Will the PAC-10 become the PAC-16?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

"This is an unbelievable, volatile period. The poker playing that is going on is unprecedented."

Over the last few days, the college football world has been rocked by rumors of dramatic shifts in conference alignments - ones that would bring big cultural and financial changes to the landscape for Oregon and Oregon State.

The most dramatic and plausible proposal? That the PAC-10 is on the verge of inviting in six universities from the Big-12 - Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. They'd reportedly join Arizona and Arizona State in a PAC-16 East division - while the original Pac-8 would form a PAC-16 West.

Overnight, that would be the most elite conference in college sports - and would generate massive revenues through a new TV deal that features 10 of the top 28 media markets in the country (and four of the top 10). Some estimates suggest that this rumored PAC-16 would generate an additional $20 million per year to each university - including Oregon and Oregon State. (In 2009, UO athletics finished a half-million in the red, and OSU was $5.9 million in the hole.)

Of course, it wouldn't be college football if it didn't include politicians throwing their muscle around.

Already, some Texas legislators are suggesting that they'll deny public funding to the Texas programs if they jump to the PAC-10 without taking Baylor University with them - a move that would presumably shove Colorado out of the proposal. It's hard to imagine that the PAC-10 would take the Waco media market over the Denver media market. (Political trivia note: Baylor's brand-new university president is none other than Clinton tormenter Ken Starr.)

Alternately, the PAC-10 could scale back its plans and just invite Colorado and Utah into a 12-team conference. That plan has reportedly been shelved, though PAC-10 officials are tight-lipped about details:

“We probably have contemplated or are contemplating almost everything you’ve read about,” [commissioner Larry Scott] said. “The Pac-10 is in a very fortunate position. We have tremendous prospects exactly as we are. We also have some potentially exciting opportunities regarding expanding the footprint of the conference.” ...

Among the quartet of moves the Pac-10 might make are 1) keeping the status quo, 2) Aa full-on merger with the Big 12, 3) inviting six Big 12 teams to join a new 16-team conference, and 4) onviting Colorado and Utah to join a 12-team conference that would then be eligible for a lucrative conference title game. [OrangeBloods.com's Chip] Brown reports that the league has narrowed its options down to either going forward with just its current ten teams, or adding six more from the Big 12.

What's next? It seems that the Big 12 has given Nebraska and Missouri an end-of-month deadline to decide whether they're staying or going -- a decision that would start the dominoes toppling over.

Expect the PAC-10 to make its decisions soon - and to move [very quickly]. As WAC commissioner Karl Benson said, “This is an unbelievable, volatile period. The poker playing that is going on is unprecedented.”

What do you think? Love it? Hate it? Is this good or bad for Oregon and Oregon State?

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    Will the cost of our season tickets go up?

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      I would think the opposite. Or at least, bringing in $20m more annually in TV revenue would reduce the pressure to raise ticket prices.

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    I'd rather not see an expansion. If it's got to happen, I'd rather see the PAC-10 add West Coast teams. I don't want to see these kids dealing with Portland/Seattle to Dallas flights on a regular basis for conference games. That's just stupid.

    Every bit of the added revenue will get eaten by added flight expenses.

    Fresno State is ready for the PAC-10. BYU is ready. Utah is ready. San Diego St. is close. Boise St. is close.

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      Agreed totally. First, the TX OK and Colorado teams do not even play 'our' style of football. Second, they can't keep their own conference together, what would original PAC-8 schools have to give away in order to gain 6 others? I'd rather see them add BYU, Utah and SDSU. They should then drop WSU. Not anti-coug; its just that they are perenially non competitive.

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      Every bit of the added revenue will get eaten by added flight expenses.

      I'm sorry but that statement is just fundamentally wrong, for two reasons.

      First, expanding the conference will not have a significant impact on travel expenses. If the PAC-10 becomes the PAC-16, it will be broken up into 2 8-team divisions. Most of the existing PAC-10 schools will be in a Western division, minus the Arizona schools which will form an Eastern division along with the Big 12 imports. Then, each team will play most of their conference games within their division, and a couple of games (1 or 2) against teams from the opposite division (half of which will be played at home). So, for the Ducks or Beavers, a PAC-16 simply means the difference between travelling to Arizona and travelling to Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas (and in only 3 out of 4 years). The cost difference there will be minimal. Second, these teams already travel further than Texas or Oklahoma to play games on a pretty regular basis. Oregon has a game in Knoxville this year. OSU and UO have made trips to Pennsylvania and Indiana in recent years, and the Beavers are playing in Louisville in 2011. So if anything, an expanded conference will reduce the chance that UO or OSU will be willing to travel to the east coast to play marquee out of conference matchups and might actually decrease the distance these teams are travelling in a given year.

      Second, you're vastly underestimating the increased revenue each team would see. Currently the PAC 10 pays out $9 million to each school from tv contracts. By comparison, the SEC pays out over $17 million per school, and the Big Ten $22 million. As Kari notes above, a PAC-16 could increase the payout for each school by $20 million. Any increased travel costs that may occur won't even begin to put a dent in that.

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        Looks like you've gotten yourself fixated on football at the exclusion of all other things.

        There's a whole lot more sports than football that PAC-10 titles are awarded...

        Baseball Basketball (M) Basketball (W) Cross Country (M) Cross Country (W) Football Golf (M)
        Golf (W) Gymnastics (W) Rowing (M) Rowing (W) Soccer (M) Soccer (W) Softball Swimming & Diving (M) Swimming & Diving (W) Tennis (M) Tennis (W) Track & Field (M) Track & Field (W) Volleyball (W) Wrestling

        http://www.pac-10.org/championships/pac10-championships.html

        22 PAC-10 Sports to fly teams around. Each sport has it's own scheduling problems. They can't ignore half the conference in basketball, baseball, or softball schedules.

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          Yes, my focus is on football, considering that is the most expensive sport in college athletics (and brings in the most revenue by far) and as Kari and I noted, their travel expenses aren't going to change significantly.

          They can't ignore half the conference in basketball, baseball, or softball schedules.

          Why not? From Sports Illustrated columnist Stewart Mandel:

          Texas' basketball team could play 10 league games against fellow Big 12 imports, do home-and-homes with Arizona and Arizona State, and take one Thursday-Saturday swing to, say, the Oregon schools. Then you use conference tournaments and title games to determine a champion.

          Just switch the words Oregon and Texas (playing "current PAC-10 teams" instead of "Big 12 imports"), and you see it's still not a significant impact. Oregon men's basketball has made non-conference trips to Missouri, Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Nebraska in recent years. The Beavers have played in Texas (Lubbock and El Paso), Washington DC, Chicago, Nebraska, Iowa, Alaska, and Louisiana. As with football, they can easily offset any increased travel expenses by playing less non-conference games on the other side of the country.

          The same principle applies to other team sports. Play most of the games inside the division, a trip to Colorado, Texas, or Oklahoma (in place of their current trips to Arizona, and only 3 out of 4 years), and then a conference tournament. Other sports schedules aren't even based on head-to-head matchups with other schools, but they travel to tournaments and meets around the country. UO cross country went to Indiana this year, men's golf went to Hawaii and Texas, women's gymnastics went to Georgia. Many of those teams aren't even directly competing with all of the other PAC-10 schools until the conference tournament as it already stands.

          The bottom line is that adding 6 Big 12 schools to the conference isn't going to increase the athletics travel budget by $20 million, or even a fraction of that.

          Finally, even ignoring my own arguments, do you really think the 10 PAC-10 university presidents and athletic directors would actually be in favor of expansion if it represented no financial gain, or even a net loss? Obviously not, money is the driving force behind these current expansion talks and there would be no reason to move forward with the process if it wasn't going to hugely benefit the member schools.

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            "Do you really think the 10 PAC-10 university presidents and athletic directors would actually be in favor of expansion if it represented no financial gain, or even a net loss?"

            Clearly, some-guy-on-the-internet knows more about the finances of university athletic programs than do the athletic directors and university presidents. :)

            If Adam's assertions are true, then he'll be right - they won't do the merger. If they do the merger, then we'll know: it made sense financially.

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              It's possible.

              If they thought it might lead to the National Championships a lot more often, yeah.

              There's a whole lot more "politics the only consideration" appointments to positions these days. Lots more lesser qualified people in those positions.

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          When conferences have two divisions, don't they usually have a weighted schedule. I would suspect that west division schools would only play maybe 2 east schools per season.

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      As for the schools you prefer, I agree that they are preferable from a geographical perspective, but the bottom line is that the PAC-10 wouldn't benefit from adding them to the conference. Boise, Fresno, and Salt Lake City/Utah simply aren't particularly large media markets. In the end, adding those teams would probably represent a net loss for the existing conference members, as you would be adding 5 more members to split tv revenue between without significantly expanding the conference's media presence.

      For better or for worse, Texas has both Dallas and Houston, and is probably the most football-crazy state in the country. Add in Denver, Oklahoma City, Austin, and San Antonio, and it's easy to see why the PAC-10 is considering these schools.

      Not to mention the quality of football teams (as football is the moneymaker of college sports). This even from someone who thinks that the undefeated Broncos and Utes of recent years should have been considered national champions, for what it's worth. Boise State, BYU, and Utah are absolutely legitimate. But Fresno's biggest claim to fame is that they almost beat USC in 2005, they're a good team for a non-BCS conference, but they're not on par with Utah, BYU, or BSU. I'm also not sure by what standard SDSU could be considered close to BCS caliber; they went 4-8 in 2009, and 2-10 in 2008, and in the lowly WAC. In good years, the first three teams can all be national contenders. But the quality of the 6 (football) teams we'd get from the Big 12 is simply better overall. It's even more of a gap for basketball.

      So while those teams make more logical sense due to their locations, they don't really add all that much to the conference, and might actually be step backward when it comes to money, which is the driving force behind expansion in the first place.

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        I know all about Texas and Texans. It's a corrupt, polluted sewer I don't want our kids to be forced to spend any time in.

        I do not want the PAC-10 stamp of approval on education done Texas-style. They just deleted the entire progressive movement out of US History in Texas classrooms. I have a big problem education done by neo-cons. I don't want anyone mentioning Berkeley, UCLA, and Texas Tech in the same breath.

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      "Every bit of the added revenue will get eaten by added flight expenses."

      Seriously? Your math is way off.

      Presumably, the eight schools in the Pac-16 West would play each other every year - that's seven games each. Then, they'd play three of the eight in the Pac-16 East annually -- two at home, one on the road; or vice versa.

      25% of those Pac-16 East games would be against Arizona or Arizona State - teams they're already playing.

      Over a ten-year period, in other words, you'd be talking about 15 games played in Texas, Oklahoma, or Colorado.

      Would chartering 15 flights really cost $200 million? That's $13.3 million a flight. Between 65 scholarship players, coaching staff, administrators, etc - that's roughly 100 people. Not even first class costs $13,300 to Dallas.

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        Looks like you're singularly focused on football as Nick.

        As I've shown replying to Nick's post above, there's 22 PAC-10 titles awarded. 22 sports for each university to fly 22 teams all over the country.

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          Yes, that's a fair point. Point to you.

          Some sports do home-and-away pairs each season (basketball), some trade annually, and still others do tournaments and conference meets that presumably would move around the entire conference.

          That said, I still think it's bunk that $20 million would get chewed up by travel expenses.

          Even if every round-trip flight cost $1000, that's 20,000 flights a year --- just shy of 1000 flights per team per year... over and above what they're doing now, in order to compete against six new schools.

          Your math is still way off.

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    The question should be will the quality of our universities go down? U of O has already sold its soul to Mr. Knight, but OSU still has a chance.

    Perhaps a return to the original PAC 8 is a good thing so that the only real result of this is that there is a playoff with Texas before the Rose Bowl, but Texas and Oklahoma represent two of the worst in the professionalization of college football. It doesn't make me happy to share a leage with them.

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      Not to revist the entire UO-OSU rivalry here on Blue Oregon, but the whole "U of O has already sold its soul to Mr. Knight" meme is tired, worn out and frankly reeks of jealousy. Name one university - in the world - that would turn away a wealthy alum who wanted to contribute to the school. You won't find one. Phil Knight actually has allowed the U of O athletic department to operate entirely outside the university general fund - unlike OSU and its $6 million - now over $7 million with the sacking of LaVonda Wagner - athletic department deficit.

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      There are a lot of things to dislike about the professionalization of college football - and the disaster that is academic performance inside college football programs.

      But if you're asking whether this conference expansion hurt the quality of the universities genereally, I think the answer is quite clear: It'll help the quality of our universities.

      For starters, the athletic programs will immediately move from a deficit position to a budget surplus position. No more drawing from the general fund.

      Second, the national exposure for the football programs will generate higher rates of applications - which will allow the academic quality of the student body to improve.

      Third, with respect to the academic quality of the athletic programs themselves, there appears to be a direct correlation between the financial resources of the program and the academic performance of the athletes. Today's Oregonian, for example, notes that the Academic Performance Rating (APR) negatively impacts low-budget programs like Portland State who are unable to hire a flotilla of academic advisers and tutors.

      So, all in all, I'd see this shift - and the money it brings into Oregon - as a net positive academically, for the athletics and the student body generally.

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      I agree with David about universities turning away donations. It simply doesn't happen.

      Phil Knight has not only contributed to Oregon, but Stanford and OHSU both have received major gifts. Oregon has simply received the majority of Knight's money.

      "U of O has already sold its soul to Mr. Knight"

      Considering Nike was founded at the university and Knight is an alum, I say it pays homage.

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    Just one thing here. The University of Oregon might have run a small defict for 2009, but that figure does not take into account the over $10 million Rose Bowl payout the school earned off the backs of its football team. That will show up at the end of this year.

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    As a U of A alum, I would be bummed to see the Cats in what would essentially be another league. That would mean less trips to Eugene, Corvallis and Seattle.

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    It's a good move if increased exposure/revenue were the only consideration. Makes no sense at all from a logistical standpoint, weakens existing PAC-10 teams and diminishes the opportunity for Division 1AA programs to move up. IMHO, the PAC-whatever should be comprised of schools west of the rocky mountains.

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      How does it diminish the opportunity for I-AA programs to move up?

      There's an awful lot of I-A programs west of the Rockies that would move up into the PAC-10 before we'd be talking about I-AA programs.

      And the thing holding back I-AA programs from moving up to I-A isn't a lack of space in I-A conferences. Anybody can move up when they're ready. Western Kentucky moved up just a couple of years ago.

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    This is great for the Pac 10 schools... but crossing my fingers for my alma mater (UNLV) that the Mountain West winds up a winner too.

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    I would love to see this happen and regularly end up seeing the Ducks and Beavers regularly playing powers like Oklahoma and Texas.This would be the best thing that has happened in the state of Oregon in a long time.

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    I like conference consolidation about as much as I like media consolidation. (OK, but I'm pretty clear about which is of greater importance.)

    This is the West Coast's response to the Big 10 move to snag Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska and maybe a Big East team... er school... (Rutgers has been mentioned often). Mega conferences means mega-money, but then, I'm not so sure all that hype about the potential TV revenue will really end up paying out after the newness wears off, and TV contracts are re-evaluated and renegotiated.

    No matter how much juggling the NCAA does, there is still some basic math: Football teams can only play so many games a season, and the conference schedule will produce exactly the same aggregate number of losses as wins.

    From a sporting perspective, and as a Kansas Alum, I am way biased against this because football is directing the traffic. That one of the the most legendary programs in college hoops will be left in a devastated or non-existent conference is beyond appalling. Moreover, some of the real losers will ultimately be the student athletes playing minor sports in the schools left out of the football/TV marriages, as those sports programs will face cuts or outright elimination.

    From a sociological perspective, how pathetic is it that we have to market our academic institutions on the basis of gridiron performance? It may not be tail waggin' the dog, but the jockstrap is definitely snapping the backsides of University chancellors and presidents.

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      "Moreover, some of the real losers will ultimately be the student athletes playing minor sports in the schools left out of the football/TV marriages, as those sports programs will face cuts or outright elimination."

      How exactly would that work?

      If Oregon State continues on pace with a $6-7 million annual deficit, you can bet that minor sports will get cut.

      If, however, that turns into an annual $12-15 million surplus, I don't imagine they'll be cutting any minor sports. Might even add some.

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        There were nearly rioting in Texas over Title 9....

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Title_IX

        The only reason there's any women's sports at all in a lot of the Bible Belt is the US Congress. There more resistance to Title 9 in Texas than there was in Mississippi to Civil Rights.

        I don't want to deal with all the kicking and screaming those Texas schools will make about women's sports in the PAC-10 once they join.

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          "I don't want to deal with all the kicking and screaming those Texas schools will make about women's sports in the PAC-10 once they join."

          What are you talking about?

          U of Texas has eleven women's programs (and nine men's programs.) Texas Tech has nine women's programs (and eight men's programs.) Texas A&M has nine women's programs (and seven men's programs.)

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            U-Texas has 11 women's programs AFTER they settled a huge lawsuit against U-Texas...

            From Texas Monthly....

            "...The crisis started with a law known as Title IX, which has turned the world of scholastic sports upside down. Passed by Congress in 1972, it ultimately required that women be given equal opportunities to participate in school sports, a change that happened only gradually over the following three decades. No institution was more deeply involved in this process than the University of Texas. But in 1992 a group of female students sued the university under Title IX. They wanted more teams for women to roughly equalize the number of male and female athletes on campus. The key word was “equalize.”

            The lawsuit was immediately seen as a groundbreaking case. That was because no school had done more for women’s athletics than UT. In 1975 the university had started a women’s program and put considerable resources into it. Building on the success of coach Jody Conradt’s powerhouse basketball teams, UT women won a stunning seventeen national championships in five sports in the eighties. In spite of that, the university had remained out of compliance with Title IX, as had most schools across the country. The large number of football players—130 or more at UT—created an imbalance with the numbers of players on the smaller women’s teams. Instead of fighting the lawsuit, the university settled it, in 1993, by agreeing to start three new women’s teams: soccer, softball, and rowing. That sent shock waves across the nation: If UT could be forced to change, then everyone could. “The athletic world was watching,” said Conradt, who also served as the women’s athletics director from 1992 to 2001 and retired as head coach in 2007. “It had a major national impact, and other schools were waiting to see how the University of Texas would respond.” They soon started to follow UT’s model...."

            http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:kXv8nmy2us0J:www.texasmonthly.com/2008-11-01/feature.php+1993+lawsuit+university+texas+women%27s+soccer&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

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        Carla, I just realized that you were talking about the programs LEFT OUT of the big TV deals.

        You may be right. Of course, that only assumes that they'll get TV deals that are less rich down the road. Which may be a reasonable assumption.

        That said, I think there's certainly a place for a fairly robust 16-team western conference that would combine the best programs in the WAC, Mountain West, and what's left of the Big 12.

        (Personally, I'd like to see a D-1 football playoff run by the NCAA that would distribute money to all 120 D-1 programs, but that's another conversation.)

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          I'm not sold that the development of east and west Mega conferences is the panacea for individual programs' financial maladies - even for those schools that may be in the TV dollar mix. That being said, I can understand why the PAC 10 is leaping to try this expansion.

          For a PAC 10 team to have a shot at the BCS title game, it has to be undefeated; Big 10 powerhouses get benefit of the doubt and will play in the big game even with that stain of a loss. The PAC 10 has lost huge dollars because of this arrangement. Super expansion of the Pac and Big 10 and demolishing the Big 12 will throw that structure out the window. So, Kari, I am with you on the Div.1 playoff, and to me that's a part of the solution to PAC 10 doldrums.

          Additionally, there is no absence currently for huge TV revenues for non-conference games - the involved conferences share a portion of the marquee game's take. This is the primary reason that the Big 10 is frothing at the mouth to pull in the Irish. When Oregon schools reap the $ benefits of a USC/ND match up, it's all gravy... but this arrangenment is already working out for the PAC 10; there is no west side equivalent for Notre Dame.

          Bringing in Nebraska in may ensure a 16 way split for a Oregon/Nebraska match up instead of a 22 way split, but I' not sure its worth the potential carnage of everyone who's left out.

          The consolidation/realignment, initiated because of football, will affect every athletic program in the affected conferences, and probably well beyond. There are few winners and a host of losers, and it seems like the potential "wins" are overated.

          (Again, this is from a jaded Jayhawk!)

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    Kari,

    You're right, it wouldn't inhibit the advancement of 1-AA programs but it would probably make it rather difficult for those schools to enter a recently expanded PAC conference.

    Still don't think Texas or Midwest schools are a good fit. I say invite BSU or Fresno State first. Call it the PAC12, create West & East divisions and a championship game.

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    Not sure if it's been mentioned. Didn't read all the comments. My biggest worry would be the time-zones. Having West Coast teams having to travel two time zones away and play on a Saturday afternoon will be tough...

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    GROAN.... Kansas to the Mountain West? That's like sending the Mariners to Double A...

    I am really not seeing how the likes of Colorado will help PAC 10/11/16 raise profile and bucks for the long term, altho Boulder is a really nice town and close to great skiing.

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