Tonight, SurveyUSA and KATU released the first independent media poll in the race for Mayor of Portland. Previously, others have reported on internal polls from the Eileen Brady campaign and the Portland Business Alliance.
Interestingly, SurveyUSA/KATU asked respondents about two separate sets of candidates: 1) the announced candidates (Brady, Hales, Smith), and 2) those three, plus Chief Mike Reese, who is considering a run.
Among the three announced candidates, Eileen Brady is at 23%, Charlie Hales 19%, and Jefferson Smith 14%. A huge 44% of voters are undecided.
When voters are asked about Mike Reese as well, he leads with 20%, Brady is at 19%, Hales 13%, and Smith 11%. 38% of voters are undecided.
No one candidate should be labeled the "leader" based on these results, and no one candidate should be dismissed based on these results. Instead, the contest should be characterized as fluid, and hotly contested, with twice as many voters sitting on the sidelines as are yet committed to any one candidate. Re-positioning is likely as the undecided voters make-up their minds, and as Chief Reese decides to stay-out or jump-in.
- Brady is strong among women, seniors, and affluent voters.
- Smith is strong among males and Tea Party members.
- Hales is strong among Republicans, conservatives, and the less educated.
- Reese is strong among Republicans, conservatives, and the less educated, and when Reese is in the race, he siphons votes directly from Hales.
Here's a rundown of all previous polling:
|2011-11-07||SurveyUSA||19||13||11||38||20 - Reese|
|2011-10-30||Brady for Mayor||26||16||10||48|
|2011-10-02||Portland Business Alliance||15||13||9||42||22 - |
Update, February 28, 2012: Please see the clarifying note on this later post regarding the edit to the PBA polling results.