PPP polling numbers in Oregon
Kari Chisholm
Well, we've finally got numbers from that PPP poll in Oregon over the weekend. So far, it's all straight hard-news political stuff. No word on any wackiness that I was hoping for. (My suggestion: Timbers favorables vs. Blazers favorables?)
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Obama is up by just 8%, 50-42. PPP notes that it's independents who have "really turned against Obama", supporting Romney 52-30.
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Obama favorables are 49/46, while Romney's are upside down at 37/51.
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For Secretary of State, Kate Brown is crushing the great GOP hope, Knute Buehler, by a 48-30 margin.
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For Treasurer, Ted Wheeler is up on write-in nominee Tom Cox by a 46-34 margin.
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For Attorney General, Ellen Rosenblum is up 46-33 over write-in nominee James Buchal by a 46-33 margin.
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For Labor Commissioner, however, Brad Avakian is barely trailing (PPP says "essentially tied with") Bruce Starr at 23-21, with 56% undecided.
So, what explains Avakian's poor numbers? It's simple -- it's a nonpartisan race, and so the D/R identifiers aren't there. The power of those partisan markers is plain, especially noting that Buchal is in the same exact place as Cox (who ran for Governor in 2002) and Buehler's (who's been actively running for months, and was on the primary ballot.)
It's going to be critical for Democrats who support Brad Avakian to make sure that everyone knows that he's a Democrat and Bruce Starr is a Republican, if nothing else. (And there's much, much more that differentiates them, of course.)
PPP has also published crosstabs (pdf). I haven't had a chance to dig in yet. You find anything interesting in there?
3:41 p.m.
Jun 26, '12
Full disclosure: My firm built campaign websites for Kate Brown and Brad Avakian. I speak only for myself.
5:02 p.m.
Jun 26, '12
These are numbers I expected. I believe the Obama numbers will improve somewhat as Indies get to know Romney and his character as a jerk, and his "business record" as a corporate raider who loves to do leveraged buyouts of companies, close factories, fire workers, and profit from sending the jobs overseas. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLo0Jwj03JU&feature=player_embedded
5:07 p.m.
Jun 26, '12
The "quirky" and other questions will follow in the next couple of days. They are released first on Twitter. This one today: Which is the favorite city of Democrats? Portland
Republicans? Bend
7:57 p.m.
Jun 26, '12
Just got polled by an 'anonymous' outfit (when questioned, dialer said he wasn't given any info on who was sponsoring the poll). Started out fine with general Nov election questions, but a few minutes in the push-type questions started against Barker and for Castaneda. Couldn't get any info out of the guy so I declined to participate further. Nothing on the caller ID either.
10:38 a.m.
Jun 27, '12
Probably just negative message testing, setting up arguments for the campaigns. Happens all the time.
9:37 p.m.
Jun 26, '12
This is potentially huge with consequences for the Dark Money Super PACs . The New York AG, Schneiderman, is pursuing investigation and potential lawsuits and prosecution of money laundering of secret donors foreign and domestic funneling money through the US Chamber of Commerce and Rove's front organizations to fund these Super Pacs and their Campaign Ads. http://t.co/RY4LFCOu
4:30 p.m.
Jun 27, '12
Ok, so I had to look at the crosstabs. Maybe it's just my inexperience with such things, but I found it a bit odd that 14% of those who identified as Very Liberal and 17% of those who identified as Somewhat Liberal had a Favorable Opinion of Romney. Likewise, 6% of each category actually chose Romney over Obama. I could see those folks going Green, but Romney? Really?
12:02 p.m.
Jun 28, '12
They lied about their ideological self-characterization. People do.