Oregonian, KGW, KOIN call it for Jeff Merkley! (Update: Merkley by 44,819 votes.)Kari Chisholm

We win! We win!

The Oregonian has declared a winner in the U.S. Senate election: Your new Senator-elect is Jeff Merkley.

Here's the latest numbers, updated 1:15 p.m. Details below.

48.6%	789,793	Jeff Merkley	Projection: 49.0% - 825,901
45.9%	744,974	Gordon Smith	Projection: 45.5% - 766,177
5.2%	85,139	David Brownlow	Projection: 5.2% - 87,331

As of 6:02 p.m.: While the margin is only 382 votes, it's now a mathematical impossibility for Gordon Smith to retake the lead. Here's the details of my latest projection (fully debugged and mathematically correct):

• In Multnomah County, there are roughly 138,000 votes left to count - and they're coming in 67% for Merkley, 29% for Smith. That's an expected net gain of 52,000 votes coming in for Merkley.
• In Lane County, there are roughly 58,000 votes left to count - and they're coming in for Merkley 58% to Smith's 38%. That's an expected net gain of 12,000 votes coming in for Merkley.
• In Marion County, there are roughly 28,000 votes left to count - and they're coming in for Smith 52% to 41%. That's an expected net gain of 3,000 votes coming in for Smith.
• In Clackamas County, there are roughly 58,000 votes left to count - and they're coming in for Smith 48% to 47%. That's an expected net gain of only 600 votes coming in for Smith.
• In Linn County, there are roughly 14,000 votes left to count - and they're coming in for Smith 52% to 41%. That's an expected net gain of only 2400 votes coming in for Smith.
• Amongst all the other 31 counties, we expect that Smith will have a net gain of 4300 more votes.

In sum, my estimate right now is that Merkley will get roughly 880,000 votes, Smith will get roughly 825,000 votes. That's a win of 49% to 46%. Dave Brownlow will finish with roughly 86,000 votes, or 5%.

I'll continue to update and refine as results come in.

Update, 6:45 p.m.: Sorry, I was a little behind on getting in the 6pm update from Multnomah, plus updates from Clackamas and Lane. Multnomah is up to 63% counted, with a net gain of 2197 for Merkley. Clackamas is up to 69% counted, with a net gain of 1521 for Smith. Lane is up to 74% counted, with a net gain of 1853 for Merkley. Overall, Merkley is now up by 2547 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 53,283 votes.

Update, 7:07 p.m.: Multnomah County is now in, with 71% counted, with a net gain of 1738 for Merkley. Merkley is now up by 4285 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 40,102 votes, or 48.3% to 46.1%.

Update, 7:32 p.m.: Lane County and Jackson County have now updated, though it's basically a wash, with 355 net gain in votes for Smith. Merkley is now up by 3930 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 38,957 votes.

Update, 7:35 p.m.: Jeff Mapes at the Oregonian has a very funny tale about Jeff Merkley talking to the press in his driveway, headlined "Suburban man learns he is a new U.S. Senator". Looks like we won't be getting a victory speech tonight.

Update, 8:15 p.m.: Another hourly update from Multnomah, and another 1807 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 5737 votes. On MSNBC's Countdown tonight, uberpundit Chris Cilizza was confident about Merkley's chances, while calling the other three too-close seats (Minnesota, Alaska, Georgia) "much more up for grabs."

Update, 8:37 p.m.: While Multnomah continues to report numbers, Lane County is done reporting results until 10 a.m. tomorrow. Also, Washington County won't report another batch until Thursday at 3 p.m. Seriously. And, this is very interesting and important: While the Oregonian is reporting that Linn County is 78% counted, Linn County has this note on their results: "These results reflect all ballots received at this time." (I've been wondering if all the 92-96% counted numbers at the O are actually 100%. If that's the case, then something like 6700 of the Smith votes in my estimate don't actually exist.)

Update, 9:04 p.m.: Multnomah has another hourly update, and another 1983 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Marion County has now finished its count, with a final 1644 net votes for Smith. Merkley now leads by 6076 votes. Also, just noticed that Jackson County says that it's done. Looking at Josephine, it's clear they're done (total ballots equals total results, counting over/under votes.) Going to start plugging through all the small counties, trying to figure out whether they're really done or still counting (as the O seems to be reporting.)

Update, 9:23 p.m.: The Oregonian has now posted their writeup of the projection calling it for Jeff Merkley. Of course, maybe I should bag this whole game and let the Senator-elect handle the math:

"I've been going through the numbers about every hour and a half," he said in an afternoon phone interview. He said he ran his own mathematical models and expects to come out "comfortably ahead" when the dust settles.

Update, 9:27 p.m.: OK, I've verified that the following counties are 100% counted, no matter what the O says: Douglas, Josephine, Linn, Deschutes, and importantly, Lane County is done. Strangely, some key counties don't report over/under votes, making it impossible to know if the count is totally done (Marion, Washington, Clackamas, Multnomah).

Update, 9:58 p.m.: Just caught the Decision 2008 show, and KGW called it for Jeff Merkley as well, piggybacking on the O's projection.

Update, 10:15 p.m.: The latest Multnomah County numbers include another 1978 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 7857 votes. My estimate now has Jeff Merkley winning by 45,347 votes.

Update, 11:06 p.m.: During the 11 p.m. news hour, KOIN-6 called the race for Jeff Merkley. Also, the Merkley campaign has announced a victory speech tomorrow morning. Details here.

Update, 11:20 p.m.: If you're wondering why the Oregonian has a bigger lead for Merkley, it's because they're missing the final numbers from Josephine and Jackson counties. I'm confident we've got the most full count in the state.

Update, 11:39 p.m.: Well, as we wait for the next Multnomah update (maybe tomorrow?!) I'll note that there are 101,241 votes left to count in Multnomah. Those votes should extend Merkley's lead by another 38,758 votes. In the entire rest of the state, there are (at most) 21,235 votes left, and those should be a net 900 votes for Gordon Smith.

Update, 1:10 a.m. Thursday: Hey, check that out. Another Multnomah update, and it's a big one. Jeff Merkley picked up a net 7,033 votes. Merkley now leads by 14,890 votes.

Update, 7:22 a.m. Overnight, Multnomah County continued the count and Jeff Merkley picked up a net gain of 22,767 votes. Merkley now leads by 37,657 votes.

Update, 8:48 a.m. There's a fresh update from Clackamas County, with a net gain of 2749 votes for Gordon Smith. Merkley now leads by 34,908 votes.

Update, 1:15 p.m. Just back from Merkley's victory speech this morning (and a celebratory brunch with some of the staff.) We'll keep going, albeit a bit slower, until the counties are done. This morning's updates, through noon, from Multnomah County, show a net gain of 9911 votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 44,819 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 59,725 votes.

November 5, 2008 | Kari Chisholm | Comments (99 so far) Permalink: Oregonian, KGW, KOIN call it for Jeff Merkley! (Update: Merkley by 44,819 votes.)

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