I am not terribly sophisticated in these matters, but I think there is a trend in the AG endorsements. Groups that tend to have issues before the legislature are endorsing Macpherson, while those that as a group do not (DA's for instance) are endorsing Kroger.

If G-mac Attac (trademarked) loses for AG, those groups that lobby will still have a friend who will probably return to the legislature (or even the governor) in the future.

Again, this may be obvious or way off the mark; I can't be sure.

Evan,

Do you think G-mac will end his political career if he loses the AG primary? He has accomplished too much to throw it in in the event of a loss.

He won't lose. No one in recent history has won statewide office in Oregon without being elected to at least SOMETHING beforehand. Kroger doesn't meet that test.

That is not a "test," it is simply a trivia fact. The reason few people start at the statewide level is twofold: very few serious candidates start at the state level and candidates who are not already established face certain institutional disadvantages. Kroger already has overcome the first problem; nobody doubts that he is a series candidate for Attorney General. In May, we will find out if Kroger can overcome Macpherson's institutional advantages.

You should not confuse correlation (few statewide officials start at the statewide level), with causation (because they have not held office, they cannot hold an office). Certain circumstances are rare, but that does not make them a "test." For example, in the 20th Century only two people have gone directly from the US Senate to the Presidency. However, barring a historic upset, this year will see a sitting Senator elected President.

To Jason, in my experience in the legislature, I can tell you that the DA's certainly have issues before the legislature. They employ a lobbyist every session. They advocate hard for increasing their budget. They often advocate for increasing prison sentences and jail sentences.

Some DA's don't like Macpherson because he has been open to discussing improvements to Measure 11, like a second look for juvenile offenders. Also, Greg has been a strong voice on the protection of due process, civil liberties and judicial discretion, and those views do not always jibe with the views of prosecuting attorneys.

Rep. Shields,

Thank you for your take, but unfortunately, your theory does not correspond to the candidates’ positions. On Measure 11 Kroger and Macpherson have the same position. Both candidates support Measure 11 but both candidates are not very happy with how it treats juvenile offenders. Furthermore, Kroger has made defending civil liberties and due process one of the five cornerstones of his campaign and made keeping people from falling into the criminal justice system the centerpiece of his anti-meth platform. In contrast, Macpherson, by focusing exclusively on drug courts, has made sure that the criminal justice system will have to be the centerpiece of Oregon’s drug policy.

I would add that I don't think the distinction of having legislative needs is an elegant explanation for what candidate was endorsed by what group. Any group or official that has the clout to give a meaningful endorsement is going to have needs and priorities for the legislature. Kroger has been endorsed by the SEIU, OEA, the Carpenters Union, e Quality Giving (a prominent GLBT rights group), and the Sierra Club (among others), and all of those groups have legislative priorities and needs.

Insider, prepare to see Kroger smoke Macpherson. ...Which is disappointing, because G-Mac Attack™ is an awesome nickname for an AG... but not so disappointing on any other level.

Jason, if G-Mac Attack™ loses this primary by a wide margin, he will find it severely difficult to raise funds for any other race. If he wants a political career after this, he'd better campaign like crazy between now and the primary and at least make it a squeaker.

On a side note, how cool would it be if every time the AG won a case in court he just yelled, "Aw yeah, G-Mac Attack!™ Boo yah!" Especially if the case was against another state or something, with a decidedly un-cool AG. Also, Jason gets a royalty check each time he says it.

Also, I just have to say that Stranger-Hunter is an awesome name. It sounds like a job title in a particularly militant colony of Amish people...

Jakob: I saw some English tourists pokin' about the barn. Zedidiah: Well, now, we can't have outsiders privy to our world, can we? Jakob: You reckon they've seen too much already? Zedidiah: Aye... I'll go fetch the Stranger Hunter.

(With all due respect to Ms. Stranger-Hunter, who I'm sure is a very nice person and proably not a militant Amish person.)

JHL: Hilarious stuff.

Evan,

What are you talking about? I respect Rep. Shield’s opinion, but what he wrote is not backed by evidence, and is actually contradicted by the position of the candidates. He specifically cites the juvenile offender parts of Measure 11 as the reason “some DA”* do not like Macpherson. However, on Measure 11 generally, and the juvenile offender part specifically, Kroger and Macpherson have identical positions. Kroger’s criticism of the juvenile offender section pre-dates his run for Attorney General. For the mandatory minimum part of Measure 11, Macpherson and Kroger are both of preserving mandatory minimums for violent offenders.

Like Greg Kafoury, Rep. Shield implies that Macperson wants to do a major change to Measure 11. However, there is literally no evidence for this in public. Macpherson has put out no policy paper on changing Measure 11, he defended it at the debate, and as Chair of the Judiciary Committee he made no move to change the law. When Macpherson spoke in front of the DAs, he defended Measure 11 as working because of the way prosecutors apply the law. It is possible that Macpherson is saying something else behind closed doors, but that is fairly irrelevant to those of us who are regular voters and not connected insiders.

There is a more elegant explanation for why the DAs prefer Kroger. They probably think he would be a better Attorney General and as prosecutors themselves, they respect Kroger’s experience with the US Attorney’s Office.

*Note, he does not claim that they are the DAs that endorsed Kroger.

P.S. I am not actually anonymous.

JHL: Aye and blessed be. The Stranger Hunter is pleased.