In my mind, there's no better election analyst out there than Nate Silver. First as an anonymous polling blogger and now as a columnist and analyst for the New York Times, he's got an approach that's deeply quantitative.
In most presidential elections, Oregon makes the early list of 17 swing states - but as the races moves on, we're never on the list of half-dozen swing states. This year, however, there never was a big list -- we seemed to have moved immediately to the short list. And Oregon's not on it.
If there is an unheralded state that could be in play this year, it might be Oregon. Oregon has been sparsely polled, but the most recent survey found a tight race there, and the state has been extremely competitive in the past — like in 2000 when Al Gore won it by less than a full percentage point.
Of course, Oregon 2000 featured Ralph Nader. What do you think? Could Oregon get in play this year? Does the lack of a Governor's race and Senate race matter (in terms of turnout and a coordinated campaign operation)?