Oregon's Lagging Early Turnout
Jeff Alworth
A week ago, Bill Bradbury predicted voters would set the modern record for turnout in Oregon. But so far, it hasn't played out that way. After seven days of voting, only 24% of eligible voters had returned their ballots, compared to 30% in '04. So what gives?
Nate Silver does a quickie analysis and concludes:
More importantly, however, the counties most culpable for the depressed turnout appear to be those that voted substantially for George W. Bush in 2004. For example, in Multnomah County, which is largely coincident with the reliably liberal Portland, turnout is down 16 percent as compared with the comparable period in 2004. Downstate in more rural Douglas County, meanwhile, where Bush received two-thirds of the vote in 2004, turnout is 27 percent off-pace.
Looking at this sub-sample suggest to Nate that the GOP base isn't turning out. (He has cool tables and graphs.) But though I love his analysis, this is a weird set-up. Why select just populous counties? Everyone knows that the way red Oregon balances out blue is by the many rural counties. In 2004, Kerry won Oregon by carrying just 8 of 36 counties. Instead, why not look at all counties?
When you break it down and compare turnout in Kerry-voting and Bush-voting counties you see ... no real effect. Kerry-voting counties have returned 24.5% of their ballots (261,191 returned ballots of 1,067,597 registered voters) as compared to 23.6% in the Bush counties (260,997 of 1,104,158).
But wait! Isn't it true that there are more Dems now than there were in '04, and couldn't these new Dems account for the early votes in places like Wheeler County (34% returned). Yes. There are actually many scenarios one might paint to keep alive the intensity argument. But the empirical evidence is scant.
Jeff Mapes suggests either the lack of a hot-button ballot measure or indecision in the Senate race might have suppressed enthusiasm. Could be. My pet theories are these: 1) although there is great interest in the election this year, Oregonians are not getting the kind of attention we got in '00 and '04, and are therefore haven't stirred ourselves to vote, and/or 2) the polls so strongly suggest an Obama win that voters are complacent about getting their ballots in.
Surely you have some pet theories. Let's hear them.
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
Oct 29, '08
Conservative felines in Los Gatos emailed their Oregon counterparts to chew up owners' ballots.
You wanted a pet theory.
Oct 29, '08
Humans procrastinate. Empirical proof? I'm posting on Blue Oregon when I should be doing other work.
Or perhaps the misinformation campaign about Nov. 5th is working?
No...I'm sticking with my first theory. Okay, I've got to clean the bottom of my closet.
Oct 29, '08
Perhaps it is because we now understand that a "mail in ballot" doesn't really need to be mailed in, which would require mailing before election day; you can just drop it off on election day itself. As more people realize you can do that, it makes sense that more people would take advantage.
2:51 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
My sense is that there are more confusing ballot measures for people to think about, the weather has been nice so people are not inside as much, and people are turned off by the Senate ads and conflicted about voting for either candidate.
Oct 29, '08
Straight men and gay women are too busy staring at the picture of China Forbes on your web site.
Oct 29, '08
Maybe we should tell these people that if they turn their ballots in early, they won't get them pesky robocalls :)
That would get them rolling in....
3:04 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
Here's some statistics I pulled from the dark side of the ballot box:
1 in every 50 ballots is being lost in the abyss of our federal postal system.
5 in every 10 ballots is being forgotten under a large pile of credit card bills and health care bills
1 in 10 ballots are not being mailed because Oregonians are too cheap to put a stamp on them.
3 in 10 ballots are not being returned because Oregonians are too cheap to waste the gas to drive the ballots over to their local drop off point.
1 in 10 Oregonians let their pets vote for them and the pets haven't decided yet.
I could go on, but it seems we know why they aren't voting ;)
3:18 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
Lots of new registrants who are less familiar with voting by mail and are holding their ballots.
Changes in the rolls since 2004. In 2004, many new voters added by ACT volunteers and then taken off when they did not vote in 2006.
A very competitive Senate race would lead voters to hold ballots.
Oct 29, '08
I know why I haven't voted yet ...
I'm a procrastinator.
But don't worry, I'll drop my ballot off at the local library on election day like I always do.
Oct 29, '08
I have two ballot dropoff points within two blocks of my Portland home. One of those dropoffs is at a public library. But what's the situation for people in small towns and scattered settlements in much of Oregon?
Oct 29, '08
I don't know about everyone else, but I held on to my ballot for several extra days waiting to research obscure down-ticket races (like East Multnomah County Water Conservation District Directors).
I'd guess people are trying to figure out which way to vote on those smaller races and maybe some ballot measures - I went back and forth on a couple of those myself (57 & 65).
Oct 29, '08
I still have not decided on a few things, and have no idea how to vote on the sheriff and water and soil district thing. Any suggestions?
I also have not found out if there are any good, progressive, election night parties to go to. You know, somewhere where there will be interest in more than Obama and Merkley. Somewhere where Naderites might be welcome, where folks will be just as interested in the Columbia County and California ballot measures as they are in how many Democrats there are in the Senate. Somewhere where you're allowed to whine about Obama's foreign policy. Is there a party for folks like that, or do I just get together with my lefty friends?
3:46 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
Alternate theory: voters love getting get-out-the-vote calls, so they wait until the last minute.
Carl's stats have to be right: 10.2 out of 10 ballots are never returned for various reasons. I knew there was a conspiracy to steal the election!
Oct 29, '08
Well, we don't have any hateful anti-gay ballot measures this time to crank up the hate vote.
But we still need to get our butts down to the local Dem offices and GOTV.
4:11 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
Chris #12. Can't help you with your Soil and Water district, but the choice for Sherrif in Multnomah County is clearly Skinner. He ran a good department before he retired and came back at the request of nearly everyone who was concerned with how badly the place was run by his successor. He needs to be elected to finish cleaning up the mess.
4:14 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
I don't necessarily agree with joeblow, but I do appreciate the identification of the photo. I know I was distracted, but I managed to vote last week anyway.
Oct 29, '08
If you put a first class stamp on it, you haven't voted. Maybe that's a big part.
Now, if some group like the League wants to actually put their solicited $$$ to GOOD use, pay the differential postage for all that would be sent back.
Oct 29, '08
Chris #12, For the soil & water district directors, the comments down in this BO post helped me a little.
I ended up going with Peter Finley Fry and Rick Till. Rick Till was a gut feeling based on very little info. Fry was easier as Ron McCarty doesn't seem to know anything about the position (in the voter guide he says he's looking forward to learning about it?!?!)
5:17 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
I'd definitely recommend look at this comment by Jim Robison about the Soil & Water Conservation Districts. He's pretty knowledgeable on the topic.
I think a lot of people are like me - ballot is voted, they're just waiting for the others in the house to vote. Once the other two ballots here in the house are done, I'll go drop them all off at a drop location. I just didn't want to have to do that more than once since we're without a vehicle until we buy a new car and getting to the drop locations here in east county isn't always easy. I wish we had more drop spots than just the Gresham, Rockwood, and Fairview libraries.
Oct 29, '08
Thanks for the tips on my soil, water, and sheriff--now who's got the goods on the progressive election party?
Oct 29, '08
I think there may be a depressed turnout. I think there are more people that we think who will have a hard time voting for Obama but can't bare to vote for McCain. So, they will sit it out. I personally know several. Many are loyal Republicans who are just not ready to vote Democratic. For some race and strangeness are an issue. These are people for whom racism isn't really a way of life. They have African Amerian friends, work with African Americans, etc. but have trouble identifying with African Americans enough to vote for one for president. They may even be ashamed of themselves. But the issue is still there. So, they are going to sit it out and several even hope Obama wins. They just can't vote for them. (I have voted and I voted whole heartedly for Obama.)
6:48 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
According to Multnomah County's numbers, we're now down 6%.
In 2004, we were at 42% and 181,767 ballots returned. Today's number shows 36% and 154,895. Of course, today's number could be updated tomorrow, which often happens since the number is typically posted before they're actually done scanning all the day's ballots as being returned (it's not out of the ordinary for staff to be working well past 5 p.m. once we're this close to the election). I know yesterday's numbers did show 24%, but now they show 30%.
Also, I think people are right about depressed turnout among Republicans. I just looked at the numbers, and only one county (Sherman) has the same turnout % for Dems and Repubs. Every other county Dems are higher in turnout.
In every county the Democratic turnout is higher than the county's average turnout. As a matter of fact, only in six counties is the turnout 5% or less above the county average - Lake (3%), Sherman (3%), Grant (4%), Jefferson (5%), Malheur (5%), and Multnomah (5%). Statewide, Democratic turnout is 7% higher than the overall turnout.
What does this mean? For one thing, it means that Democrats need to be out knocking on doors, making calls, etc. here in Multnomah County to get the turnout up - there are only 8 counties with turnout worse than Multnomah County. We need to turn out voters here in Multnomah County so we can win for Obama, Merkley, Brown, Westlund, Kroger, Avakian, etc.
I have to say I am impressed with Dem turnout here in east county - for once we're running higher than the county average.
Oct 29, '08
I still think Bill B. may not be off the mark. Give it time. There are some heavy duty measures for folks this year, as well as a hotly contested senate race.....
Also, I can clearly understand those in the "red" counties sittin' back, pondering, hesitating, (some even hoping for a drastic turn of events), etc....
The return ballots will come in by Tuesday.
jmo
Oct 29, '08
I'm still trying to make up my mind on Measure 57. I keep hearing that "polls show both 61 and 57 will pass," but I haven't seen the numbers. I'd rather see both fail and if the polls are relatively close, I'll vote against both of them, but it the margins exceed 10%, I'll vote for 57.
So anyone know what the polls show onf 61 and 57?
Oct 29, '08
Here's a really boring theory - the ballots in many counties went out on Friday the 17th. Some post offices had trouble with the large volume. Thus, my wife received her ballot on Saturday, while mine didn't arrive until Tuesday.
Oct 29, '08
So I thought Paul got it right when he noted the increased number of voters this cycle. If the registration drives were as successful as claimed (Bus project says >30,000 new registered voters by them alone) then the same number of people could have voted this year as in '04, but the percentages would be lower. But I was surprised by Jenni's numbers, which seem to indicate no increase (even a small decrease) in the number of registered voters. Can that be right? Aren't we working with a larger group of voters this year?
10:30 p.m.
Oct 29, '08
There's about 6,000 more voters in Multnomah County than there was in 2004.
Statewide we have 31,319 more voters.
There is always a very large decrease in voters between presidential elections. As such, you often times have to add tens of thousands of voters just to break even with the previous presidential election.
1:19 a.m.
Oct 30, '08
i've been out doing a lot of gotv, talking to voters in East County, Silverton, OCity, West Linn; and i think people are taking this election very seriously. the two crime measures are not clear, nor is (to them, sigh) M65. people are not just going "eff it: no no no". they're thinking about it. i've met people waiting to sit down as a couple or family to vote. hell, i haven't voted yet. in the end, we'll be there. but people are taking this seriously and not just filling in the dots and tossing it in the mail.
and perhaps more people feel that waiting til near the 4th is more like an election day. that's just a supposition.
Oct 30, '08
This year, I completed and mailed off my ballot within a day or two of receiving it, so excited as I was to vote for Obama (and others). However, since then I have really come to second guess my choice in the city commissioner race, and wish that I had sat on the ballot longer and hadn't worried so much about getting it in early. I am a relatively young voter; I wonder if this is sort of a general trend for vote-by-mailers, and that just as more Oregon voters get used to voting this way, they are less inclined over time to vote the moment the envelope arrives in the mail. I know that I am much less likely to vote as early next election year.
Oct 30, '08
Gil,
Unfortunately, polling revealed that both crime measures were in the above 60% range in positives. This was reported by a legislator at our County meeting in Sept. Time has passed, but according to most in-the-know folks I've talked to, both will pass.
57 is much preferable since it directs resources to drug re-hab.
I am rather surprised that most on the right don't pick up on the great fallacy of 61. Despite tougher sentencing for property crime offenders, the fact that they are property crime offenders (as opposed to committing acts of violence) means that there will always be a release date for them.
Without treatment programs, recitivism is much higher, and this is born on by research. The revolving door analogy is perfectly appropriate for 61, and its one expensive door.
Oct 30, '08
Maybe people are using outdated postage stamps, the post office is holding them for postage due, and without a return address, they get dumped and shredded. I can't even remember how much postage actually is right now, it keeps changing. Likely a problem. I have a drawer of old stamps, without actual value on them, and sometimes use them in error. Probably why the postage increases keep coming. It's a plot . . . .
Oct 30, '08
The statistics are bogus. In 2004 the ballots went out all together. There was a delay this time because of a large increase in the number of registrants, and the ballots went out over a 4-day period. The numbers on any given day in the first week or so should lag something between 1 and 4 days behind the numbers in 2004.
Oct 30, '08
The statistics are bogus. In 2004 the ballots went out all together. There was a delay this time because of a large increase in the number of registrants, and the ballots went out over a 4-day period. The numbers on any given day in the first week or so should lag something between 1 and 4 days behind the numbers in 2004.
Oct 30, '08
Truman, can you explain this to me where that large increase in the number of registrants went?
You see about 2,170,000 ballots were mailed for the 2008 General according to the Secretary of State. For the 2004 General 2,139,464 were mailed.
Oct 30, '08
One other comment for the Blue Oregon folks who are waiting to turn in your ballots for no good reason.
You are wasting our time.
You see, we bruise our knuckles and our feet marching around town and knocking on doors for a week and a half every four years to remind folks to turn in their ballots.
If you turn in your ballot you won't be on our lists, we won't knock on your door next week and disturb your family time. We will knock on the door of someone who genuinely needs the reminder, who needs questions answered about how to turn it in, who needs to find information about the races because their voter's guide got lost, or who needs to be reminded why that there is an important US House and US Senate seat just a little ways down ticket and several other very important issues that need public input all the way down the line.
Save our time, save our voices, save our energy for those who can benefit most. Turn in your ballot tonight.
Oct 30, '08
Save our time, save our voices, save our energy for those who can benefit most. Turn in your ballot tonight.
No. I will drop off my ballot on election day, as I do every year. From the voter rolls you should be able to see that I vote every single election, without fail. If you choose to waste your time calling/mailing/knocking on my door, that's your own damn problem.
Oct 30, '08
You just might be missing the point.
Can we depend on you to vote no on 64 by knowing your party ID? No.
Can we depend on you to sort out 57 and 61 by knowing that you turn in a ballot every year? No.
Can we depend on you seeing through Sen. Smith's sheepskin suit based on your neighborhood? No. Been there, done that, and he got reelected in spite of his record.
If you have a good reason to hold on to your ballot, so be it. Still making up your mind? That's great. I look forward to talking with you about it.
There is a reason we are out there, and it's not to make each other feel important. We are there to advocate our cause and preaching to the choir is a bit of a waste.
I have made my appeal and laid out my reasoning for it. If you want to be constructive I look forward to the feedback. If you don't, well, I understand being a crank and, as you say, that's your own damn problem.
Oct 30, '08
Steve, whether I turn in my ballot early or late gives you no indication as to whether or not I'm in the choir. If you're looking to persuade me to vote a certain way, then you should be hoping that I DON'T turn in my ballot until you have time to talk to me. So it's not even clear why you want me to vote early.
You need to understand how offensive this is to those of us who take voting seriously: If you have a good reason to hold on to your ballot, so be it.
ANY reason a voter holds onto his/her ballot is a good reason, and your reason for wanting me to turn it in early doesn't even come close to persuading me.
Oct 30, '08
Steve, whether I turn in my ballot early or late gives you no indication as to whether or not I'm in the choir. If you're looking to persuade me to vote a certain way, then you should be hoping that I DON'T turn in my ballot until you have time to talk to me. So it's not even clear why you want me to vote early.
You need to understand how offensive this is to those of us who take voting seriously: If you have a good reason to hold on to your ballot, so be it.
ANY reason a voter holds onto his/her ballot is a good reason, and your reason for wanting me to turn it in early doesn't even come close to persuading me.
10:34 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
Actually, ballots did not go out all together in 2004. They too were mailed out over a period of a few days.
I know in Multnomah County we were still inputting registration cards after the first batch of ballots went out, we'd received so many.
Oct 31, '08
Steve & Jenni - you're both right.
The statewide number of ballots mailed out and time frame are both comparable to 2004. I was repeating incorrect information heard from our County Clerk. Checking the numbers, our rural county has had a 6% rise in registrations, entirely Democratic.
We're still slightly outnumbered by Republicans, so there is plenty else to do. Like make sure all the Dems are getting their ballots in.
Oct 31, '08
Miles,
Reviewing, I said: - for the Blue Oregon folks who are waiting to turn in your ballots for no good reason.
You reply: "You need to understand how offensive this is to those of us who take voting seriously" You have no reason to take offense, unless you do. And the (estimated) 900,000 voters who have turned in their ballots by now are no less serious about democracy than you in spite of your disparaging implication. They just made the time to do it. You hold no monopoly on integrity.
<h2>So far it looks like your reason is "because I always wait to the last possible moment." If you take offense, again as you said, that's your own damn problem.</h2>