“Hey Betsy, tell Ryan helping seniors offers a great return on investment and is something to be proud of 20 years from now.”

Chuck Sheketoff

Last week OPB’s Think Out Loud show delved into the budget crunch facing the Oregon legislature. Among the guests was Ryan Deckert, president of the Oregon Business Association. When asked how he and OBA decide whether the policy priority should be funding immediate needs and projects or long-term “investments” in “emerging” sectors, Deckert said it was a tough choice. Then he added (listen (MP3), starting at 37:58 – ending at 39:26)

I think it’s one of the most difficult decisions those three representatives that are in the studio today will have to face. Of how do you look at helping someone today? And there’s – it’s just the right thing to do. Representative Richardson spoke about it. Helping a senior have services – it’s the right thing to do. There’s no return on investment versus funding signature research that brings in all of these federal and private dollars and produces new companies and jobs.

"There's no return on investment." That’s an amazingly incorrect statement, especially coming from a former legislator who served six sessions (1997 through 2007), including stints as chair of the Senate Revenue Committee.

State Budget 101 teaches that long-term care programs that help seniors are part of Medicaid, which means for every dollar the state spends, about $1.70 in federal dollars flow into the Oregon economy.

ECONorthwest recently evaluated the economic impacts of those federal dollars, and the report (PDF) shows that every $1 million in state General Fund (personal and corporate income tax) dollars spent on long-term care creates 56.4 jobs and $1,162,460 in wages.

Not only is that a return on investment from helping a senior stay in long-term care, but it’s a damn good ROI.

How can I say that? Compare it to the ROI for the business and residential energy tax credit programs (BETC/RETC) that OBA and the Governor advocate preserving while long-term care programs are proposed to be slashed in the Governor's budget.

A 2007 ECONorthwest report on the credits (PDF) shows that each $1 million in General Fund dollars spent on those programs created only 16.8 jobs and $253,238 in wages.

That means state investments in long-term care bring about more than three times the jobs and more than four times the wages as investments made through BETC and RETC.

So the choice for the legislature should not be as difficult as Deckert portrayed. Basic budgetary math says helping seniors offers a high ROI.

On the same Think Out Loud show newly elected State Representative Jefferson Smith said (listen (MP3) starting at 3:31) that he hopes the legislature will

make smart budgetary choices. I’m sure there will be deep cuts. There probably will also be some modest revenue increases. And that we’ll do those in a way that maximizes economic multipliers, that minimizes pain to social justice, and that puts our state in a leading position in a global green jobs economy and hopefully we will make decisions now that we will be proud of 20 years from now.

Smith’s criteria for making the tough choices ahead are the right ones: maximizing economic multipliers and minimizing pain to social justice. Maintaining long-term care and the jobs that sector now provides has those attributes. Investing in long term care is something that Smith and other members of the 2009 Legislative Assembly will be proud of 20 years from now.

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    Chuck, I hold you in the highest regard, but isn't it somewhat misleading to suggest that the ROI for the $4 million (or whatever the final number was for 2007) that the state spent on BETC and RETC tax credits are simply job creation programs?

    Investment in alternative energy installation yields increased energy efficiency and decreased consumption over time, which will presumably also have an impact on energy prices for Oregon consumers.

    Other similar investments, such as R&D for wave energy may not yield a short-term benefit, but over the long haul, they may yield a tremendous benefit in terms of energy independence and energy security as well as help tackle global climate change.

    Ryan Deckert is not wrong to advocate for such things, IMHO.

  • Jim Edelson (unverified)
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    Chuck, just to emphasize Sid's point, the key of ETC for Oregon is direct plus indirect plus environmental effects. All of these are positive, but you only cite the direct jobs. The real indirect impact of BETC and RETC for energy efficiency is that they reduce the fossil fuel energy bills for Oregonians. A million dollars of revenue for the electric and natural gas sector produces 1.5 jobs. A million dollars of revenue in the rest of the Oregon economy produces 7.4 jobs. There is probably few better job-generating investments than reducing Oregon's consumption of fossil fuels, all of which are imported.

  • maryBeth (unverified)
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    Chuck -

    Something you didn't mention but I think is worth mentioning is that health care is the one sector in the monthly state jobs report that continues to GROW jobs in Oregon's economy right now. The report released this week showed it was the one sector that is still actually creating jobs, not shedding jobs (+1,200 jobs last month). Also, these jobs disproportionately go to women, many of them working moms! Not only is this sector labor intensive but close to two-thirds the funds going to wages are federal jobs which are pure stimulus to Oregon's economy.

    Investing in taking care of our seniors is not only the right thing to do, it is good economics RIGHT NOW in Oregon's economy. Thank you for pointing this issue is not just a human needs/quality of life issue but a powerful economic sector creating jobs in our economy.

    MB

  • Terry (unverified)
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    During his legislative tenure, Deckert was known as the "Senator from Nike" for good reason.

    I don't know enough about the economic impact of Energy Tax Credits to judge their efficacy, but I do know that investment in social services always pays long term dividends, both in jobs and in the well-being of the citizenry.

    Beyond that, it is indeed the "right thing to do."

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    Sal - according to the ECONorthwest report, the tax credits and administrative costs were $73.8 million in 2006, not the $4 million you suggest. And that's the number I used to calculate cost per $1 million in General Fund dollars.

    The "jobs" figures in both ECONorthwest studies come from a "model" (IMPLAN) that estimates direct, indirect and induced jobs. No one goes out and counts jobs. The ECONorthwest report on BETC/RETC focuses the reader on "net jobs" and those are what I used.

    The two reports, when read together, paint one of the choices that the 2008 legislature is facing -- where to spend limited General Fund resources. Prioritize BETC/RETC and maintain the growth of BETC/RETC and create 16.8 jobs per $1 million and allow long-term care to be cut, where each million dollars cut means 56.4 jobs are lost, or preserve more jobs per $1 million than would be created spending through the tax code.

    Put another way, if the legislature started with a clean slate --- what some Rs have called zero-based budgeting --- and the head of Agency E said "Give me a million and my economic model and economics consulting firm says it will create 17 jobs," and the head of Agency H said "Give me a million and the same economic model and economics consulting firm say it will create 56 jobs," which agency should get the first million?

    The suggestion by Deckert that services to seniors have no ROI sadly reflects that too many Oregonians don't understand government finance and how government plays an important role in the economy of Oregon. The comment went unchallenged by the Think Out Loud hosts. Knowing Deckert's claim was false, and not given an opportunity to respond while on the show, I went to the ECO report on long term care to be able to assign some numbers (jobs and wages) to the false claim. And that led me to the comparison with BETC/RETC, which the OBA wants to maintain or expand while long-term care is cut.

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    maryBeth, good points. But I think of it this way. Oregon's unemployment is the highest its been since 1985, and the Governor's budget will make it worse by cutting long-term care spending. At the same time he's asking for federal stimulus money he's proposing a budget that turns down federal Medicaid money for long-term care. That's why Congress should put a "maintenance of effort" requirement on any new federal Medicaid or SCHIP dollars they send to the states. Otherwise, the states may use the money for reduced Medicaid while spending money for efforts that have less positive economic impacts.

  • Ross (unverified)
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    Jim, the econorthwest study looked at both direct and indirect job creation of the credit. Sorry but from an economist's point of view, Chuck is dead on, a dollar spent on Medicaid services for seniors will do much more for jobs and the economy than a dollar of tax credits under betc and retc. This isn't opinion but the results from an economic model called implan that measures both direct and in-direct economic impacts.

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    Jim, with wind farms selling power out of state and solar manufacturers using mega power to run their silicon plants, you cannot make the generic claim that BETC/RETC "reduce the fossil fuel energy bills for Oregonians."

    And, even if you add in the ECO's estimate of jobs created by energy savings in future years, you still get twice as many jobs from long-term care investments than the spending on BETC/RETC.

    Read the ECO reports and stay on topic. Which programs according to ECO's use of IMPLAN create more jobs and more wages per $1 million in General Funds, BETC/RETC or long-term care sector programs?

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    Chuck, I grabbed the $4 million figure for the current biennium from a conference summary of the Governor's proposed budget. I assumed that the number would change in the legislative budget, but am shocked that it increased eighteen-fold in the final budget.

    Here's the document I pulled the figure from:

    http://www.harvestcleanenergy.org/conference/HCE7/PDFs/Vanthof.pdf

  • Jef Green, PR Director - Oregon Business Association (unverified)
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    Although Chuck's post mischaracterizes Ryan's statement, it does provide an opportunity to make a good point.

    Ryan was asked by the moderator - about "one of OBA's initiatives this session is to fund the Oregon Innovation Agenda" - which is a collaboration of university research centers focused on Oregon's unique leadership in sustainability, nano-science, wave technology and drug discovery.

    ONAMI, Oregon's first signature research center (funded in 2003) successfully leveraged $10 - for every $1 of state investment and already commercialized 7 new start up companies. In the last U.S. federal budget, two university centers were given a line item for distinction in nanotechnology research - MIT and ONAMI (in Corvallis).

    Now to Chuck's statement... what Ryan said was that these are really difficult choices - investing in long-term economic development initiatives that grow income and revenue for individuals and the state vs. funding immediate obligations to our citizens (which are the right thing to do - and agreed will leverage federal dollars).

    Ryan also pointed out that the three state representatives don't have the luxury of the federal government - they must make the choices today and balance the state budget.

    Not sure why Chuck picked OBA as his protagonist in this narrative. Take a look at OBA's Legislative Agenda.

    Name another business group in the country lobbying to increase state revenue (raising the corporate minimum and eliminating the "Kicker" - again) to fund critical investments in education, health care and a sustainable transportation package.

    OBA is a organization dedicated solely to making Oregon a great place to live and work - that means a strong economy and balanced public policy. There is no arguing with that and there is no arguing that tough choices are going to be made in Salem during this economic downturn.

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    Sal,

    I'm not sure what Van't Hoff was referring to - perhaps it was an (under)estimate of the revenue impacts of the cost of the Governor's expansion proposal. In any event, BETC is costing us 248 percent more this biennium than last biennium ($68.6 million vs. $19.7 million), and 560 percent more (almost seven-fold) what it cost in 1999-01.

    Next bienniun, according to the Tax Expenditure Report, BETC will cost $143.8 million, more than double what it is costing this budget cycle, a 110 percent increase from this biennium, to almost fourteen times (1,283 percent) what it cost in 1999-01.

    How many "on budget" programs are projected to double in cost in the Governor's budget absent a new revenue source to pay for them?

  • Jack Coleman (unverified)
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    Chuck, As you point out in your comments, it is always far easier to "spend" money in the revenue committee vs. the ways and means committee. What I mean is that tax credits and tax expenditures rarely get the scrutiny that line item budgets get in the ways and means committee.

    You are correct, absolutely no state programs would ever be allowed to grow at the rate the BETC program is growing if it were a direct expenditure as opposed to a tax expenditure.

    The other dirty little secret of this program is that many of the tax credits are being bought and sold to banks and other wealthy individuals basically like an unregulated commodity. Most developers and investors already have incentives to build/buy energy efficient buildings because they have lower long term operating costs. The tax credit (or the ability to sell the tax credit) is just a little bonus, kind of like a cherry on top. It is not driving green building practices, Lower on-going energy and operating costs is driving green building not the BETC tax credit program.

  • Jim Edelson (unverified)
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    Chuck and Ross,

    Thanks both for misquoting me; I did expect better here.

    If you read my real citation, I was not referring to BETC for renewable projects - that is not up for expansion this year. I was referring to BETC/RETC for energy efficiency which is up for expansion this year. But Chuck in his off-topic tirade did not mention one energy efficiency example. Oh well.

    And, back to my point, spending money on reducing energy consumption does provide more jobs than buying wind power generated in Oregon, which again does provide more jobs than importing fuel from out-of-state or overseas. I have not seen any direct comparison that spending state money on energy efficiency provides less or more jobs, direct + indirect, than spending on social services.

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    <h2>Jack Coleman is absolutely correct. I started my public interest career writing about the virtues of energy conservation in 1976. Then and now it makes dollars and sense. The extent of the subsidies under BETC and RETC would never survive the Ways and Means process, which almost always demands means-tested programs and demonstration of need for public dollars. Better they devote the tens of millions of dollars helping low-income families meet their energy needs.</h2>

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