Punditology: Our collective, conventional wisdom

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Well, it's the morning of Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 310 folks who participated in the 2008 Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

First, the presidential race:

More on the jump - including U.S. Senate races, the Oregon statewide races, the fight for the Oregon Legislature, and those pesky ballot measures...

Here's what you said about the national races for Congress:

Let's talk Oregon's statewide and federal races:

In Washington State:

Oregon ballot measures:

And now, the big prize in Oregon - the legislature:

To see the full results, go here. And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

  • (Show?)

    Kari - to see what this conventional wisdom tells us about the total number of seats we hold in the House after today's election, you have to run a Monte Carlo simulation. I think we'd probably get a much more accurate picture of the likely outcomes that way. Contact me if you want to learn how to do this.

  • (Show?)

    GWW -- Sure. Sounds like fun. Not today, though!

  • Hmmmmm (unverified)

    40 percent of respondents believe that Oregon Democrats will not only hold onto Ben Westlund's seat in Bend, but will pick up at least 1 seat in the State Senate. 1 in 7 believe they will pick up 2.

    Are there even active campaigns that are funded to be able to do that?

  • Bert Lowry (unverified)

    It seems to me that we are collectively pretty optimistic.

  • Chris Wain (unverified)

    Interesting data, but may not be a representative sample of voters. I'll be curious to see how closely this lines up with tonight's results

  • (Show?)

    Interesting data, but may not be a representative sample of voters.

    It doesn't even PRETEND to be a representative sample of voters. It's a collection of 310 highly-informed people making a prediction about what they think the voters will do. We may be wrong. But we're almost always right.

  • (Show?)

    If 57 passes and 61 fails (especially if it fails badly), I'm gonna be kinda peeved. I dunno about you guys, but I only voted for 57 because we were told repeatedly by our progressive leaders that this was the only way to avoid the certain tragedy of M61 going into effect. While I'm all for additional drug treatment, there are much better ways to go about it, and there are too many costly punitive measures.

    I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

  • (Show?)

    I don't care what you all say, Goche's going to win!

  • Eric Parker (unverified)

    "If 57 passes and 61 fails (especially if it fails badly), I'm gonna be kinda peeved"

    Don't worry...logically they will both fail. I would be suprised if either one passed.

  • muthu (unverified)
    <h2>This is a very interesting article.convention systems tel very nice. its having something happen.its a very nice optimistic. thanks for sharing.</h2>


    north dakota drug rehab

  • fedric lea (unverified)

    kentucky drug rehab Its nice... fedric

  • brianna (unverified)

    Hello this is Brianna visiting first time to this site and find it very interesting. I really like to join it.and really want to continue the discussion with this site..



    florida drug rehab

connect with blueoregon