Strong finish by Jefferson Smith
Kari Chisholm
Once the candidates for mayor had given their speeches on Tuesday night, most folks stopped paying attention to the vote count. But if that includes you, you've missed out on one of the big stories in the mayor's race.
Check it out. Here's a chart that shows how the vote count shifted from the initial 8:01 p.m. count on Tuesday night to the eighth count late last night.
That's right. The initial count was Hales 38.5, Smith 28.8, Brady 24.1 The eighth (and very nearly final) count has it Hales 37.3, Smith 32.8, Brady 21.8. As the count progressed, Charlie Hales's margin over Jefferson Smith collapsed from nearly ten points to less than five points.
Everyone went to bed on Tuesday night thinking that Charlie Hales had sole ownership of frontrunner status - with Jefferson closer to Eileen than to Charlie. It's clear now that this is going to be a lot closer of a race heading into the fall campaign.
Clearly, two things happened: 1) Late-deciding voters broke hard for Jefferson Smith (and against Eileen Brady.) 2) The Smith campaign did a great job turning out their vote.
In the fall, the electorate in Portland will trend younger, more diverse, and even more progressive.
Anyone who thinks this is a slam dunk for Charlie Hales need to think again.
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3:36 p.m.
May 17, '12
Full disclosure: My firm built Eileen Brady's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
11:11 a.m.
May 31, '12
I don't know anyone who thinks this is a slam dunk for Hales but first place is always a good place to be.
3:36 p.m.
May 17, '12
Vote-counting, by the way, is basically over. At this point, all that's left are ballots that have to be hand-counted (torn, soaked, etc.) and ones that got mistakenly delivered to other counties. (A ballot is still good if it made it to any election authority in Oregon by 8 p.m. on election night.)
3:52 p.m.
May 17, '12
I wondered if it might go that way. I got my ballot to the library Tuesday night, oh, 7:30-ish.
Procrastinators are united in their support of Jefferson Smith!
4:05 p.m.
May 17, '12
i got my replacement ballot at 750pm and voted by 759pm. Smith got my Mayorial vote ;-)
4:03 p.m.
May 17, '12
As voters were getting ready to make their decisions at their dinner tables, Jefferson's volunteers were at the doors making the case that he's the most progressive, has tremendous experience, and will make a great mayor of our city.
Hat Tip to Rachel Richardson, Field Director, and Stacey Dycus, Campaign Director for mobilizing Jefferson's supporters into a tremendous people-powered campaign.
Looking ahead to what the fall cycle will bring, it is easy to predict that organized labor, including the Portland Association of Teachers, the Portland Firefighters, and AFSCME (the largest union of city of Portland employees) -all of which endorsed Jefferson Smith- will be better mobilized for the fall Presidential campaign and Jefferson, as their down-ticket choice, will benefit.
Jefferson's momentum looks quite strong for an "underdog."
4:12 p.m.
May 17, '12
I thought this might happen since there was no question that the GOTV would hugely favor Jefferson.
Still, quite impressive how much it closed, far more than even I would have thought/hoped.
4:25 p.m.
May 17, '12
I feel that a much higher percentage of Eileen's voters will vote for Jeff in November. I think Charlie is in trouble.
4:53 p.m.
May 17, '12
I hope you're right, Alan!
2:04 a.m.
May 19, '12
I voted for Brady (liked Smith as well) and I'm leaning towards Smith in November. So that's a data point of one.
4:36 p.m.
May 17, '12
The man says tell the truth and work your ass off. (Actually that's what his lovely wife said to him!) We just did what was asked--put it all on the line, work as hard as you can...then work some more. That's why those of us who know him have always felt positive about his chances despite the challenges--Jefferson can inspire and motivate people to move mountains. He inspired me to spend more and do more by FAR than for any other candidate in my political history. And I don't even live in Portland.
4:50 p.m.
May 17, '12
As and East Portlander and a procratinator, I truddled over to the Midland Libray on 122nd w/ a scant 25 minutes to go. Smartly, I parked on a side street and avoided the 2 way backup on 122nd that resembled downtown at rush hour. The Library lot was full with a circle of cars - their drivers (semi)patiently awaiting their turns to to drop ballots in a not-so-convenient motorist box. A singled orange-vested soul standing in the middle of the 122nd turn lane was powerless to deal with the onslaught of procrastinaors and seemed overwhelmed by the volume of traffic.
My point is this - a huge number of ballots came in from the Eastside and likely were counted in later tallies. After the elction is cerified, I will be anxious to see how East-of-82nd precincts voted in the various races, esp. the Mayor's.
5:28 p.m.
May 17, '12
I think you have graphed cumulative percentages. If you have the data, did Jefferson's votes exceed Charlie's votes in any of the later batches tabulated.
7:05 p.m.
May 17, '12
the first tally was:
Charlie Hales - 24,991 - 39% Jefferson Smith - 18,653 - 29% Eileen Brady - 15,639 - 24%
currently showing at the Multnomah site we have
Hales: 47,865 Smith: 42,115 Brady: 27,975
Thus, the math for the later votes is
Hales: 22,874 Smith: 23,462 Brady: 12,336
Smith "won" the late votes.
7:27 p.m.
May 17, '12
I canvassed a lot of doors, and I have never seen so many people aware of the candidates and still undecided. People who cared had a hard time choosing. Because they couldn't decide, it did not take much encouragement to swing them. I think Jefferson's ground game, which was always his strategy, won in the end.
10:00 p.m.
May 17, '12
Yes, I think it was a very unstable electorate. And exactly the sort of race where something could cause it to tumble in a single direction.
It was that "something" that every campaign was trying to find.
Obviously, whatever it was, Team Jefferson found it.
1:22 a.m.
May 18, '12
For a lot of people, it was the magic phrase "first mayor East of 82nd." It was obvious quickly that phrase had appeal to people...east of 82nd. If Jefferson can pull more than a typical number of votes out of Outer East, he can overcome deficits in other areas. When you've got people knocking 200+ doors in a single day, it's possible. Jeff is the classic info-voter's candidate. If you let him have a foot in the door, you're going to buy that vacuum cleaner.
9:11 p.m.
May 17, '12
As a long time admirer of Jefferson Smith I am pleased that he has advanced to the general election.
Given the election of a woman DA in Jackson County, the election of Nordbye in District 52 to oppose Johnson should we reflect upon the Oregonian values. By that I mean folks who identify with the hope and promise that Oregon represented to many, certainly in my lifetime.
Look at France and the rejection of austerity. Look, for God's Sake, at Iceland. They totally told the banksters to take a long walk of a short dock. Threw out the government and rewrote the Constitution.
Here, in America, with three billion dollars on your credit card Mr. and Mrs. America JP Morgan is praised by the President as a fine institution. They lose. YOU PAY. Don't the people who did not want a casino in the Gorge get it?
Reject Walden, Romney, (RAW MONEY_ and try to restore the Elizabeth Warren values in Oregon. Support Jefferson Smith for mayor and tell Charlie, SORRY CHARLIE!
6:10 p.m.
May 18, '12
Kari, I admire your post election spin, and am not surprised to see the sudden love for Brady among the Smith supporters. A few days makes all the difference!
But if course, you have no idea how the late deciders actually decided. They may have cast an "anti" Brady vote, they may have broke "for" Smith.
But there are many other possibilities. It may be that Smith voters may just generally be the kinds of voters who hold their ballots until the end. It may be that they weren't paying attention until the last few days. It may be that they tended to hand deliver to libraries rather than mail.
I find thus just as likely as your implicit claim of last minute voters choosing between Brady and Jeff.
11:28 a.m.
May 19, '12
Interesting analysis - and it agrees with what I was seeing over the past couple months, which was Jefferson gaining, Brady falling, and Hales staying steady. With Jefferson's climb, the late votes turned in his favor. Take a look at the Fritz/Nolan race, you also see late votes breaking for Fritz. The first returns actually showed Nolan ahead, but later ballots reversed that giving Fritz the lead. Many of the same statements about the Mayor race could be said about the Council 1 race, including a strong GOTV effort by the Fritz campaign. The make up of the voters who will vote in the General Election as opposed to the primary works in Fritz's favor.
7:21 a.m.
May 20, '12
Well, analyzing the post-election vote counts doesn't tell you anything about what happened over the "past couple months". Since everything turned in before election day is included in the first count, the later counts only really tell you about the ballots that were turned in on election day.
In other words, it ain't about the last mile of the marathon, it's about the kick at the finish line.
11:23 a.m.
May 20, '12
For some reason I gained a couple points in the late voting - not as much as Jefferson, but I went from seventy-three something to seventy-five something. So if anyone's building a unified theory of late voters, that's another data point to throw into the mix.