Poll: It still sucks to be a Republican in the Oregon Governor's race

Carla Axtman

Yup (Jeff Mapes):

The survey was taken for the Portland Tribune and Fox 12 News by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. It shows Kitzhaber with 43 percent to 23 percent for Atkinson. In a matchup with Alley, Kitzhaber leads, 46 percent to 21 percent.

GOP candidate John Lim is missing from this poll, but if I had to bet my lunch money I'd say he's probably in the teens against Kitz, at best.

Newly minted Democratic challenger Bill Bradbury is also missing from this survey.

That "R" is definitely an anvil right now.

  • Bear Wilner-Nugent (unverified)
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    < Nelson>

    Haw haw!

    < /Nelson>

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    I'm not sure my take on the poll is as enthusiastic as yours. Jason Atkinson is relatively unknown, and I have my doubts that Allen Alley is that much better known, even though he has run statewide down the ballot. Kitzhaber, on the other hand, is a former two-term governor of the state whose name recognition has to be fairly high. Under those circumstances, conventional wisdom would say that Kitzhaber's number is substantially closer to the ceiling than it is to the floor. I say this as someone who would enthusiastically support Kitzhaber in the Democratic primary and in the general election.

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    I'm not sure how much you can make of this kind of poll so early in the election cycle. As Hibbitts pointed out, the wide disparity is probably due to the fact that the name recognition for both of the Republicans is very low.

    However, I disagree that Kitzhaber's numbers represent a ceiling rather than a floor. Either he or Peter DeFazio will be a strong favorite in the general election, should DeFazio also announce.

  • Greg D. (unverified)
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    To use a favorite quote from the Portland Meadows announcer, Kitz wins by three lengths going away. If DeFazio is crazy enough to give up a safe Congressional seat to run for Oregon gov. against Kitz, that would prove to me that Peter is insane and therefore not worthy of my vote. Unless Gordo emerges from the shadows to run against Kitz, this race is history and it is time to move on to something interesting to talk about.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Given the title of this post, I should mention that a Republican friend of mine thinks the only chance Republicans have winning statewide office in the near future (either Gov. or AG) would be Max Williams or Lane Shetterly.

    Greg, don't sell Oregonians short. It would be fascinating to see Kitzhaber, Bradbury, DeFazio debating the future of this state. Politics in this state is stale and needs mixing up a bit. Too often caucus leadership has been setting the agenda as often as any indiv. legislator or statewide elected official.

    To see those 3 arguing the future of this state (budget, kicker, tax reform, items in the Public Comm. on the Legislature report, ballot measures passed in the 1990s--should they be re-examined?

    Those who were teenagers when Measure 11 passed may well be working parents by now. It really is a new generation--those born the year Measure 5 passed (debate back then--who was elected Gov. that year--Barbara Roberts or Measure 5?) were old enough to vote in 2008.

    So Peter has the right to make whatever decision he chooses. If Congress (even with a large Dem. majority) has lost its charm and he wants to take the gamble of running for Gov. and perhaps ending up out of office altogether, then I say Go For It! Give many of us the intelligent primary debate we crave, without campaign tricks and attacks. These are 3 accomplished men with roots from the area south of Corvallis. Let's see if they can show the whole state how an intelligent 36 county strategy is done.

  • mp97303 (unverified)
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    Shouldn't the title be: "It still sucks to be an Oregonian with this Oregon Governor's race"

    Anyone out there with an original thought want to lead this state???

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    Both Republicans suffer greatly from lack of name value. That Kitz is under 50 should be the takeaway here--I don't think he's necessarily as well known as many assume; he was leaving office as I got here, and a whole lot of folks have shown up in the interim. I don't think the "sure, why not, he kicked ass for us last time" vibe is necessarily all that strong right now.

    On the plus side, if Atkinson and Alley have room to move up with time, so does Kitz once he gets his machine going.

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    One of the bigger obstacles facing the Republicans is that the Constitution Party, which frequently draws 5 percent or more of the most conservative vote in statewide races, has to run a candidate for Governor in the November election in order to maintain statewide ballot access.

    In fact, either the Constitution Party or the Libertarians have given the Democrats their margin of victory in the 2002 Governor's race and in the 2008 Senate race.

    On the left, it seems likely that both the Working Families Party and the Greens will have to do the same, but neither has demonstrated a history of drawing significant votes (though Ashley Albies did very well in the 2008 AG's race)

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    The comments above are right, Alley and Atkinson's poll numbers right now are a reflecion of name ID, not some perceived drag on the ticket with their being Republicans. If that were the problem, you would expect Kitzhaber to be above 50%. Instead, the large number of undecideds suggest these folks are willing to vote for a Republican, they just don't know anything about Alley or Atkinson right now.

    It would be more revealing if they had also had match-ups with Bradbury versus Alley and Atkinson. i'm guessing Bradbury's numbers would have been even lower than Kitzhzaber's, while Alley's and Atkinson's would have remained about the same.

    Alley and Atkinson both need the same things to close the gap: money and message. I hope they spend at least as much time on the latter as they do on the former.

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    Well...

    Looking at this from a name ID POV, as Alley and Atkinson are pulling in the low 20s...those numbers are probably what any GOPer would garner. Low 20s is not good at all. It's a big hole to start from.

    I wouldn't expect Kitz to be pulling over 50 this early, either. As it stands, there appears to be a lot of "I don't know" folks..but the chance that they'll all go running to Atkinson/Alley don't seem especially high.

    And that's really what would have to happen for them to overcome the numbers we're looking at right now.

  • Jason (unverified)
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    Carla,

    You really seem to enjoy writing about the ills of the Republican Party and pouring salt in the wound. Glad you have something to brighten your day.

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    Jason..I do hope it's brightening yours. :)

    On the serious side, I've written repeatedly that I think it's crucial that the GOP get its shit together. It's much better for progressives to have a strong and not-crazy opposition party in their midst.

  • poisoned plasma donor (unverified)
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    Three plasma donors lived under Joan Wagar’( A,K,A, Mrs Dash ) roof when she finally admitted she’s a poisoner! Now why are you hiding a body double in your denial letter for? Mrs Dash?

    http://portland.indymedia.org/.....2020.shtml

    It’s a great responsibility to report a crime the Authority’s don’t want reported!

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    Jack Roberts sez: "[T]he large number of undecideds suggest these folks are willing to vote for a Republican, they just don't know anything about Alley or Atkinson right now."

    Yo Jack, I suspect that when they get to know more about Atkinson's allegiance to the "Christian" base of the party, they'll be even less inclined to vote for him. This ain't Alabama. And Alley is unlikely to win the nomination without pandering to the same crowd. I guess instead of walking around Oregon, he should have gone from one wingnut church to another, handling snakes, speaking in tongues, and swearing fealty to Lord Rushbo.

  • WI take great enjoyment in GOP failure (unverified)
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    "Carla,

    You really seem to enjoy writing about the ills of the Republican Party and pouring salt in the wound. Glad you have something to brighten your day."

    Why shouldn't progressives get enjoyment out of Republican failure? Generally when the GOP has been doing well, America hasn't. We generally believe you have bad ideas and poor values. Conservative failure is a good thing. Good things make us happy. Is there something wrong with knowing that the welfare of the planet is safer when the Republicans are out of power? There's good reason that old white men are about he only demographic Republican's are holding onto. They deserve to be a weak minority party and progressive should be happy about that.

  • Unrepentant Liberal (unverified)
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    I think the polling numbers show that the republican party really needs to come up with some new ideas and a new approach to campaigning; give the voters something besides the anti-government, anti-tax, anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-environment, pro-takeover of government by conservative Christians message.

    In other words, they need to act like sane, responsible grownups.

  • KenRay (unverified)
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    I have to really take issue with a theme that I have seen repeated on this blog and others of its ilk.

    Republicans are not "anti-immigration".

    I am a Republican, and have been one ever since I noticed that the Democratic party had slid left out from under my feet years ago. I know hundreds of Republicans, I daresay more than most of you on this blog who seem to form their caricatured opinion of Republicans from the hard-left parts of the media. I don't know any Republican that is against legal immigration.

    Now I will explain this so thoroughly that even "progressive bloggers" will understand it: Republicans are not anti-immigration. We are against ILLEGAL immigration.

    The left has been very clever in making sure to leave the word illegal out of their description of Republicans. Or 'undocumented' or what ever euphemism you feel compelled to use that still means 'against the law'.

  • Scott in Damascus (unverified)
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    "Republicans are not anti-immigration. We are against ILLEGAL immigration."

    Ummmm Gordon Smith and the entire executive team at Smith Foods would disagree with you.

  • Ed Bickford (unverified)
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    KR, wake up! You are picking nits when there is a snake attached to your ankle.

  • WovenHands (unverified)
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    anti-government, anti-tax, anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-environment, pro-takeover of government by conservative Christians message.

    While this might work if you're talking about, oh, I don't know, Frm. Sen. Santorum or Frm. Gov. Huckabee... but neither of those two are running for governor of Oregon.

    If we look at the two prominent Republicans who are running for Governor, you'd be able to see that such typical and much rehashed viewpoints do not apply as much in this instance.

    I would encourage you to research the two mentioned Republicans, Mr. Alley and Sen. Atkinson, before making such blanket statements.

    This is a statement which Alley gave at the end of this 400 mile walk across Oregon, during a speech at Waterfront Park...

    "Without jobs, without careers with meaning for our citizens, all of our aspirations of sustainable economic leadership are hollow...It is easy to be sustainable when there is no industry. It is easy to be sustainable when the entire state is a park. Anyone can do that. Our challenge is to show the world how to have economic prosperity and do it in harmony with our environment. That is a challenge worthy of Oregon."

    That to me, anyways, is a bit of honesty. And I've seen Alley give a number of speeches, and not once has he mentioned the social conservative agenda. I've seen him personally rebuff a pro-lifer. And he sees small government (which, by the way, is different than anti-government) as the best means for ,economic prosperity. Not once has Alley mentioned illegal immigration, or being against any manner of human rights. And small government also doesn't make room for government takeover by this far Christian right you fear so much. Oh, and anti-tax? Perhaps you've never been a small business owner, but I've known quite a few. And in this instance, I'd have to agree with Capt. Malcolm Reynolds from Firefly... "Government's just designed to get in a man's way." I doubt we'd be in the economic shape we're in if this state tried to be a bit more on the side of the private job creators instead of handing that prestigious duty over to the government.

    And on the subject of gay rights, I'd like to suggest fighting based on the 14th Amendment rather than assuming gay's weren't equal humans to begin with. I can see how that might be a bit demeaning to a gay or lesbian person to have learned they were not on equal standing with your or me prior to that.

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    None the less, it's intellectually sloppy and also inaccurate to characterize opposition to illegal immigration as opposition to all immigration.

    My wife, for example is an immigrant from Trinidad. She and her family spent years going through the process of becoming legal US citizens, and as a Democrat and a progressive, I resent people who's line cutting and cheating of the system is somehow considered to be OK.

  • Gerald (unverified)
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    Immigration numbers, both legal and illegal are too high to be sustainable.

    A friend allowed a pregnant couple from Germany to stay at her home until their baby was born just so they could get an American birth certificate for their newborn. Then return to Germany.

    Mexican women in labor wade across the Rio Grande to have their babies for free (legally, they can't be turned away) in Texas hospitals and get an American birth certificate for their babies.

    The goal of this practice is to bring entire families into the USA through chain migration. Our government does not check to see if a family member being brought in through chain migration is in fact a family member. The anticipated number of family members who follow each immigrant totals 40.

    Getting American birth certificates this way takes advantage of our archaic, largely un-enforced immigration laws. Even during this economic downturn, H1-B and H2-B visa holders are being brought into the country and given jobs. Little oversight is given to overstayed visas. Although this isn't evident close in Portland, a trip to the Beaverton or Hillsboro Costco is an eye-opening experience.

    When you add our expected population growth from all these newcomers plus our internal population growth, then try to picture that size population, we're venturing into India's territory, population-wise.

    Portland's urban growth boundary will need to accommodate another one million people in the next 20 years. Currently Portland's population is around a half million. Another one million is two more Portlands. And it's crowded now.

    These numbers will squeeze us and trample our environment. We need to take a step back, review the impact of all immigration and decide what we want our country to look like.

  • robi (unverified)
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    someone need a wakeup call here.

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