At the request of a number of posters and emailers, I am updating last week's posting on turnout trends for measures 66 and 67. Janice Thompson of Common Cause Oregon suggested that the Feb 2004 special election on a temporary income tax surcharge and change to the corporate minimum is another good comparison. There is, of course, questions about the over time comparability of these turnout numbers.
There are other Blue Oregon posters with far more experience than me on voter mobilization efforts in Oregon. I'm mainly a statistician and election reform specialist. But my political antenna tell me that these figures aren't encouraging. Turnout in Multnomah is lagging statewide, and the trends aren't upwards. I'm looking for a good reason why Multnomah County voters would be holding their ballots.
A few notes about the numbers. First, Multnomah's data for today was last updated at 4:30 and may be lagging true turnout over the weekend. Second, the state runs about one day behind Multnomah.
Sorry for the quality of the cut and paste; click on the graphics and you'll get far superior images.