Two polls: Merkley leads Wehby by double digits

Kari Chisholm

In the latest poll in the U.S. Senate race, Senator Jeff Merkley leads Monica Wehby by a margin of 50% to 36%.

The poll, by PPP, was done from May 22 to 27, with a 3.2% margin of error.

Another poll, by Rasmussen, showed Merkley with a lead of 47% to 37%. That poll was done May 21-22 and has a 4% margin.

In PPP's analysis, Wehby is failing to make in-roads with the independents that she would need to win -- and her personal travails are bogging her down:

For a Republican to win in Oregon they would need to take independents - likely by a substantial margin - and get a strong level of crossover support from Democrats. But right now Wehby isn't succeeding on either of those fronts. Merkley leads with independents by the same 14 point margin he has overall, 45/31. And both he and Wehby are winning 11% of voters across party lines, which given the state's Democratic advantage plays to Merkley's benefit.

The bad news stories Wehby's had to deal with over the last few weeks have caused her to make an overall poor first impression on Oregonians. Only 26% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 40% with a negative one. Merkley's approval numbers aren't setting the world on fire- 41% approve and 34% disapprove, but they're good enough given Wehby's early struggles.

Discuss.

By Kari Chisholm May 29, 2014