Two Polls Show Big Kitzhaber Lead

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

This morning, KATU released the results of a poll they commissioned from SurveyUSA back on April 10-11. In the poll, John Kitzhaber leads Bill Bradbury by a margin of 54% to 16%. 28% were undecided at the time of the poll, over two weeks ago. Crosstabs at SurveyUSA.com.

Willamette Week also reports on the results of a poll conducted by Davis, Hibbits & Midghall- at the behest of Nike and The Standard. In that poll, conducted April 14-15, Kitzhaber leads Bradbury by a margin of 50% to 21%. 25% undecided.

Both polls surveyed likely Democratic primary voters. SUSA polled 429 Democrats (margin of error +/- 5%, and DH&M polled 300 (MoE +/5 5.6%).

Obviously, both polls were conducted quite a while ago -- so it's likely that things have shifted somewhat as voter contact has shifted into high gear. And, of course, it's always all about GOTV.

Comments

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    [Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's campaign website. I speak only for myself.]

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    I am interested in polling of potential match-ups for the general election.

    Too bad this is nowhere near a top-tier battle this cycle in the general, because there is a dearth of polling compared to almost every other Governor's race this cycle.

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    It's disappointing to me. I thought Bradbury did much better than Kitz in the KGW debate and the fact that Howard Dean has endorsed Bradbury means a lot to me.

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      With all due respect, Governor Kitzhaber cleaned his clock in the debate. I like Secretary Bradbury, and I think either candidate would be a good Governor, so I don't have a favorite in this race (in fact it is a bit of a quandary for me on who I'll vote for int eh May primary, a good quandary mind you). But Governor Kitzhaber really did much better in the debate than Secretary Bradbury.

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    Yes, this is very disappointing, these poll results. But, as Kari Chisolm mentioned, the results are not current.

    We all know (or should know) that life in America or anywhere in the developed world cannot not in 50 years resemble today's situation as regards how energy is made or what types of fuels we use. Seems to me that Bradbury is the only candidate whose platform really grasps the gravity of the situation. Kithaber says he recognizes the problem with climate change, but he's wishy-washy on Boardman, LNG and the CRC. We don't have time to waste on these issues- we need to act.

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    Didn't Dean simply endorse Bradbury as payback for co-chairing his 2003-2004 Campaign? Like Gore did for Dean?

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    Stephen - The future is about developing a diverse energy portfolio. Much of the Oregon coast doesn't have access to natural gas and they should because the practical reality is that electricity on the coast is over-reliant on high voltage power coming over the coast range. So far as I can tell, setting up a terminal in Southern Oregon would give that region much greater energy independence than it currently has.

    What we need to guard against is pipelines impacting productive farmland, and we should have a blanket concern for protecting the interests of landowners who will be impacted, but I see no reason why there shouldn't be a terminal in Coos Bay if that's what the residents there actually want.

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      Sal- so you're saying you want there to be construction in Oregon, west of the Coast Range, of a natural gas-fired power plant? As you know, there are currently no such plants in Oregon that are near the coast. Is there any proposal to build one? - if so, I haven't heard it.

      The proposal I've heard for the LNG terminal to be located at Coos Bay would have all the LNG shipped out on an over 200-mile-long, brand new pipeline, which would cross 3 national forests and many already-imperiled salmon streams.

      http://kswild.org/programs/rogue-riverkeeper/no-lng-in-oregon

      As all the LNG is to be shipped out, how would that help with the region's energy independence?

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    Kitzhaber is an impressive choice. I support him for a number of reasons, one being he already has tons of on-the-job training. There is no value you can put on that, especially facing a 2.5 billion dollar shortfall.

    I would just hope that there could be a "meeting of the minds" after the primary between both candidates. I mean, they are old friends after all and both have great energy and ideas for Oregon. It would be a shame to see that go to waste.

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    I for one am more than willing to let Dr. Kitz remain retired. His approach and systemic avoidance of real issue formation are so 90's. Oops, thats what he did the LAST time!

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    Mr. Chapman:

    The 90's was like 10-19 years ago and you must admit, the political ecology of Oregon has changed since then. Also, avoidance would not be the word I would use to describe his last term in office. During that term when the Republicans controlled both houses (right?) he was playing defense not avoidance. He told the Republicans in leadership (representing real Republicans or not) that "sure, you can send me garbage and I will VETO it like a young Shaq REJECTING his athletic opponents."

    I, for one, want to see him on offense for a change.

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    I was disappointed Kitzhaber could not attend the Equity & Accountability Governor's Forum at the NAYA Family Center in Portland sponsored by 25 communities of color organizations.

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