being over 'cause I'd written a tongue-in-cheek piece a month ago about naked Olympics that was driving a steady lane of traffic to my blog.

    Then McCain presented me with the most target-rich environment that I've seen in a long time and traffic is way up.

  • Gregor (unverified)

    Palin is going down and McCain is going with her. The question of vetting will remain once she leaves. Either he admits he did not vet her, which illustrates a critical lack of judgment, or the vetting ignored the fact that she was actively under investigation. Another ilustration of delporable judgment. Were the pickings that sparse Palin was the last candidate left standing?

    I suspect Palin was not vetted. A spokesperson just noted that they could not completely vet her as it would have spoiled the surprise, too many strangers poking around in Alaska. So who's putting politics before country now? McCain risked a bad choice in an effort to steal Obama's thunder in the campaign. As a woman he probably woudl have ignored her anyway if he did get to be President.

    Now the surprise is on Senator McCain. I want a copy of the video of his tirade at the people who suggested she was a viable candidate. Seriously though, how could they propose someone under active investigation? Oh, right, there's nothing the Reich despises worse then oversight of a democratically elected government by representatives of the people.

  • Travis Diskin (unverified)

    I couldn't find the results from the last Punditology Challenge for the primaries. Where is that post?

  • Bill McDonald (unverified)

    Not only am I really tired of Sarah Palin, but I'm already tired of this hockey player, too. To think it all could have been avoided with heavy petting and heavy vetting.

  • Remulac (unverified)

    Hmmm, I dunno. Palin was "vetted" alright, but not by the McCain campaign. Instead, as Max Blumenthal reports in The Nation, Palin got a clean bill of ideological health from the Council for National Policy, a secretive group whose members include such paramount chiefs of the religious right as Tony Perkins, James Dobson, Grover Norquist, Tim LaHaye and Paul Weyrich. Excuse me: "Doctor" James Dobson. They met with Palin last Wednesday. The question is whether they also delivered an ultimatum to McCain, telling him that they would publicly withdraw their support from him if he obeyed his druthers and named Joe Lieberman as his running mate. It is also an open question whether the CNP also made Sarah Palin's candidacy a condition of their continued support -- or maybe the better term is "non-opposition."

    Neither of these scenarios may be true. Even so, Sarah Palin appears to be very popular with the right-wing White Evangelical Protestant base -- a group without whom McCain has no hope of winning and who will be most especially displeased if he were to compound rash stupidity by dumping Palin. McCain may very well go down with Palin. But he is certain to lose without her.

  • Gregor (unverified)

    Are their any Republicans left that are not radical extemist Christians drinking a daily dose of Dobson?

  • Dude (unverified)

    It's difficult to believe these predictions that Palin will be dropped from the ticket. Evidence for this?

    It would be a disaster if she were dropped, if only because it would make McCain's judgment appear worse.

    With so little time remaining, does anyone else out there really believe they'll drop her?

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    At this point, it would be easy and understandable if she pulled off the ticket, saying her family needed her right now.

    His problem is that while he made many of the right-wingers happy with his choice, his more moderate supporters aren't happy. And he can't win the election unless he has the support of both.

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    I'm charging five dollars to every punditology player in the next iteration. By merely offering my picks, the payer can safely eliminate my choices, increasing her/his own chances for winning. Five bucks, people, step right up.

    <h2>(I had Pawlenty and Bayh.)</h2>

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