Poll: Alley beating Dudley
Kari Chisholm
A poll from Eugene-based Lindholm Research has Allen Alley leading Chris Dudley in the Republican gubenatorial primary.
It's Alley 29, Dudley 26, Lim 10, Sizemore 4. Still a huge undecided at 29%. The margin of error is 5%, so it's anybody's game.
While Dudley has led most of the way, as Lindhold notes, a last-minute shift is within the realm of possibility:
Large movements in the final days have happened before in the Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary. In 2002, Ron Saxton went from first in the polls to finish in third place in the final few days.
An earlier Lindholm poll in late April had it at Dudley 30, Alley 13, Sizemore 8, Lim 6 with 41% undecided. So, if this poll is accurate, a quarter of the earlier undecideds have now decided - and they're almost entirely going to Alley. There's also some small erosion of support for Dudley and Sizemore (and a slight gain by Lim).
If this is the trend - that late-breaking undecideds are going for Alley, we have an upset in the making.
Hat tip to WW. Discuss.
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1:23 p.m.
May 15, '10
Curious as to what everyone's take is on who would be the more difficult GOP candidate to defeat (Dudley or Alley) for either of the potential Dem candidates (Kitz or Bradbury)...?
6:20 p.m.
May 15, '10
Kitzhaber would likely negatively define Dudley right out of the gate. Bradbury v. Dudley would make this November closer than Mannix v. Kulongoski in November 2002. Alley beats Bradbury by a slender margin. Alley v. Kitz is a race, particularly if the electorate's in a "throw the bums out" mood.
4:57 p.m.
May 16, '10
The sudden change in the trends might indicate that the voters are sticking with the issues, so an issue mistep might define the general election.
Re: avatar Why not the orig McGovern/Eagleton? Shriver gave us Arnie (kinda).
7:08 p.m.
May 16, '10
I haven't found a wooden sign with Eagleton yet
3:41 a.m.
May 18, '10
Oh, right! That would be a collector's item for sure.