Punditology 2010: Our collective, conventional wisdom

Kari Chisholm

Well, it's the morning of Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 246 folks who participated in the 2008 Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

First, the Governor's race:

• 78.5% of you think that John Kitzhaber is going to win - 28.5% by more than 2%, and 50% by less than 2%.
• 17.5% think Chris Dudley will win by less than 2%, and 3.7% think he'll win by more than that.
• There was much disagreement over the number of counties won by Kitzhaber. 20% say six or less (that's probably the Dudley winners), 22% say seven, 28% say eight, 13% say nine, 9% say ten, and a small handful more than that. The average? 7.95 counties for Kitzhaber.

Second, the federal and statewide races in Oregon:

• Zero punditologists - and yes, we had some Republicans - zero people said that Jim Huffman was going to win. Say goodnight, Jim. Hope the money was worth it.
• 64% say Wyden will get over 60% of the vote.
• 96% of you say that David Wu will defeat Rob Cornilles.
• 99% of you say that Peter DeFazio will defeat Art Robinson.
• 70% of you say that Kurt Schrader will defeat Scott Bruun. (That's some healthy confidence for a race that's considered a serious toss-up. Go volunteer!)
• 99% of you say that Ted Wheeler will defeat Chris Telfer in the Treasurer's race.

More on the jump - including U.S. Senate and other races around the country, the fight for the Oregon Legislature, some interesting local races, and all those state and local ballot measures...

In Washington:

• 90% of you think Patty Murray will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate.
• 61% of you think the GOP will pick up WA-3 with Jaime Herrera.

In California:

• 92% of you say Jerry Brown will succesfully make a comeback as Governor.
• 96% of you say Barbara Boxer will be re-elected to the Senate.

In the fight for the U.S. Senate, here's your Republican wins:

• 85% say that Marco Rubio wins out in Florida (and 11% for Charlie Crist.)
• 79% say Rand Paul holds the Kentucky seat for the GOP.
• 62% say that Russ Feingold's time is up, and the GOP picks up that seat.
• 57% say that Pat Toomey will pick up the Pennsylvania seat by defeating Joe Sestak.
• 47% say that Lisa Murkowski hangs on to her Alaska seat with a write-in vote victory. (34% say it's GOPer Joe Miller, and just 19% for Scott McAdams.)

And here's your Democratic wins:

• 95% say Chris Coons holds Joe Biden's old seat in Delaware.
• 75% say Joe Manchin hangs on to Senator Byrd's old seat in West Virginia.
• 56% say Michael Bennet wins the seat in his own right in Colorado.
• 55% deny the polls and say Harry Reid wins out in Nevada.
• 53% say that Alexi Giannoulias will win President Obama's seat in Illinois.

Overall, when it comes to control of Congress:

• 93% of you believe the Democrats will have at least 49 seats, plus Bernie Sanders - thus retaining control (without needing Joe Lieberman.)
• On average, we believe that the Democrats will control 49.9 seats (plus Sanders and Lieberman.)
• No one believes the Democrats will hold even or gain seats. A plurality of 22% believe that the final outcome is 51 (+BS&JL).
• For the House, just 25% believe the Democrats will retain 218 or more seats and control. A plurality of 41% believe that the Democrats will lose 45 to 55 seats - and have a minority caucus of 200 to 209 seats.

Now, to the legislature. The Oregon House:

• A majority of you believe these Republicans will hold on their seats: Esquivel (73%), Gilliam (83%), Wingard (81%), Kennemer (74%),
• Here's the Democratic holds: Katie Riley (67%), Schaufler (95%), Kahl (82%), Myers (63%), VanOrman (55%), Stiegler (53%)
• Here's the Republican pickups: Lindsay (59%)
• Here's the Democratic pickups: Sokol Blosser (62%), Rasmussen (76%).
• Of course, those outcomes don't really comport with your overall judgment -- in which the average predicted outcome was 32.8 seats (a loss of three) for the Democrats. A 27% plurality predict 32 seats (lose four).
• Just 1.6% predict a GOP takeover - and another 4.1% predict a 30/30 tie.

The Oregon Senate:

• We predicted no individual party flips - picking Bates (93%), Morse (86%), Starr (63%), Monroe (87%), and Barton (70%).
• And yet, our overall wisdom is that the Democrats will wind up with 16.8 seats -- a loss of at least one seat. And yes, a plurality of 33% picked 17 seats as the outcome.
• Just 1.2% predict a GOP takeover - and another 11.4% predict a 15/15 tie. (By the way, 3% of you predicted BOTH a 15/15 Senate tie and a 30/30 House tie. Chaos!)

To the local races:

• 58% predicted a Metro President win by Tom Hughes over Bob Stacey.
• 53% predicted a win by Loretta Smith over Karol Collymore in Multnomah County.
• 70% say that Sid Leiken will win in Lane County.
• 56% say that Mary Stern will win re-election in Yamhill County.
• 78% believe that Ann Lininger will win in Clackamas County.
• 58% think Melody Thompson will in the Clackamas County Clerk race.
• 55% believe Greg Malinowski and 59% believe Bob Terry will win in their respective Washington County races.

The statewide ballot measures:

• 99% say Measure 70 will win (home ownership for veterans)
• 72% say Measure 71 will win (annual sessions)
• 80% say Measure 72 will win (state borrowing limit)
• 54% say Measure 73 will win (minimum sentencing)
• 76% say Measure 74 will lose (medical marijuana dispensaries)
• 90% say Measure 75 will lose (Wood Village taxable casino)
• 86% say Measure 76 will win (lottery funding for parks, wildlife, and water)

And finally, the local measures:

• 62% say 26-108, voter-owned elections, will pass.
• 53% say 26-109, term limits for Multnomah County, will fail.
• 66% say 26-118, Oregon historical society funding, will pass.

To see the full results, go here. And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

By Kari Chisholm Nov. 02, 2010