The first non-campaign associated poll in a couple of months has come out. It was conducted for Fox/OPB by DHM Research (a generally respected Portland polling firm) April 28-30.
To the numbers!
The research involved a scientific telephone survey of 400 City of Portland likely voters.
If the election were held today, would you vote for Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, or one of the other candidates?
Charlie Hales: 25% Eileen Brady: 23% Jefferson Smith: 20%
That means a couple of things: first, it's a wide open race, within the margin of error. Second, Smith and Hales have gained significantly over the last few months (Smith by six to ten points, Hales by six to nine points clarification: in the independent polls), unless the poll methodology was significantly different (
as they've pulled the links, I can't say).
Here's a compilation of all the polls in the race [from Kari].
|2012-03-26||Hales for Mayor||21||21||11||39|
|2012-02-27||SurveyUSA||25||16||10||28||7 - Arrow, 3 - Dant, 2 - Brumm, 8 - "another candidate"|
|2011-11-07||SurveyUSA||19||13||11||38||20 - Reese|
|2011-10-30||Brady for Mayor||26||16||10||48|
|2011-10-02||Portland Business Alliance||15||13||9||42||22 - "one of the other candidates"|
Disclaimer: I've endorsed Smith, as has Bike Walk Vote, which I co-chair. I speak only for myself.