Punditology 2012: what's our collective, conventional wisdom?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

At long last, it is finally Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 189 folks who participated in the 2012 Oregon Primary Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work, and prove us all wrong!)

Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.

To the predictions!


First, there's no surprise in the Presidential. 98% think Mitt Romney wins it, and 90% of us think he'll get over 50% of the vote. 74% think Ron Paul places second. And 53% think Rick Santorum comes in third behind Romney and Paul. (And speaking of federal races, 80% think Fred Thompson will beat Karen Bowerman for the right to challenge Congressman Kurt Schrader.)

Second, the Attorney General race. 56% of you think that Ellen Rosenblum will defeat Dwight Holton. In Punditology terms, that's pretty much a toss-up. (Keep in mind that in 2010, 97% of us thought John Kitzhaber would win - and that outcome required 48 hours of vote-counting to settle.)

Third, the Mayor's race:

Fourth, the Portland City Council races:

More on the jump, including the barnburner primary challenges between Mike Schaufler and Jeff Reardon, and Tim Knopp and Chris Telfer...

Oregon Supreme Court: This is a total mystery heading into election night. 46% think Tim Sercombe makes the runoff (and another 17% think he wins outright). 47% think Dick Baldwin makes the runoff (and another 9% think he wins outright.) And 43% think Nena Cook makes the runoff (and another 7% think she wins outright.)

Clackamas County Commission:

Jackson County: 72% of us think Rob Patridge either wins or leads the race for DA.

Lane County: 77% of us think Pete Sorenson wins re-election over Andy Stahl, while 59% of us think Pat Farr (a former Republican legislator) will defeat Rob Handy.

Multnomah County: 91% of us think the library levy will pass.

Washington County: 91% of us are calling it for Dick Schouten over his challenger, Betty Bode.

Metro Council: 48% think Sam Chase wins outright, while 42% think he'll place first and wind up in a runoff. 5% think Helen Ying will win outright, while 4% say she'll lead heading into the runoff.

And finally, the legislative primary races:

To see the full results, go here. And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

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