Election Day 2009: What I'll be watching
Kari Chisholm
It's election day across America - but not in Oregon. [Update: As noted in the comments, there were some local measures in Oregon, but nothing that really rises to the level of state or national interest.] Let's preview a bit.
The national pundits are paying close attention to governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia and the NY-23 congressional race. Republicans will argue that wins in those places will mean they're back, baby!
But remember that Virginia and NY-23 are Republican places, and NJ Gov. Corzine has been in trouble because he's a former CEO of Goldman Sachs in the midst of a financial meltdown caused by big Wall Street firms (and NJ tends to be a swing state in their internal state politics.)
Here's what I'm paying attention to:
- In Washington State, they've got a couple of bombshell ballot measures. I-1033 is a TABOR measure, similar to the one we beat here in 2006 (measure 48), but 2006 is a very different environment than 2009. I'll look to that outcome to see if Northwest voters really are rejecting a progressive approach to government, as the righties would have us believe.
- Referendum 71 is a referendum of Washington's "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law. In Oregon, Basic Rights Oregon is taking the first steps to repeal Measure 36 and legalize gay marriage, perhaps as soon as 2012. Even though Oregon already has a domestic partnership law, R-71 will show whether the anti-gay forces have much clout in the Northwest.
- And in Maine, anti-gay activists are trying to repeal a gay-marriage law signed by the Governor. If gay-marriage advocates win, it'll be the first time that voters anywhere in America will have voted to support gay marriage. Of course, it's also the first time that voters have had a chance to vote on a gay-marriage law passed by legislature (rather than implemented via the courts.)
- Finally, in California, there's a special election for Congress in a district, CA-10, that's a lot like OR-1 - a swing district with a mix of suburban high-tech office parks and exurban rural places. Why it's not getting more attention, I don't know. But I'll look there to catch a hint of whether David Wu might face a tougher political environment in 2010 than in previous cycles.
Of course, as CA-10 Democratic candidate Lt. Gov John Garamendi noted, "The United States is a very, very big place and very diverse. To assume that what happens in one congressional district out of 500-plus congressional districts is somehow indicative of what's going on in the United States is a significant leap in rational logic."
Nonetheless, I'll be paying attention.
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6:44 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
A couple thoughts:
What will the NY23 race say about anything? Since the R dropped out, I think the right wing candidates chances of winning are slim. If they do, I would actually worry at least a little. Also, I'd hope California's Lt. Gov and any congressional candidate would know how many congressional districts there are.
6:44 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
In the NY special congressional election that seat has been held by Republicans for 138 years. The effort to make these elections appear to be a referendum on Obama's presidency is a mask for the continuing weakness of the Republican Party and of their real fear a third party may emerge. A fear that seems to be well founded.
Nov 3, '09
From hearing about NY23 last night on NPR and KPOJ, it seems to me almost a referendum on whether the GOP is going to go with a "wing-nuts only need apply" strategy. Palin and the tea-baggers basically chased the moderate out of the race and into endorsing the Democrat. If the Dem loses, I suspect they'll be emboldened to continue to kick anyone with a brain out of "their" party. (Not that there's many left, of course.) This would give us some pretty scary candidates, some of which could win locally and regionally, but would limit the GOP to the fringe 20% nationally. (Which will be bad news for corporatists who want the GOP to remain a viable vehicle for pursuing their interests. Remember "Compassionate Conservatives?" Fool me once shame on me. Fool me twice, uh... we won't get fooled again?)
7:27 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Kari~
Great post!
I've been really bored by the lack of insight that the major papers have brought on this election cycle.
Score another point for the bloggers who know what they're writing about!
Nov 3, '09
”...but would limit the GOP to the fringe 20% nationally. (Which will be bad news for corporatists who want the GOP to remain a viable vehicle for pursuing their interests.”
Funny, I’d say the corporatists on Wall Street have been doing just fine this last year with the Dems in power
And with the release of the House’s Health Bill the big insurance corporations will be looking at a rosy future also.
7:40 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Jesse, great note on Garamendi's "500-plus" comment! Ha!
As for NY-23, I am not so sanguine. I expect the Conservative Party candidate to win. Not only is it a solid R district (and he's now got the backing of the entire GOP establishment) but NY has a long history with the Conservative and Liberal Party organizations. Because they have fusion voting, people there are used to voting for those third-party candidates.
Nov 3, '09
No matter what the outcome the repub party and the media will paint it as "Fantastically all good" for the republicans just like they did in '06 and 08'. After all, republicans and the media- it's the same thing.
8:16 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
I think Kari has it right about the NY-23 race.
I'm not sure that this is an endorsement of the conservative position in that district, so much as a referendum on the ability of either major partiy to deal with the major issues of the day. After all, Hoffman is running as much as an outsider as he is a conservative, and THAT is the key to his support among independents in the district.
The interesting thing about this election is that like most midterm elections, public support for the party in control has eroded substantially, but we have not seen any corresponding increase in support for the party out of power. Whereas 42 percent of the public have positive feelings about the Democrats, only only 25 percent feel positive about the Republicans.
By comparion, 46 percent of Americans support the creation of a new "independent party" (30 percent oppose), and 45 percent now call themselves "independent" of both major political parties (compared with 30 percent Democratic and 17 percent Republican).
Source: NBC News/WSJ poll
8:22 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
From hearing about NY23 last night on NPR and KPOJ
Okay, that's your first problem.
Largely unreported is the fact that much of the revolt in CD 23 in New York is that there was no primary and the party leaders picked a nominee well to the left of the party base.
Sort of reminds me of the some of the posts here about the appointment process for legislative vacancies. The Palins, Limbaughs, etc. didn't jump on the Huffman bandwagon until his polls showed some real traction. Scozzafava wasn't chased out of the race by the rightwingers but by her own pathetic poll numbers. It was the voters, not the conservative pundits, who did her in.
8:23 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Since the R dropped out, I think the right wing candidates chances of winning are slim. If they do, I would actually worry at least a little.
Hoffman has a double digits lead over Owen in the polls. Granted, there's a high number of undecideds due to Scoffaza dropping out, but they're likely to break for Hoffman over Owens. As Kari noted, the general agreement is that Hoffman will easily win.
Nov 3, '09
I agree with most of what Kari has written about the seats in NY and VA, and the troubles of Corzine. However, given the investment that Obama has personally made in the Corzine race, it would be hard not to view an unfavorable democrat outcome as at least a partial reflection on the president's loss of personal appeal, especially in a safe D seat. It would be similar to his effort to bring the Olympics to Chicago. Even if it was never going to happen, when he invests himself personally into a race or decision or an outcome...as president, he gets credit (or blame) for the result. We all know that's just the way the game is played, but that loss of prestige can continue to have deletrious effects both on the policy front and the campaign trail in the months to come.
Nov 3, '09
First of all, despite all the blue imagination, being consevative is not fringe.
You can't even get that basic element before piling on the rest of your confusion.
And this???? "After all, republicans and the media- it's the same thing."
Yeah, Ok.
8:40 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
I've watched these races for awhile, myself.
Frankly, I don't expect the Democrats (with the possible exception of Corzine) to do very well in candidate races today. Deeds has been HORRIBLE--the guy even waffled on the public option. The Democrat in NY-23 is a Blue Dog. When you run as GOP/Conservative-lite, it can be pretty tough to win.
I think the Maine gay marriage vote is going to be really close...and so might Washington..but not for the same reasons. Maine voters still seem torn on the issue. Washington voters seem confused about their ballots and which way they should vote to maintain gay marriage.
I-1033 (TABOR) in Washington will also be close, but I think it will be defeated.
Nov 3, '09
Good Post. I am confused, however by two items:
I didn't understand the reference to Wall Street, "....NJ tends to be a swing state in their internal state politics." Could you explain, please.
I don't see how the California Special election will say much with the district having 18% more Dems registered than Reps. Is Oregon's OR-1 similar in registrations?
Tom
Nov 3, '09
Maine also has a TABOR measure. This is the second time it's been tried, and it failed a couple years ago. I believe it's Measure 4.
9:48 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Seattle and Vancouver Mayoral races are also fascinating. And OLCV will be watching the Tigard Parks and Recreation Bond, and the Lincoln City Council race.
As a side note, Arizona did defeat a gay marriage ban in 2006.
10:21 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Evan -- Arizona voters voted against banning gay marriage. That's similar, but not the same as voting to enact gay marriage into law.
Nov 3, '09
Tom V. is right.b And OR-1 will depend at least in part on the quality of the candidates running.
Say what you will about Wu, it is hard to beat any incumbent with a candidate people don't know/ like /respect---and there is very little margin for error on those last 2 points. I know that from working to unseat an incumbent and what happened the years the candidates lost.
10:28 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Dan and Tom Vail ask about my assertion that New Jersey is a swing state internally.
While it's been fairly safe at the presidential level, when it comes to gubernatorial races - it swings back and forth.
Tom Kean (R) was elected in 1981 and served two terms. Then, Jim Florio (D) was elected in 1989 and served one term. He was defeated by Christie Todd Whitman (R) in 1993, who served most of two terms (and was then appointed to the EPA.) After a series of acting Governors, Jim McGreevey (D) won in 2001. He then resigned in 2004. Jon Corzine (D) was elected in 2005.
So, while there's been a lot of turmoil there, it's basically flipped back and forth. A Democratic Governor hasn't been re-elected in New Jersey since the 1970s.
10:37 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
King County (Seattle area) is also electing the head of their County board. it's a race between someone with decent progressive creds (from what i understand; Constantine) and a conservative who would open up mineral extraction and development and is not friendly to unions. both support R-71, a good sign.
like all other votes today, this is, of course, A Referendum On Obama (cue dramatic CNN-style music & graphics)
Nov 3, '09
Evan -- Arizona voters voted against banning gay marriage. That's similar, but not the same as voting to enact gay marriage into law.
Also, the ballot title of the AZ campaign would have had the tranactional effect of restricted the rights of heterosexual non-married couples. Part of the campaign was to explicitly make the case that a voter could oppose gay marriage and yet vote no on that amendment, given the unintended consequences of the poorly drafted measure.
I came very close to taking a position with the campaign but instead opted to stay here and help the governor.
Nov 3, '09
You're going to hear your base call "fraud" on hope and change.
Simple people think simply. You've not got health care done. That was a must for the cycle. No doubt, Reps will say they did well. Both will miss the fact that it will actually be Dems doing poorly. Watch the ballot measures too. TEA wins don't mean they're taking electoral share. It means YOUR people are disgusted with foot dragging, flip-flopping, watering down, and outright fraud from the Democratic Party leadership.
11:41 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Incidentally, there was a lot of blather earlier about whether Measures 66 and 67 - having been passed by the legislature and signed by the governor - should have been a "yes" vote to approve, or a "yes" vote to overturn. Ultimately, the legislature decided to leave things as they are traditionally done - a yes vote to approve.
I'll simply note that in Maine, they do things the opposite way. The legislature passed and the governor signed the civil marriage law. Today, voters will vote on Question 1. If they agree with civil marriage, they'll vote no to reject the "people's veto". If they disagree, they'll vote yes to accept the "people's veto".
11:41 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
p.s. As I've said many times before, we shouldn't have Yes and No votes. Instead, it should be Option A and Option B.
Nov 3, '09
"After all, republicans and the media- it's the same thing."
You forgot to add "democrats". You're all media whores and nation wreckers!
11:59 a.m.
Nov 3, '09
Jack,
I don't dispute that appointments don't always reflect who would win in a primary, but I think you are overstating the appeal of Mr. Hoffman as it relates to the district. I come from upstate NY and I am dubious that someone that far to the right and so disconnected from the district would win in a straight up general election that is not a special low-turn out election.
Scozzafava was elected from about half the district as a state legislator and was considered somewhat to the right of the state Republican legislators. While Hoffman may well win today, he will have to spend a lot to defend it next November in a district that should be a Republican lock. Frankly this is a case of the Republican party abandoning their candidate and never giving her the resources to win.
12:00 p.m.
Nov 3, '09
Good luck tonight in Maine, Washington State, and Michigan. I'm optimistic, but still holding my breath.
And, as for health care, I don't see the Republicans in D.C. lifting a finger to do anything other than to malign and misrepresent the well-intentioned efforts.
Nov 3, '09
The New York election and party confusion between Repig, Dem and Indy confirms my personal belief developed since November of 2008 that identified party affiliations don't mean squat anymore. Our "60 Seat Majority" in the US Senate is a joke. Montana Max and his buddies would appear to be much more comfortable at a Klan rally than at a progressive event to protect individual freedom. Democrat my ass.
2:13 p.m.
Nov 3, '09
John, in the early going, Scozzafava had a lot of money and most of the endorsements and party organization on her side. My sense is that Hoffman largely built his own momentum and that's what started to attract endorsements (althought Newt remained with Scozzafava).
While Palin got most of the national publicity, Pawlenty also endorsed Hoffman and--perhaps the killer--so finally did George Pataki. But those last two end endorsements didn't come until it was already clear that Scozzafava was going to finish third.
My point is not to argue that this rupture in the party isn't harmful for Republicans, but that it is driven by the grassroots, not talk show pundits and celebrity politicians. And my sense is that the nomination process helped fuel the populist grassroots revolt against Scozzafava.
Nov 3, '09
It's election day across America - but not in Oregon. What?!?!? Clackamas County and Marion County and Deschutes County, just to name a few, have ballots out to certain voters in their respective districts for local elections. Just because it's not a statewide election or an election where we see the oft-cited disclosure of building a campaign website, doesn't mean BlueO's authors and readers should fail to acknowledge the existence of important local elections happening all across the state.
Indeed, it might not be fit for talk 'round the water cooler, but at least give it a nod since there are tax votes and other important local measures that affect Oregonians. The more we treat all elections as important matters—soil conservation districts included--the more voters will be engaged and find that the general interest level is directly opposite the level of influence that the type of government has on a voter’s daily life. (That is, generally stated local elections matters more than national ones even though the money and interest is largely focused on the latter rather than the former.)
5:07 p.m.
Nov 3, '09
Also, on NY-23:
How can it be said (with a straight face) that the people of the district didn't have a fair say on who should be their nominee when the likely winner (Doug Hoffman) doesn't even live in the district?
Nov 3, '09
Jack, you said:
My point is not to argue that this rupture in the party isn't harmful for Republicans, but that it is driven by the grassroots, not talk show pundits and celebrity politicians.
When your grassroots represent, at most, no more than 20% of the national electorate (and on many issues, way, way less than that), and they have spotlight-loving, self-serving political celebrities cheering them on, you're pretty much ensuring a GOP that most of the country finds amusing at best, and seriously nutso at worst. And with the percentage of people willing to identify themselves as Republicans already at an all-time low, "harmful" seems quite the understatement.
Buckman Res sez:
Funny, I’d say the corporatists on Wall Street have been doing just fine this last year with the Dems in power
And with the release of the House’s Health Bill the big insurance corporations will be looking at a rosy future also.
They may be doing better than you or I would like, but all you have to do is see what they're lobbying for and against, and look at how they continue to espouse the GOP-fringe-party line (Chamber of Commerce, sans-Apple, anyone?) and see where their campaign contributions are going to see how much more on the outs they are under the Dems than they would ever be under the Republicans.
In this case the lesser of two evils is much, MUCH less evil.
Nov 3, '09
" As I've said many times before, we shouldn't have Yes and No votes, Instead, it should be Option A and Option B." - Kari
And there you have it folks: Yes & No is so confusing to the average democrat voter, they should be replaced! Bwuahahaa ROFL. What a bunch of fucking retards.
Nov 3, '09
Has anyone seen ANY results on the special election between the Conservative candidate and the Democrat in the NY 23rd Cong. district?
All I can find is polling. Even the NY Times just has NYC mayor, NJ Gov., and Virginia Gov. It must be after 10:30 back there---no results at all?
Nov 3, '09
LT, it's 49/45 for Owens. Check TPM
Nov 3, '09
Actually not too bad a night for Dems. Win in NY23 first for over 100 years. The Governorships aint much to cry over. I guess though the MSM will be trying desperately to pump this up as avast GOP comeback. Comical. Once again great to see a loon like Hoffman lose. Maybe it will stop them insisting Far Right is what the "people" want.
10:18 p.m.
Nov 3, '09
It was a bad day for the Goldman Sachs wing of the Democratic Party and for the Sarah Palin wing of the Republican Party.
That's probably a good thing.
10:52 p.m.
Nov 3, '09
The most important election result of the night (of the partisan candidate races) - and really the only result that has any national significance - is the Democrats taking NY-23 for the first time in nearly 120 years.
A favorite talking point of the right wing punditocracy is "this is still a center-right country". Can we just put that one to rest for good now? After two Republicans win governorships running on a faux Obama message of bi-partisan cooperation and the Democrats pick up a safe Republican House seat over the extreme right candidate, I think we can safely say this is, in fact, a center-left country.
We know what Bill Kristol was thinking yesterday. I wonder what he's thinking today? What were those "likely election results" he was referring to?
With the results of NY 23 I'm looking forward to watching this play out. Should be entertaining.
Nov 3, '09
Mixed results. VA and NJ hurt, but were predicted. NY-23 is a definite big win for the Dems. First time the Rs have lost the seat in 120 years. Clear repudiation of the extremist wing of the GOP. Disappointing close loss in Maine on gay marriage, good win in WA on civil unions. Predictable win in CA on the congressional seat.
Nov 3, '09
A favorite talking point of the right wing punditocracy is "this is still a center-right country"
And a favorite tacit assertion at BO is, "this is now a center-left country"...as they disparage anything outside that narrow band.
Fact is this is a mindless country, shackled with an antique system where you get one vote that puts you over a majority and suddenly the will of over 100 million people counts for nothing. Talking heads then announce that the +1 position is a "clear mandate from the voters", if "only" 2 out of 5 votes are ignored. Think about it. Left, right and center call 40% being stomped. 2 out of 5 people, out of how many voters? That's a hell of a lot of people. Yet, every single analysis will act as if the 3 out of 5 was "a very clear message".
Let's surprise the world and do something really, really positive for it. At noon tomorrow, let's every American commit suicide! You don't realize how hopeless it all is until you see a spectacle like our national vote.
12:37 a.m.
Nov 4, '09
Evan and Anon are correct. There are some local measures in Oregon with elections today. I'm staying up late tonight to learn the results of the Clackamas County Mosquito Control District Local Option Tax Renewal race.
12:38 a.m.
Nov 4, '09
BREAKING: The mosquitos lost, 24 to 75. Humans win! Humans win!
(Sorry, ABC's new sci-fi drama V debuted tonight. I'm feeling a little species-ist.)
7:31 a.m.
Nov 4, '09
When your grassroots represent, at most, no more than 20% of the national electorate (and on many issues, way, way less than that), and they have spotlight-loving, self-serving political celebrities cheering them on, you're pretty much ensuring a GOP that most of the country finds amusing at best, and seriously nutso at worst. And with the percentage of people willing to identify themselves as Republicans already at an all-time low, "harmful" seems quite the understatement.
Which is why I'm not unhappy with Hoffman's loss. The ïnsider's" nominated Scozzafava because they thought she could win. When the conservatives revolted and backed Hoffman, they ensured her defeat, but also his.
I'm not confident they'll learn the appropriate lesson from this, but I can hope.
7:44 a.m.
Nov 4, '09
Interesting. I see that Bill Owens, who won the Democratic nomination in NY-23, and is now the congressman of that district, is registered as an independent.
Nov 4, '09
The NY-23 outcome may actually be the momentous one of the night. The GOP has become captive of its most extreme wing and pays the price. The Sarah Palin/Glenn Beck wing of the party turned over a solid GOP Congressional seat to the Dem. Party, and to member who will support a public option in a health care bill. This presents a big opportunity for the Dem. party to provide an outreach to those diminishing numbers of moderate GOP across the country, and to accurately present itself as a centrist party. A winning idea, perhaps not a popular one on this forum. But truth be told the core issues of the Dem. party have majority support in this country, including the broad center, and most who call themselves independent. The tea-bagger GOP doesn't believe in social security, Medicare, Medicaid, environmental protection, trade unions, legal access to abortion, gay rights, universal health care, and tax equity.
Nov 4, '09
Kari:
and NJ Gov. Corzine has been in trouble because he's a former CEO of Goldman Sachs in the midst of a financial meltdown caused by big Wall Street firms
Bob T:
So you're saying that in the midst of a financial meltdown, loyal Dems (the 40-something percent) voted for the Wall St guy? You make it sound as though he would be abandoned by everyone, paricularly those who claim to like Wall St types the most. I guess not. More explanation is needed.
Bob Tiernan
Nov 4, '09
New Jersey a swing state?
If you believe that, I cannot consider any post you make credible. New Jersey has been a Democrat dominated state for so many years it is lost to history. New Jersey is a machine state and all of the local and county governments are dominated by Democrats. What you are ignoring is the corruption factor. Years of one-party rule has led to one of the most corrupt states in the nation. I have relatives who work for school districts in Bergen county. Cronyism and graft are so routine it only gets mentioned when a large bust happens like last July when 43 Democrats (and one Republican) were hauled off in handcuffs. Here in Oregon politics is one thing, but like it or not, in New Jersey the Unions, the Mob and the Democratic party are all three fingers of the same fist.
One of the big reasons Corzine lost is he managed be so incompetent and corrupt he stood out in a state where government corruption and incompetence is routine.
But of course you didn't mention that. You would rather pretend that Democrats are never corrupt. Oh no, never.
Whomever is the party in charge in DC is the culture of corruption party. It happened to the Republicans and it happened to the Democrats. Of course, it took 10 years or better for the corruption to invade the Republicans in Washington DC. It took the Democrats just a few months for Murtha, Durbin, Dodd, Rangel, Schumer, Reid, and Boxer to show that pork and corruption is a bipartisan issue.
Nov 4, '09
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Nov 4, 2009 12:38:31 AM
BREAKING: The mosquitos lost, 24 to 75. Humans win! Humans win!
(Sorry, ABC's new sci-fi drama V debuted tonight. I'm feeling a little species-ist.)
They still have better politics.
Nov 4, '09
Don't get too excited about the Owens win in NY23:
While some are crowing a bit this morning over the unusual circumstances of NY-23 and the big win there, they might want to pay attention to one under-reported fact: Bill Owens campaigned against the public option.
That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Obamacare by the voters up there.
I'm pretty sure Owens is one of those Blue Dogs.
He's also registered as an Independent.
Nov 4, '09
Looks like the powers that be wasted their time with slimey Corzine, when they could have put some effort into taking out Bloomberg on the other side of the river.
Oops
Nov 4, '09
Kari:
But remember that Virginia and NY-23 are Republican places
Bob T:
Not too sure about the accuracy of either, but let's look at NY-23, which uneducated news readers and some politicians have been saying hadn't elected a Democrat in over a hundred years (or "since the Civil War", said some). Just look-ee here.
Bob Tiernan NE Portland
5:12 p.m.
Nov 4, '09
Contrary to press reports, NY-23 Bill Owen is not registered as an "independent." He is registered as "non-affiliated," which is the legal term in New York for not a member of any party. New York has an "Independence Party." Owen is not a member of it.
10:06 p.m.
Nov 4, '09
Bob - You didn't look closely enough at the Wikipedia article that you've linked to. Prior to 1983, NY-23 was in the Bronx, Westchester, and Manhattan, not in upstate New York.
The point that these pundits were making is that most of what is now NY-23 has been in Republican control for more than a century.
3:45 a.m.
Nov 5, '09
Bob - Here's a historical electoral map of district 23.
Nov 5, '09
Sal Peralta:
Bob - You didn't look closely enough at the Wikipedia article that you've linked to. Prior to 1983, NY-23 was in the Bronx, Westchester, and Manhattan, not in upstate New York.
Bob T:
Thanks for pointing this out -- that's some boundary change!
Sal Peralta:
The point that these pundits were making is that most of what is now NY-23 has been in Republican control for more than a century.
Bob T:
Yes, give or take slivers territory along the edges that come and go every ten years. Still, while the fact that a Dem is in there now is something that the Repubs have to examine without lying to themselves, itlooks more like a case of the Repubs giving the seat away than a Dem making inroads and taking it away. The latter didn't happen even with the Obama coattails last year. Don't underestimate the ability of Repubs to earn the Stupid Party label. They (local party leaders) blew it by choosing the candidate they chose rather than a real moderate, and Hoffman was too much for some (in some positions and his inability to articulate much).
Bob Tiernan Portland
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