Punditology 2010: Which political nerd reigns supreme?
Kari Chisholm
It's time to finally report on the results of the Punditology Challenge for the 2010 primary election.
As usual, we punditologists - all 216 of us - were mostly right. Except when we were wildly wrong.
We were right about all the statewide races, all the congressional races, and all but one of the legislative races. (We'd picked Steve Griffith as a slight favorite over Mary Kremer.)
But things were much rougher in the Portland-area local races. Just 30% correctly called the Stacey/Hughes runoff for Metro President - and Only 9% knew that Andy Duyck would win outright in the WashCo chair race. Just a third of us knew that Dan Saltzman would win outright. And while we collectively knew that Karol Collymore would make the runoff in MultCo2, only 9% knew she'd face Loretta Smith.
Outside the Metro area, we correctly picked Mary Stern to win in Yamhill and Sid Leiken to lead in Lane. 81% of us were wrong, however, in picking Mike Dugan to win re-election as Deschutes County DA.
Now, on to the real question: Who won? Which political nerd reigns supreme?
Top marks go to PGE lobbyist Deane Funk, who correctly picked 19 of 24 races -- and projected 95,000 votes for Jim Huffman (who got 109,365 votes.) Also correctly nailing 19 of 24 were Jeff Stone, lobbyist for the Oregon Association of Nurseries, and Sonya Carlson, lege aide to Rep. Phil Barnhart.
Six folks got 18 right - Rep. Jeff Barker, OEA's Jeston Black, Hillsboro city councilor Aron Carleson, Farm Bureau lobbyist Katie Fast, OLCV's Tresa Horney, and WashCo Dems chair Karen Packer.
Eighteen of you got 17 right - Nick Christensen, Andy Darkins, Julie Fahey, Richard Gray, Mike Grigsby, Cody Hoesly, Jim Holstein, Dave Hunt, Brendan McCarthy, Jane O'Keeffe, Drew Olsen, Andrew Riley, Dave Robertson, Sandi Schukar, Jennifer Shmikler, Liz Smith Currie, Alan Tresidder, and Robert Wagner.
The median correct score? 14 of 24.
We'll do it again in the fall. Thanks for participating!
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May 24, 2010 |
Kari Chisholm
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4 comments
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1:33 p.m.
May 24, '10
Hey, Kari, how about posting the rest of the results? My entire self-worth is based on knowing who I score better than.
12:25 a.m.
May 25, '10
Sorry, but we've always posted just the top 10% or so of participants.
I'll tell you this: I got 14 of 24 right. Sigh.
4:36 p.m.
May 26, '10
Nonetheless, Kari-Thanks for doing Punditology. It's a fun side-line for election season!