New Poll in Portland Mayoral Race

Evan Manvel

The first non-campaign associated poll in a couple of months has come out. It was conducted for Fox/OPB by DHM Research (a generally respected Portland polling firm) April 28-30.

To the numbers!

The research involved a scientific telephone survey of 400 City of Portland likely voters.

If the election were held today, would you vote for Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, or one of the other candidates?

Charlie Hales: 25% Eileen Brady: 23% Jefferson Smith: 20%

That means a couple of things: first, it's a wide open race, within the margin of error. Second, Smith and Hales have gained significantly over the last few months (Smith by six to ten points, Hales by six to nine points clarification: in the independent polls), unless the poll methodology was significantly different (as they've pulled the links, I can't say).

Here's a compilation of all the polls in the race [from Kari].

DatePollBradyHalesSmithUndOther
2012-04-28DHM Research232520286
2012-03-26Hales for Mayor21211139
2012-02-27SurveyUSA251610287 - Arrow, 3 - Dant, 2 - Brumm, 8 - "another candidate"
2011-11-07SurveyUSA23191444
2011-11-07SurveyUSA1913113820 - Reese
2011-10-30Brady for Mayor26161048
2011-10-02Portland Business Alliance151394222 - "one of the other candidates"

More results from the poll itself.

Reactions?

Disclaimer: I've endorsed Smith, as has Bike Walk Vote, which I co-chair. I speak only for myself.

Comments

    • (Show?)

      And let's remember the important thing in this race is to finish in the top two. It's clear that nobody is going to get over 50%, so the top two will face off in November.

  • (Show?)

    Had to remove spaces, only:

    Posted: May 02, 2012 4:45 PM PDT Updated: May 02, 2012 6:55 PM PDT By FOX 12 Webstaff - email PORTLAND, OR (KPTV) - The following is a FOX 12-OPB poll by DHM Research conducted between April 28 and April 30.

    The research involved a scientific telephone survey of 400 City of Portland likely voters.

    If the election were held today, would you vote for Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, or one of the other candidates?

    N=400

    Total Charlie Hales 25%

    Total Eileen Brady
    23%

    Total Jefferson Smith
    20%

    Other
    6%

    Undecided
    28%

    If voting for Charlie Hales, are there any particular reasons why you are voting for Charlie Hales?

    N=99

    Has much experience in city government

    37%

    Most qualified/experienced candidate

    12%

    Familiar with Portland area

    7%

    Endorsed by people/sources I respect

    5%

    Familiar with his name

    4%

    Personal background/work in transportation

    4%

    Maintain streets/roads—fixed potholes

    3%

    Proven leadership

    3%

    Prefer him over other candidate

    2%

    Professional/businesslike

    2%

    All other responses

    1% or less

    None

    1%

    Don't know

    15%

    If voting for Eileen Brady, are there any particular reasons why you are voting for Eileen Brady?

    N=90

    Businesswoman/local business owner

    33%

    Is a woman

    12%

    Started ‘New Seasons', which gives back to the community

    9%

    Very friendly/like her personality

    7%

    Will create jobs/stimulate economy

    7%

    Fresh voice in politics/newcomer

    4%

    Similar outlook to mine

    3%

    Great work ethic

    2%

    She's a Portlander

    2%

    All other responses

    2% or less

    None

    16%

    Don't know

    2%

    If voting for Jefferson Smith, why are you voting for Jefferson Smith?

    N=79

    Fresh ideas

    9%

    Pro-education stance

    9%

    Experience/knowledge of government

    8%

    Most sincere candidate

    6%

    Recommendation from a friend

    6%

    From/represents the eastside

    6%

    Television appearance/ads

    6%

    Grew up in Portland/from this area

    5%

    Opposes the Columbia River Project

    4%

    Progressive

    4%

    Pragmatic about our economy

    3%

    Problem solver

    3%

    All other responses

    2% or less

    None

    3%

    Don't know

    24%

    If undecided, what do you want to know about the candidates before you make your final decision?

    Response Category

    N=110

    Stance on issues, in relation to my needs

    18%

    Views on education

    6%

    Their priorities

    5%

    Endorsements

    5%

    Morals

    5%

    Track record/accomplishments

    5%

    Vision for city/that they have the community at heart

    4%

    Stance on job creation

    4%

    Where they are on social issues

    4%

    That they are honest

    3%

    All other responses

    2% or less

    None

    12%

    Don't know

    22%

  • (Show?)

    I got called this evening from Nevada by a research firm (Alway?) doing polling on the mayoral race for the Oregonian. They also polled on the Nolan-Fritz race and asked questions about the relative importance of city activities (bikes vs. cars, mostly). And whether I lived east or west of 82nd. So, there should some additional results to chew on soon.

  • (Show?)

    FYI, I updated Evan's post to include the full polling chart for the race.

    Full disclosure: My firm built Eileen Brady's campaign website. I speak only for myself.

  • (Show?)

    Personally, the most fascinating result in this poll is the hypothetical four-way matchup that includes Sam Adams.

    In this poll, we'd be looking at a four-way tie - Hales 22, Brady 21, Adams 18, Smith 17, Undecided 23.

    Of course, had he run, the dynamic would be different and events would not have been the same - but it's fascinating to see that it'd be a four-way race with more undecideds than committed to any one candidate.

  • (Show?)

    The same poll also shows Amanda Fritz leading Mary Nolan by a margin of 32 to 25. Full details from OPB (pdf).

    • (Show?)

      Which is generally good news for team Nolan - as Fritz's March polling had her up 44-10%.

      It could be a long election night/week, and this race could go to November, with 3% or 4% going to the other three candidates on the ballot.

      There are a whole lot of undecided folks out there.

      Time for me to stop blogging and start knocking doors for Mary Nolan, about whom the Tribune wrote: “among the most qualified candidates to run for city commissioner in recent years" and the Willamette Week wrote: "We have no doubts about [Nolan's] ability to lead and her track record of accomplishment."

  • (Show?)

    In spite of the topline result which suggests a closing of the well-established gap between Jefferson Smith and the other top tier candidates, I find the details of this poll to be more bad news than good for Rep. Smith. If you take a look at the additional survey questions which asked respondents to sight the reason for supporting their preferred candidate, you’ll find that while Eileen Brady and Charlie Hales have both done an effective job of sharing their narratives with Portland voters, Rep. Smith has not.

    For Brady, 33% of respondents say they are supporting her because she is a “businesswoman/local business owner,” the most common response. The second most common reason sighted was that she “is a woman” at 12%.

    For Hales, 37% of respondents are supporting him because he “has much experience in city government” followed by “most qualified/experienced candidate,” at 12%.

    Both of these results are in line with the message their respective campaigns have been pushing. The gap between the top two responses for each demonstrates that their messages have sunk in.

    For Rep. Smith, however, there doesn’t seem to be an easily identifiable reason respondents have chosen to support him. In fact, the most common reason his supporters sighted was “Don’t Know” at 24%. Of the actual reasons to support him, respondents gave “Fresh ideas” 9%, “Pro-education stance” 9%, “Experience/knowledge of government” 8%, and on down from there. (Notably “Opposes the Columbia River Crossing” only gets 4%.)

    To me, this demonstrates that while Eileen Brady and Charlie Hales have made it plain to voters why they believe they are the best person to lead Portland, Jefferson Smith hasn’t presented a simple, compelling reason of his own.

    Under those circumstances, it’s hard to imagine how a plurality of undecided will break for him, which he’ll need in order to make the run-off.

  • (Show?)

    New Survey USA poll out: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f5cfed5e-4284-4b22-b6ab-e2420cfc6016

    The age and gender breakdowns are fascinating.

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