Good run down, thanks! The contest in the 1st for the GOP is between Cornilles and John Kuzmanich. Kuzmanich is behind Cornilles on fundraising so far but has a lot of grass roots support.

Broadhead isn't perceived as a serious candidate. The fact that he loaned himself money doesn't indicate much.

Of course, now legal corporate funded independent campaigns will not show up in candidate filings. They will drop from the sky like H-bombs.

Josh Marshall at Taling Points Memo has an interesting article on the Congressional campaigns from a national point of view: What's the Deal with The Ryan Budget?

Money buys media presence to get your message out. That's in opposition to places where voters actively seek out the data. Here we shove our foot in the door while people are doing something else, and try to fit the message to 30 seconds.

Kill ALL the money. Let the demagogues win. When it gets bad enough people will start seeking the data. This realpolitik is as dead wrong as Reaganomics. It has only diminished our Republic, year on year. Besides bone laziness, people don't see it as their duty, or a service, to be informed. Why should they? There's an industry around campaign money, and every last one of those folks will tell you in earnest that the Republic would end without your allowing them to continue on.

Public financing is only a baby step in the right direction. Until this kind of campaign wagism makes you want to wretch, you are a part of the problem, not the solution. Then again, most buy flowers or sweets for a honey on the first date. Same diff. You can get real, get honest, or continue to build the facade of inevitable consumerism. You can project a palatable image, or stand and be yourself. The guy with the flowers might get further initially, but the guy with the integrity lasts longer.

"We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron," declaimed American journalist H L Mencken (1880-1956) many years ago: former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's speech to the National Tea Party movement in Tennessee last weekend calls the famous curmudgeon's lofty aspiration to mind. Courtesy of http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/LB10Dj02.html

Looks like Wyden and the four Democratic Representatives aren't in much trouble, and the Governorship will go to whoever wins the Democratic primary.

What we really need to focus on is the protection of our legislative majorities, particularly the House seats that flipped to Democrat in 2008 and the five or so that narrowly stayed Republican. We have an excellent chance at running the table completely on redistricting, thereby further cementing our legislative majorities and opening up the 2nd Congressional district to competition.

Speaking of which, it's about time to recruit and fund a decent race in the existing 2nd, against Walden. We aren't likely to take the district in 2010; however, this is a good time for the right Democrat to build name recognition among the voters and the DNC in anticipation of 2012. A respectable showing this year would inspire money from the national party and an effort to redraw the 2nd as a blue-leaning district, by showing that we're closer than the pundits think.

Jackson County, Bend and the Columbia Gorge are the fastest growing parts of the 2nd, and they're trending blue. No part of Oregon should be ceded to the Palinists. Our people deserve better. All of them.

Could a Democrat from say... Multnomah County, run against Greg Walden. I know he CAN, as in, legally. The residency requirement for Congress is only being a resident in the same state...but would the voters and funders support a candidate from outside the Bend area?

I agree. Thanks, Kari.

"Speaking of which, it's about time to recruit and fund a decent race in the existing 2nd, against Walden. We aren't likely to take the district in 2010; however, this is a good time for the right Democrat to build name recognition among the voters and the DNC in anticipation of 2012. A respectable showing this year would inspire money from the national party and an effort to redraw the 2nd as a blue-leaning district, by showing that we're closer than the pundits think."

Excellent point.

"but would the voters and funders support a candidate from outside the Bend area?

"Highly unlikely."

In 2006, the Democrats chose a woman (my apologies for not remembering her name) from the Medford area. I worked for Scott Silver, but he, Chuck Butcher and another man from Southern Oregon came up short. There are a few good Democrats in the Bend area, but the last I heard some time ago there tended to be a lot of in-fighting in the Deschutes party.

" five or so that narrowly stayed Republican."

Which 5 would that be? How defined? Margin of less than 1000? Some other measure?

If a Republican's re-election margin has declined over the last 2 elections and now if that state rep. loses 5% more of the most recent re-elect margin they will be out of office, is that member one of the 5?

Lots of suspicion in some downstate areas after years of "target" candidates and "forgotten " candidates--and of course the caucus or some staffer in Portland knows more about those districts than the people living in them.

Money is not always what wins races in some downstate areas. In some counties, the smart campaign tries to hit every door---might just hit households where there is an NAV or minor party registered voter, or someone registered R but really fed up with the incumbent.

Of course in the really rural districts (often a mile or more between houses), money for gas to get from one end of the district to another corner of the district is very important.

Broadhead loaned himself the money to get on the radar. I believe it's from loans he took out on property he owns. He doesn't have a leg to stand on. If he thinks he's going to get ahead just because he has money in the bank, he's wrong. He doesn't have any support among the community who wants to unseat Wu.

Kuzmanich will continue to earn respect among the base of tea party people and 9-12ers...and it's a big base! Cornilles appears to be "tapped" by the GOP, which won't sit well with the limited government folks.

Should be interesting to say the least.

Any attempt to redraw the 2nd as a real competitive district would be very controversial because it would mean radically redrawing districts with long-time established incumbents.

We could take parts of eastern Portland and the eastern metro area and pair them with the gorge up to Umatilla County. The Hood River and Dalles areas lean Democratic, and this should offset the strong Republican inclination of places like Sherman County. That could be a blue-leaning district, and it would include Greg Walden's home of Hood River.

It would also screw up districts 1, 3, and 5, and would inevitably cause a redrawing of Central and Southern Oregon district boundaries, so District 4 would be affected as well. I'm not saying it shouldn't be attempted, but it would be a lot of work and a big fuss to change a situation where we have 2 districts which which are pretty solidly Democratic (1 & 3) 2 lean slightly Democratic (4 & 5) into a situation where we would have 4 districts which would be competitive, with probably at least 2 being dead even or even lean Republican.

And its entirely dependent on Oregon not getting a 6th district, which would guarantee at least one Republican-held district. It is looking increasingly likely that Oregon will continue to have only 5 districts, so that's not a big issue.

As it is, district 1 is significantly larger in population than hte others, on the order of something like 30-35,000 people, and district 4 is smaller, by something like 25-30,000 people. The legislature or SOS or whoever ends up dealing with redistricting will have to rectify this before considering anything else. Also, district 5 looks a bit gerrymandered, and could use a little more of a solid shape.

If you want to waste a lot of time coming up with redistricting plans of your own, there's an app for that: http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

Connor, I've used that app to come up with five districts that all lean Democratic, but not by much. The Democrat would start out with an advantage, but in a GOP wave year, we could lose any of them. Seems to me that's a fair price to pay for the potential to have a solid blue delegation.

The districts roughly are as follows:

1. Washington County, and part of the I-5 corridor heading south toward Salem

2. The Coast, including Clatsop/Columbia, Jackson/Josephine, and Yamhill

3. East Portland, East Multnomah, and all counties bordering Washington State

4. Lane, Benton, Douglas (minus the coast) and most of the large, thinly populated counties to the east

5. Deschutes, Jefferson, Linn, most of Marion and Clackamas, and West Multnomah.

The 4th would gain the most Republican part of the state, but would keep Eugene and add Corvallis. The new 2nd would be anchored by the coast, and have the Ashland area as well. The map depends on Clackamas, Jackson and Marion continuing the Democratic trends they've been showing since 2003. Not perfect, but a good alternative to saddling Oregon with an unbeatable GOP Rep in Congress.

LT--I was refering to a handful of districts that were too close to call on election night 2008, but which eventually stayed GOP due to absentee votes. To my recollection, of that group only the 6th (Esquival/Medford) is downstate. Medford is shifting slowly and deserves strong challenges unless trends start moving back again. The others, IIRC, were all Willamette Valley.

This Brodhead fella seems a bit eccentric. I did look at his website a bit. He does have a few good ideas, but where he goes without supporters is anybody's guess!

It does seem that this Kuzmanich fella is going negative on the republican party. His political portfolio is attending a few Tea parties, subprime mortgage lending, and bad mouthing Rob Cornilles. How intelligent is it to sit in front of a computer and do subprime mortgae lending applications? I mean give me a break! Mortgage lenders are a dime a dozen!

A friend of mine who is familiar with the Kuzmanich campaign told me that the only reason Kuzmanich is running is to advertise his business when the voter pamphlet comes out! He apparently is right in the thick of it when it comes to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae loaning. He even lists his IQ. This is really creepy!

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/john-kuzmanich/15/901/41b

AN---Salem has been in the 5th Dist. since the district was created. I hope you are not advocating putting it in the same Cong. Dist. as Washington County.

Admiral Naismith, I think the risk of having 3 or 4 Republicans representing Oregon is worse for Oregon than having one reliably Republican district.

To add a bit to the 2nd CD discussion. In 2006 Carol Voisin ran. She now sits on the Ashland City Council. She performed better than any Dem in a long time. Probably since Mike Dugan. There actually is a democratic candidate already in the 2nd CD.

But as they say Jesus Christ could not beat Walden in the 2nd CD. The candidate could use your support to run a campaign and build the district base for the future. If she is going to raise any decent money she'll need good early support.

Instead of recruiting someone from multnomah county to run please donate to her campaign.

http://joyce4congress.org/

The issue isn't the Dems v the GOP, it's the BD Dems v Progressive Dems.

I am not thrilled that Wyden is not being challenged. He is at least partially to blame for the dithering in the Finance Committee, going sideways on the public option and even now not being a leader for reconciliation. Not being heard from at all. He's way to neutral.

I am also not thrilled with Schrader who signed on with the Blue Dogs. He's my representative and I certainly would have liked him to be pushed to the left.

Posted by: Theresa Kohlhoff | Feb 10, 2010 6:37:19 AM

The issue isn't the Dems v the GOP, it's the BD Dems v Progressive Dems.

Hear, hear. Well put, madame!

But as they say Jesus Christ could not beat Walden in the 2nd CD.

The slightly lower standard proposed by Edwin Edwards usually applies, of finding the candidate in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. Still doesn't seem likely. Actually, from a progressive's POV, this looks like banal herd behavior. I haven't heard anyone say what they would like that "D" to do that would be different. Does he not represent his constituents? Seems to pretty well. Do you only want a "D" there, who would either do the same things, or be unrepresentative? Are you proud of Lincoln and Nelson in the Senate, voting with Repugnants on the most shameless filibuster in history, just because they have a "D" after their name? Strikes most that aren't loyalists as purely gang activity.

Keith: Thank you for the link to Joyce Segers. She appears to be my kind of politician. I didn't notice any party affiliation on her web site, which is a good sign. She doesn't stand any chance in the Second District, but I'll support and vote for her any way as I hope other independents will.

LT--I said "toward" Salem, not including it. The non Wa-Co tail I'd put on my proposed 1st CD would end somewhere between Woodburn and Keizer.

Connor--reasonable people can differ. If I have greater risk-tolerance, that means you and I should invest differently and we'd support different redistricting maps. I prefer a fighting chance at winning all five districts and to get Team Democrat's message to every corner of the state (seems to me one reason we're not more popular in East Oregon is because there's a perception among our leaders that we've conceded that region to the other party and that it's better to just win by letting the populated counties outvote the east and let the sagebrush people go screw. Sagebrush deserves better than that and we can do better). Also, it seems to me that our representatives give better service and are more mindful of the needs of their constituents when they have to actually court them to get elected. Super-safe districts aren't necessarily the best thing even for our side. We could get some hack who knows she can screw us over all she wants because the district is unlikely to go for the other side. Seems to me OR-02 has such a hack from the Republicans right now.

Zarathustra--who cares whether we feel proud of Lincoln and Nelson? It's not as if they were elected to represent us. What counts is whether the people in THEIR states feel proud...and judging from Arkansas polls, it seems that in Lincoln's case, at least, the answer is a resounding no. She may well get primaried from the left, even.

Posted by: Theresa Kohlhoff | Feb 10, 2010 6:37:19 AM

The issue isn't the Dems v the GOP, it's the BD Dems v Progressive Dems.

Theresa needs to check into a) the number of voters not registered in a major party b) the number of people who appreciate Wyden's town halls--every county, every year---and the straight answer they gave him.

Not only that, I stayed up late at night and watched the Finance Comm. the day Wyden's proposal came up. I thought they treated him rudely.

Are you saying he could have challenged Chair Baucus if only he had lived up to your specifications?

And who, exactly, do you believe could win a primary against Wyden? Someone else from Portland?

I helped elect Wyden to the US Senate. I have seen no reason not to re-elect him. But then, I'm not big on labels, nor am I big on ideological purity.

AN, I don't see what communities of interest in N. Marion County would have more in common with the 1st Dist. than the 5th.

But perhaps you were not taking that into account, only partisan leanings.

And who, exactly, do you believe could win a primary against Wyden?

The last honest Democrat ! You have to love the "(D-but honest)" after his name.

Wish I wasn't so busy.

"the number of people who appreciate Wyden's town halls--"

Then there are others who figure going to Wyden's and most politicians' "town hall" meetings is setting oneself up for a dose of BS.

"I have seen no reason not to re-elect him. But then, I'm not big on labels, nor am I big on ideological purity."

How about his callous indifference towards the slaughter of around 1,400 Palestinians (mostly non-belligerent civilians) during Operation Cast Lead and condoning, if not endorsing, Israel's actions that have been deemed war crimes? Are you okay with that?

If you combine Bill and Steve Marx's sentiments, one could reach the conclusion that Wyden would best serve as the next carpetbagger representing NY. Ah, NY. So American they bombed it twice.

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