I ♥ New York . . . <del>Economists</del> <em>Times</em> (The Sequel)

Chuck Sheketoff

Just before the Christmas break, I blogged about the hundred-plus New York economists who wrote to their governor rejecting his cut services-first approach to balancing the state budget. They argued that such a move would exacerbate the economic downturn while harming vulnerable New Yorkers. A better option, they said, would be to raise taxes on those with high incomes. They noted the important role that government plays in the state economy and that state government spending is crucial to turn around the recession.

Yesterday, The New York Times elevated the “raise taxes, don’t cut services first” argument to the national level. The Times’ editorial (PDF) was addressed to the incoming Obama administration, urging it to stick to its campaign promise to raise taxes on the richest Americans:

[N]ot all tax increases are damaging in a recession. An increase could help if it raised more in revenue than it subtracted in consumption and if that revenue was used for stimulus.

That sounds like the very definition of a tax increase for the richest Americans. The wealthy are unlikely to slow their consumption much if their income tax rates return — as Mr. Obama has proposed — to their pre-Bush levels (an increase from rates of 33 and 35 percent to 36 and 39.6 percent).

The Times rejected the “conventional wisdom that raising any taxes during a downturn is wrong,” acknowledging that its view “is hard to explain and easy to demagogue.” Still, it argued, “the fight for tax fairness” should trump those concerns.

As the Times noted, stimulus spending is and should be front and center, but “the nation needs far more tax revenue, generated more progressively,” as well.

The need to raise revenue to avoid slashing services and to maintain government spending in the economy is even more important for states like Oregon that, unlike the federal government, cannot run a budget deficit.

Make no mistake about it. Addressing Oregon’s revenue shortfall with smart revenue solutions is the most pressing issue that the 2009 Oregon Legislative Assembly will face.

Let’s hope Governor Kulongoski and our lawmakers read the Sunday New York Times.

  • billy (unverified)
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    The Times rejected the “conventional wisdom that raising any taxes during a downturn is wrong,” acknowledging that its view “is hard to explain and easy to demagogue.”

    JK WOW, what an idea - repeat the mistakes of the 1930s.

    A number of economists now think that most things that the government did back then only prolonged the depression and that it was Tojo that really pulled us out.

    So far, this time, the government had the good sense to be sure most bank depositors did loose their life savings. That prevented runs on the banks and much more collapse. Can anyone explain why banks were allowed to loose depositors’s money in the thirties? (Years earlier, the Bank of England was preventing bank failures.)

    thanks JK

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    Billy/JK perpetuate a myth promoted on Fox News that the New Deal was prolonged by FDR's New Deal. Just as there probably "a number of scientists" who think aliens landed in Roswell New Mexico one could probably find "a number of economists" who think the New Deal prolonged the Depression -- that doesn't mean its true!

    See David Sirota's article in Salon

  • Dave (unverified)
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    For the life of me, I can never understand why New Deal-haters always seem to fall back on the claim that it was WWII that pulled us out of the recession (as Billy, above, does).

    Isn't it obvious that gov't action during the war period -- massive deficit spending, an industrial policy, etc. -- was the New Deal on steroids?

    As economist Dean Baker recently wrote:

    "Roosevelt was too worried about the whining of the anti-stimulus crowd that he confronted. He remained concerned about balancing the budget when the proper goal of fiscal policy should have been large deficits to stimulate the economy. Roosevelt's policies substantially reduced the unemployment rate from the 25 percent peak when he first took office, but they did not get the unemployment rate back into single digits.

    "It took the enormous public spending associated with World War II to fully lift the economy out of the depression. The lesson that economists take away from this experience is that we should be prepared to run very large deficits in order to give the economy a sufficient boost to generate self-sustaining growth."

  • Zarathustra (unverified)
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    Posted by: Dave | Jan 6, 2009 12:04:41 PM

    For the life of me, I can never understand why New Deal-haters always seem to fall back on the claim that it was WWII that pulled us out of the recession (as Billy, above, does).

    You can make a strong case for the contrary, that FDR's social agenda survived in spite of wartime economic pressures. LBJ largely failed because he couldn't balance the Great Society with the Viet Nam war. It's a moot point. Obama doesn't seemed poised to do anything like FDR.

  • billy (unverified)
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    Chuck Sheketoff: Billy/JK perpetuate a myth promoted on Fox News that the New Deal was prolonged by FDR's New Deal. Just as there probably "a number of scientists" who think aliens landed in Roswell New Mexico one could probably find "a number of economists" who think the New Deal prolonged the Depression -- that doesn't mean its true! JK: Nothing like a reply consisting entirely of ad hominian attacks - shows that you have no facts on your side.

    Lets actually look at some facts:

    Are you claiming that Smoot-Holly shortened the depression?

    Are you claiming that letting the banks fail and loose depositors’s money helped shorten the depression?

    Are you claiming that the September 1931 Fed, hike in its discount rate helped shorten the depression?

    Are you claiming that the Revenue Act of 1932. The largest tax increase in peacetime history helped shorten the depression?

    Are you claiming that Roosevelt’s devaluing the dollar by 40 percent helped shorten the depression?

    Are you claiming that passage of the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which levied a new tax on agricultural processors and used the revenue for the destruction of crops and livestock and paying farmers for not working helped to shorten the depression?

    I could go on, but you get the idea. (Thanks to Great Myths of the Great Depression for a number of facts used above.)

    Thanks JK

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    JK's chief source of his misinformation -- the Mackinac Center for Public Policy -- is the largest state-level conservative "think tank" in the country -- Cascade Policy Institute's biggest sibling. They are funded by large corporations and conservative foundations. The Mackinac Center was created in large part to oppose "government intervention" in public policy debates.

  • Zarathustra (unverified)
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    Using Mussolini's definition that fascism is the union of corporate and State interests, JK's brand of "libertarianism" is better thought of as "fascibertariansim". They only want complete government non-interference so that corporations can have unfettered access. That's why real libertarians bristle at his rhetoric. The goal is anti-libertarian. That and the fact that he always works backward from an a priori conclusion, which is also antithetical of libertarian thinking.

  • billy (unverified)
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    Chuck Sheketoff: JK's chief source of his misinformation -- the Mackinac Center for Public Policy -- is the largest state-level conservative "think tank" in the country -- Cascade Policy Institute's biggest sibling. They are funded by large corporations and conservative foundations. The Mackinac Center was created in large part to oppose "government intervention" in public policy debates. JK: Are you incapable of anything except ad hominian attacks?

    I used that paper as a list of claimed facts, not opinion or analysis. Did you find that any of the stated facts were wrong?

    Are you trying to say that Smoot-Holly didn’t exist? Are you trying to say that banks didn’t fail and loose depositors’s money? Are you trying to say that the September 1931 Fed rate hike in its discount rate didn’t happen? Are you trying to say that Revenue Act of 1932 didn’t happen? Are you trying to say that it wasn’t the largest tax increase in peacetime history? Are you trying to say that Roosevelt didn’t devalue the dollar by 40 percent? Are you trying to say that the Agricultural Adjustment Act didn’t exist? Are you trying to say that it didn’t levy a new tax on agricultural processors and used the revenue for the destruction of crops and livestock and paying farmers for not working helped to shorten the depression?

    If the facts are indeed wrong, let me know so I can give the report’s writers a hard time (I don’t like being lied to by either these people or Al Gore - do you?)

    Conversely, if the facts are mainly correct, I await your fact based answer.

    I am beginning to learn a lesson here - I thought the ad hominians were a mark of the climate change believers. It is starting to look like it is a wider amongst the progressives.

    Thanks JK

  • mp97303 (unverified)
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    The Progressivity of the Tax System

    Lowest quintile: 4.3 percent Second quintile: 9.9 percent Middle quintile: 14.2 percent Fourth quintile: 17.4 percent Percentiles 81-90: 20.3 percent Percentiles 91-95: 22.4 percent Percentiles 96-99: 25.7 percent Percentiles 99.0-99.5: 29.7 percent Percentiles 99.5-99.9: 31.2 percent Percentiles 99.9-99.99: 32.1 percent Top 0.01 Percentile: 31.5 percent

    These figures include all federal taxes, not just income taxes.

    source

    Of course, we can always tax the rich some more can't we.

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    Coming late, but for the record, most if not all of the items cited by JK @ Jan 7, 2009 5:31:49 AM occurred under Hoover. Roosevelt's inauguration was March 1933.

    Smoot Hawley (note correct spelling) -- June 17, 1930 September 1931 Fed, hike in its discount rate -- Sept 1931 Revenue Act of 1932 -- 1932

    letting the banks fail and loose [sic] depositors’s money -- This was much more characteristic of Hoover's policy than Roosevelt's and most bank failures in the period preceded Roosevelt. FDIC, one of the crucial first act, massively cut runs on banks and failures related to them. N.B. too that the current "free market" conventional wisdom about failing banks is -- wait for it -- let them fail.

    Roosevelt’s devaluing the dollar by 40 percent -- Clearly Roosevelt's. On the face of it, this seems in part to be an offset of the tariff, in effect if not intent. How is it supposed to have worsened or prolonged the Depression?

    <h2>Agricultural Adjustment Act -- Not primarily aimed at the depression per se, but at limiting the rapid extrusion of farmers from the land (still over 30% of population, not counting other rural residents tied to farm economy). In rural America the Depression actually had started in the mid-1920s. Allowing "free" markets to continue to drive people off the land in conditions of massive urban unemployment was not going to help the Depression, but certainly would have exacerbated social tensions and conflict.</h2>

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