Speculating about '08

Wow. Steve Law at the Statesman-Journal has been a busy guy, chasing down 2008 analysis and rumors.

A few choice cuts:

"I think 2008 is going to be a very difficult year for Republicans," Kulongoski said after the 2007 session ended....

"[Iraq is] contaminating our national message and brand," [GOP consultant Chuck] Adams said. "We are totally branded, more so than what I've ever seen."...

No one expects Democrats to lose their hold on the Senate any time soon. They have a 18-11 majority, and are likely to win the seat of retiring independent Avel Gordly of Portland....

The House, where Democrats are nursing a 31-29 majority, will be the key battleground....

House Republican Leader Wayne Scott of Canby said after the session that he only knew of one House Republican not running again: former Speaker Karen Minnis of Wood Village....

Democrats also are losing some incumbents. Gordly and Sen. Kate Brown, D-Portland, aren't running for re-election. Multiple sources said Rep. Carolyn Tomei, D-Milwaukie, and Sen. Ryan Deckert, D-Beaverton, likely won't run again....

If, as expected, Sen. Ben Westlund, D-Tumalo, runs for treasurer, Rep. Chuck Burley, R-Bend, is considered a favorite to take that seat away from Democrats. But Democrats then would have a shot at taking Burley's House seat....

Brown, who gave up her post as Senate majority leader as the session ended, is considered a top prospect for a statewide run. "Kate Brown didn't resign from the majority office to go to a nunnery," [lobbyist Tom] Gallagher said....

House Speaker Jeff Merkley, D-Portland, also could challenge U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Pendleton. Merkley would have to give up his powerful House post after one term....

Multiple sources said there could be a battle for House majority leader, the No. 2 post in the chamber. Rep. Diane Rosenbaum, D-Portland, who lost an earlier bid for the job to Dave Hunt, D-Gladstone, may try again. House Democrats will name some new leaders July 12 in a caucus meeting at the Capitol.

Read the rest. Discuss.

Comments

  • (Show?)

    The Tomei rumor is interesting, since her and Rosenbaum make up Brown's senate seat. I wonder if the rumor turns out to be that she isn't running for the house seat because she is going to go for the senate seat. I'm not sure Rosenbaum is ready to leave the house, since she is in a leadership position.

    And don't forget that State Representative Greg Macpherson is rumored to be looking at the AG race.

    I've also heard rumors about some other potential openings in the Portland metro area. It was obvious looking around Emerging Leaders Day at the state capitol that others knew about those rumors too, based on the house districts represented.

    This could be an extremely busy primary season in Portland next year. We'll have county commission, Portland mayor, Portland city council, plus several house and senate seats.

    It's a great opportunity for up-and-coming leaders in the Portland metro area to seriously consider running for office next year. Now is the time to do it, since many of these races will be decided in May, which is less than a year away.

  • JLI (unverified)
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    Locally, Oregon is a democratic state. Period.

    Nationally, the GOP is in a slump but the Dems don't have stellar numbers either. The electorate is just bitter right now towards everyone.

    I just don't see a Democrat in the White House in 2008 though. If Gore and Kerry couldn't carry a single southern state, how is Hillary? She might do well in the general national polls, but in the electoral college she has serious problems in key states. If Hillary cannot tell when her own husband is lying, how can she work with international leaders? It's ridiculous she could even think she's qualified as president.

    I'm not a big fan of any of the Republicans in the race, but just like in 2004, people will realize it's irresponsible to put a Democrat in an era where national security is of utmost importance. Democrats may have the edge on health care, the environment and even immigration, but they are completely off base on the most important issues - defense and taxes.

  • Ron (unverified)
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    JLI says : "I'm not a big fan of any of the Republicans in the race, but just like in 2004, people will realize it's irresponsible to put a Democrat in an era where national security is of utmost importance. Democrats may have the edge on health care, the environment and even immigration, but they are completely off base on the most important issues - defense and taxes."

    That is hilarious logic. Republicans have ceded the high ground when it comes to national security, not that they ever should have held it. The scare and terror party has us stuck in an endless, pointless quagmire and quite frankly haven't a clue when it comes to national security. Fighting a 4th generation conflict with conventional forces? That's republicans for ya. Selling war and killing as a brand? That's republicans for ya. AWOL for securing our ports? Yep, republicans. The party of authority worshipping bootlickers, most of whom have never seen the business end of a weapon of war and would probably pee their collective panties if they did. (my apologies to Republican veterans, but you know who I'm talking about...)

  • 2008 (unverified)
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    Uh, have you looked at the field of Republican presidential candidates? It's fucking scary.

    A Demo will win in 2008.

  • Dem (unverified)
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    Carolyn Tomei will return to the House for at least one more term.

    Diane Rosenbaum and Jackie Dingfelder, however, will leave the House for the overwhelmingly-Democratic Senate seats left open by Kate Brown and Avel Gordley, respectively.

  • (Show?)

    Our top target is Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith. His attempt to portray himself as a moderate flies in the face of his actual votes. Between 2003 and 2007 Mr. Smith has voted 20 times in support of the Iraq War. He has, with his fellow Republicans, obstructed almost every bill in the Senate since the Democrats became the majority party. His attempts to reinvent himself the minute his plane lands in Oregon as a Blue State Republican now translates into "He's a right-wing Bush backer and a fake advocate for ending the Iraq War." He's pandering to the Democrats.

  • (Show?)

    Interesting that Scott doesn't mention himself or Donna Nelson as likely retirements...

  • (Show?)

    Plus, I'm pretty sure that Brian Boquist has announced his retirement from politics. At least, that's what the Oregonian reported:

    "The Democrats came in with an agenda, and they left with the agenda complete," said Rep. Brian Boquist, R-Dallas. An Army reservist who served multiple tours in Iraq, Boquist was considered a rising star in the party. But as the session came to a close, a dispirited Boquist announced his retirement from politics. "You get to the point of, is it worth it?" Boquist said.
  • Insider (unverified)
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    There will be many, many House Republican retirements for this election cycle. Karen Minnis, Brian Boquist, Wayne Scott, and Donna Nelson are just the beginning. Chuck Burley, Patti Smith, and John Dallum are also likely to leave. They might lose one third of their entire caucus. Democrats have a very viable chance to win several of those seats if they nominate hard-working, moderate candidates.

    There will be very, very few House Democratic departures. Probably only Diane Rosenbaum (running for Kate Brown's senate seat), Jackie Dingfelder (running for Avel Gordley's senate seat), and Greg Macpherson (running for attorney general) will leave the House next year. All of them will leave behind very safe Democratic seats that can be won again.

    2008 could be another great year for Oregon Democrats!

  • LiberalIncarnate (unverified)
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    The Oregon Leg Dems have served themselves and the state well in this last session. I have little doubt that either side of the Leg will return to the Republicans.

    I am proud to have Rosenbaum as my representative. If she ran for State Senate I would be equally proud to have her there as well. Her seat would remain quite safely Democratic.

    Nationally... which is not the purpose of this post, Obama has the best chance of winning overall. Hillary can win, but only because the Republican candidates are so lacking. And, I do not think that she cannot tell a liar when she sees one... aka Bill. She is pretty damn smart and qualified. She is just not the fresh face that Obama is and her negatives are considerably higher in the polls.

    Let's face it though, the Dems need to plan on winning without Ohio and Florida in '08. Those states are screwed and rigged. Colorado and Virgina are slowly becoming swing states, however.

  • Scott Jorgensen (unverified)
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    Hillary Clinton has been as much of a hawk on this war as Bush. Nominating her puts Democrats in the same position they were in during the 04 election--having to support a candidate that supports the war. And if anti-war Democrats nominate her, they're shooting themselves directly in the foot, as well as ensuring a strong Republican turnout. You guys have a large field of candidates, any of whom would be better than Hillary.

  • (Show?)

    From WW Murmors:

    State Sen. Avel Gordly 's announcement that she won't seek re-election next year has set off a chain-reaction fire alarm in the independent's Northeast Portland district. Although nothing is official yet, Democratic Rep. Jackie Dingfelder is expected to run for Gordly's Senate seat. And that would open a House seat for several wannabes. Included in that mix of possibles are the Bus Project's Jefferson Smith; Chris Garrett, a lawyer at Perkins Coie and former aide to Senate President Peter Courtney; Portland Community College English instructor Michael Dembrow; and Cyreena Boston, who's worked as the constituency director for the Democratic Party of Oregon.

  • (Show?)

    There are a lot of shockers, but none more then that of Minnis retiring. I'll give 5-1 odds that she becomes a political consultant. Anyone willing to take the bet?

    I used to be in Carolyn Tomei's district when I was in Milwaukie. It wouldn't suprise me if she opted to run for Brown's vacant seat in the Senate.

    It seems like 2008 will be the year of musical chairs in terms of political seats in Oregon.

  • (Show?)

    Chuck Burley, Patti Smith, and John Dallum are also likely to leave. They might lose one third of their entire caucus.

    "Insider" (if indeed your are), please, please, please, tell me what you know about Patti Smith retiring. I've heard this rumor from a few sources, but no one offers any quotes, statements, actions, or anything else to bolster the rumor.

    Offer some hope to those of us that have campaigned against her for the last three cycles.

  • (Show?)

    Rosenbaum has never even said she's thinking about running for the Senate. Just throwing that out there.

  • Milwaukian (unverified)
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    I'd be really surprised if Carolyn Tomei runs for Kate Brown's Senate seat. I predict she'll run for and win one more two-year term in the House.

    Diane Rosenbaum, on the other hand, has more seniority than Tomei and could easily be elected in that very liberal Democratic Senate district. I predict that she run for and win a four-year term in the Senate.

  • John Mulvey (unverified)
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    Brian Boquist also pledged from the House floor that if the bill restricting employee non-compete agreements passed, he'd move his business out of Oregon. Wonder where he's going to go?

    John

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    I live in District 45 (Jackie Dingfelder's district) and it's going to be an interesting and fun primary season. I've gotten to know Cyreena Boston through her work at the DPO, and she just left her job there to avoid conflict of interest. It's no rumour that she plans to run for the seat. She's doing it.

    I think she's a good fit for the district.

  • (Show?)

    I agree with Jenny G. Cyreena is a great fit for the district, she's been in touch with what's going on there, has been listening to constituents there for some time now, etc.

    I've gotten to know Cyreena through her work at the DPO, and I think she would make an excellent state representative.

    <hr/>

    Patton:

    With the news of Kate Brown not running again being so sudden (unlike Gordly, which we've known about for some time), I'm sure Rosenbaum hasn't talked about running for the State Senate. Until now, it wasn't open.

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    FYI: Patton Price was Diane Rosenbaum's aide during this last session. If anyone would know her plans, Patton would.

  • (Show?)

    I'm sure he does know her plans. I'm just saying that since it was apparently a surprise to many in the legislature about Brown's departure, Rosenbaum wouldn't have even thought about it until now.

    Although I'd be surprised to see her run for the Senate. She's in a great leadership position.

  • (Show?)

    I should have also said I knew that about Patton Price, since I've received at least one e-mail from Patton during the session. Rosenbaum's committee was hearing a bill that was important to me - same day voter registration.

  • (Show?)

    And hey--if Rep. Rosenbaum had said "I am not going to run," I would be passing that along. My point is not that it is impossible that she would do it, only that those who are taking it as a foregone conclusion are talking out of their asses. That being said, I would be very surprised if she took a serious look at that seat.

  • JLI (unverified)
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    If Hillary Clinton cannot win the loyalty of her own husband, how can she deal with allies of questionable motives?

    <h2>Her credibility is so far shot it's amazing she can be in this race. She is a mother with no motherly qualities; a wife with no wifely qualities; a woman with nothing womanly about her.</h2>
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